So we are predicted to have the highest death toll in Europe, due to systemic errors made by this government. Do you trust the government to get us out of lock down safely?

[ssd]

I don't. They've f**d up too much. NHS managers are begging for PPE, NHS workers are dying.

This government have really really let us down.

We are predicted to have 40,000 deaths by the end of this.

The only silver lining is is that Labour might get its act together now Keir Starmer is in charge. Things can't get any worse.

And if any tory bots start saying 'at least it's not Corbyn'.. Well save your breath. No one could have made a bigger mess than Boris and Co.

By get out of lock down safely I meant ease us back into the workplace, schools etc in a timely and safe manner. Which I don't trust the government to have a clue how to manage, looking at how they dealt with this at the start.

We won't know until about a year from now, when everyone counts the number of deaths this year compared to the number of deaths in previous years in the same period. That's the only way to eliminate all the differences in the data. It's unlikely to be much different between similar European countries.

The only thing this government can be trusted for is lying and lining their own pockets whilst they fuck everything up.

Can you explain yourself?

So i need to explain myself but you started a thread about hypothetical death rates. Plus you haven't answered my question as to what death rate would be acceptable & I did ask you first

I said we are predicted to have the highest death toll in Europe, in my op, not that we have that right now.

But no link or anything.

??

I cant see how we would possibly get away with just 40K deaths.
This will not stop until vax or immune.
If only 1% immune now thats at least 59% more to go.

@ssd

This was your post & question, not mine. Are you confused?

So we should be happy that we have the predicted highest death toll in Europe then?

By get out of lock down safely I meant ease us back into the workplace, schools etc in a timely and safe manner.

So what is the timely & safe manner?

@tontie I didn't say they had less right to be out at all, I just commented on the volume of traffic being not much less than pre-lockdown and that surprised me and looked different to other countries.
I have no reason to think they weren't all essential trips, like I said maybe we all picked the same day to do shopping/essential errands but the roads looked hardly any different to pre-lockdown in a lot of areas, which just wasn't what I was expecting.

I agree with you in the main OP. But having lived in France, Spain and Italy I have friends and close family in all of these places, and many of them are saying similar about their own Governments. Not all, of course, but probably an equal split to here.

I've seen people on here saying we should have forced lockdown much earlier but no one seems to be able to tell me how you encourage 66m people to not leave the house when 1 person has died in Italy.

Indeed. We don't have 'enforced' lockdown now - nor would I want this for one - but there was certainly general nervousness by the time most universities suspended face-to-face teaching on 16 March. The schools closed the following Friday. It was clear even then that the government were rolling out these measures incrementally, but earlier recommendations relating to social distancing and about 5 days' more grace may or may have made a difference at a crucial stage. We can't know. The lack of PPE is a major issue, though, and there are other variables associated with this mess. What's clear, though, is that comparing UK figures with the rest of Europe is an apples/oranges exercise. There is no other city population on the European continent even approaching the density of London. Areas like New York give a far more accurate picture. Interesting, though, that Hong Kong has apparently got off lightly by comparison.

I am still astonished at the lack of common sense demonstrated by many people though. Piling into pubs on the day they were to be closed ...

Yet the government itself has expressed astonishment that such a large swathe of the UK population has complied so readily with the extreme restrictions on our daily lives. And even they had allowed for a far larger contingency when handling their response to this crisis. The police have been sharing photos of empty motorways on one of the busiest holidays of the year. The vast, overwhelming majority of people have been both considerate and sensible. But we can't let that get in the way of watching exactly how many times the neighbours leave their house, and attempting to police their behaviour from the lofty pinnacle of the moral high ground, can we?

The UK has a population of around 55 million people

No we don't. It's 66 million, only 11 million out I suppose

Sweden with a population of 10 million has has 1400 deaths. The government didn’t take the pandemic seriously and have been heavily criticised. The amount of deaths against other Scandinavian countries is considerably higher.
For all you know this may only mean that they have had a higher death toll upfront which has brought them a little closer to herd immunity than Denmark/Norway and therefore reduced the number of deaths later compared to those countries.
People are making assumptions based on inadequate data.

OP, don’t you mean 5th highest death toll in Europe? Because Italy (21,647), Spain (18,579) and France (17,146) have higher death tolls than the 12,868.

Yep, and that was before the new figures from Belgium, I think, though I might be wrong. been working all day, haven't had the time to look at that.

Predictions are just that, predictions. Might never happen.

There is never going to be the ‘perfect’ answer. We need hindsight for that.

We also have to take in to account the different ways our societies run, population density, weather, health systems, etc. I think every country is responding in its own way to a new situation.

(Sorry for typo, meant 4th highest death toll not 5th. I promise I can count)

OP, even if you look at death toll per 1m in population, the U.K. is behind Italy, Spain and France
Italy- 400 deaths per million people
Spain- 360 deaths per million people
France- 275 deaths per million people
U.K.- 200 deaths per million people
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

@ChardonnaysPetDragon those are not hospital figures for France. France has around 11,000 deaths in hospital so lower and they believe they have reached the peak and are going down so further along the curve.?

Sorry, what?

I never mentioned France, I thought?

@MeganBacon yes bang on

"To get out of lockdown safely we need test trace and isolate" using our Star Trek Tricorders presumably?
We can test you, send it to a lab and hear tomorrow that it's negative even if you caught it yesterday; So we'd need to test the whole country daily.

exactly @marielvanarklestinks

"I said we are predicted to have the highest death toll in Europe, in my op, not that we have that right now." well come back when it's reality and not someone's guess.

None of the estimates are fixed anyway. They say "IF this happens and IF we did this then we might have this result"

Umm yes someone could of made a bigger mess, his name Corbyn. I am not a Tory voter but I’d take Boris over what would of been Corbyn any day!

Eloquently put.

No you don't need to test everyone daily. We are trying to control not eliminate , because there are too many ways it can re enter a country

The test will mean that people who have colds won't need to self isolate.

The test will enable you to trace all possible people who have been in contact with a positive so that they can isolate before they infect others , whilst waiting for a test

This stops it spreading out of control ,and it it's not out of control you can be reasonably sure most people don't have it so you don't need to test them

You test everyone who could possibly have it, which is not everyone in the country every day

@lasttraineast agree with all you say. I also cannot get my head around how test and isolate will work and be practical at this stage of the pandemic. I just don’t get how given the number of asymptomatic people.

And yes let’s come back at the end when this is done. It is not possible to make assumptions so early on. But let’s not let that get in the way of a good media headline and subsequent rant.