So we are predicted to have the highest death toll in Europe, due to systemic errors made by this government. Do you trust the government to get us out of lock down safely?

[ssd]

I don't. They've f**d up too much. NHS managers are begging for PPE, NHS workers are dying.

This government have really really let us down.

We are predicted to have 40,000 deaths by the end of this.

The only silver lining is is that Labour might get its act together now Keir Starmer is in charge. Things can't get any worse.

And if any tory bots start saying 'at least it's not Corbyn'.. Well save your breath. No one could have made a bigger mess than Boris and Co.

@PlanDeRaccordement, seriously how many times do I need to repeat this??

I said we are predicted to have the highest death toll in Europe.

Predicted... Not today's figure.

I'm not saying that again, if posters don't want to actually read the thread title that's up to them.

@ChardonnaysPetDragon sorry i misread your post - Thought that was your post.

@midgebabe but what you are describing - keeping it under control - is exactly why we are in lockdown. We are keeping it under control. We will not stop it though.

@PlanDeRaccordement those figures for france are not hosptial figures, they are hosital and care home for bumped up. THe uk is higher than France. FRance around 11,000 uk 14,000

@ssd I predict we won’t. But that won’t make nice media click bait. You are being pulled in by speculative media headlines.

I find the three day rolling average graph really helpful to show the curve of the disease in each country. It’s easy to see that the 40,000 projection is probably worst case scenario. The graph shows that the peak in U.K. was hit over Easter weekend. There will probably be a last successive lower upticks, but the overall trend will be downwards on deaths. If that holds true like it had for other nations, the total should come in around 20,000-25,000 deaths, not 40,000.

It is not under control. We are coping but not got under control. We are getting it under control. We have stopped all none urgent NHS procedures , and scaled up hospital beds . NHS staff are working flat out , relying on just in time delivery of scant PPE. They are coping, but the virus is not under control within the UK yet.

It's like,when you first capture a wild animal... you would not say it is controlled at that point.

The total will be double the peak. And that is only deaths in hospital, and there is the prospect of a second wave to add to that.

A real figure of 50,000 dead will be a result.

why have people died because it's a virus with no cure and limited treatment options . the hospital aren't full to capacity yet.
The derate isn't helped by the fact we are one of the unhealthiest nations in europe so common sense would tell you we WILL have a high dead rate .
Dreading when we have the end of lockdown because all we will have is every fucking expert telling us where there went wrong .
There is no safe end of lockdown it's a virus with no cure unless you isolate forever everyone is at risk
PPE do people not watch the news there is a global shortage off ppe the world has never experienced anything like this and on this scale . So while they recon the tories are completely responsible for the shortage can't believe it would of been different with any other government it's worldwide .
Honestly poster say tories are make a mess of it then says corbyn wouldn't of done any better .

"The test will enable you to trace all possible people who have been in contact with a positive so that they can isolate before they infect others , whilst waiting for a test"

So say an NHS worker has the virus. You are going to track down all the people they had contact with for the last week or two? Including in supermarkets and on the tube? The test isn't even conclusive when you do it.

Even if you could track down those people they have had time to infect others in the meantime so you need to ask them to list all the people they had contact with in the previous week or two.

This kind of thing might work on day #1 when a passenger arrives in the UK with a virus.

Testing will have its uses, but is not the solution to our problem.

@Bool, media click baits??

You obviously know more than the experts.

What are you basing your prediction on?

Humpthries, my figures are from today’s WHO situation report which include all deaths available to be reported. They’re not say, NHS or hospital deaths only. Every week the U.K. total is revised as the ONS non hospital deaths are added in. There is a 24hr time delay though for WHO situation reports, so this 17 April report doesn’t show anyone who died last night or today.

www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200416-sitrep-87-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=9523115a_2

Not sure what you mean France around 11,000, UK around 14,000 which deaths are you excluding?(and why would you exclude any deaths from Covid? Does it matter where people die?)

WHO situation report shows that France reported 17,146 and U.K. 12,868 as of 1700 16 April.

Rumanian?

The only reason they’ve had to bring Romanian fruit pickers over is because no one here will do it.

@ssd The point is NOBODY knows. That was my point. It’s all speculative. I think this. You think that. We predict this etc etc. But the media will pick the one that makes a good headline

@ssd
Don't you bloody dare imply that I or anyone else is ignorant because they disagree with you.

It's like sodding Brexit all over again.

There is no need for you to sink to the level of insulting other posters, just because they happen to have a different viewpoint to yours.

“The total will be double the peak.“
And
“A real figure of 50,000 dead will be a result.”

Are mutually exclusive since the peak was last weekend when around 11,000 was the U.K. death toll. If the total will be double the peak, that’s 22,000 not 50,000

The UK has a population of around 55 million people and has now reached a shocking death rate of 14,5000.

Are you Priti Patel?

The UK gov wasted time in early March - they should have locked down sooner. They can’t seem to provide NHS staff with adequate protection- which means the virus still manages to spread and more lives are at risk. They fail to include the care home deaths in their stats until they are forced to. They issue a badge to make up for lack of PPE for carers!! I think our stats will be dreadful and we had time to see what lay ahead. Tory bots can try to gaslight us all they like, we’re going to keep stating the facts.

OP- so who predicted 40,000 deaths and that U.K. would be worst in Europe? And what is the basis of their prediction?

Bloody Rumanian fruit pickers only this week.

UK people don't want the jobs, shall we all just starve? Or is allowing a set number of people to come and help with our harvest (remembering imports will be affected so we are relying on our own produce more than ever), worth the small risk? People are very focussed on covid, forgetting the other functions and things which are affected by total lockdown etc.

@user1471448556 why should we have locked down sooner? Based on what? We haven’t overloaded the NHS so what do you base this on?

“They fail to include the care home deaths in their stats until they are forced to.“

That’s blatantly untrue. They report the NHS hospital deaths daily because the information is available. The ONS then goes through every death certificate to count deaths in the community/care homes but because it takes a few days to do a death certifucate, these numbers are only available weekly. They are added in regularly.
It’s the time it takes to report and log the death, not refusing to count them and then being “forced”.

We have stopped all none urgent NHS procedures So have other countries, it's not just here.

As I said on another thread, it's pointless and far too early to decide whether the UK government had the right approach.

OP who predicted the 40000 deaths please? I can't see this information anywhere. Or are you just hoping for that number of deaths? For what it's worth we are supposed to be in lockdown for another 3 weeks, at least. People are already bored, restless and 'breaking the rules' If we had locked down any sooner then people would have been restless and keen to get out sooner which is what the government wanted to avoid during the peak.