Social distancing to be the norm "until there is a vaccine"

[Frompcat]

So this is what Neil Ferguson has said today and seems to be being backed up by government distancing. But what does it actually mean, does anyone know? How can social distancing be maintained if schools open again? Will we be able to visit small groups of family? Or are they literally talking about things continuing as they are for 18 months.

I think people badly need some clarity about this. I don't believe the government don't have any ideas of what their options are.

It's been mentioned again and again. This lockdown is not about saving lives. There is no treatment for this virus. The ventilating of those who needs it is just a support. If your body can't heal, you will die. That's it. Ventilation is just there to give your body the oxygen it needs - it can't help you live.

The only reason for the lockdown is to ensure those who need a hospital bed don't get turned away because too many people are sick at the same time.

So, you may be let out of lockdown. You may go back to work. You may be able to have a semi-normal life, visit family, get the kids back to some sort of school. But if the figures of infection climb too high you will go back into lockdown. That's it. That's the new norm for a number of months. There is no other way to do it unless you can guarantee social distancing, sanitizing all the time and no contact between people - which is impossible.

If you think the lockdown is going to be over and you'll just go back to work, off on holiday, to the cinema, visit gran every week you are going to be very disappointed. You'll be able to do some or even all of it but not indefinitely until immunity or a vaccine arrives or we find an antibiotic that deals with it (like bubonic plague - I've never had a vaccination against it but I don't know anyone who has had it. But it wiped out millions of people in our country in the past. We don't see it now because antibiotics can help)

But what if there is no immunity? How will that work? We just let people out to keep getting it again and again, risking lives every time

Yes, that's what our parents and grandparents had to do before vaccinations were routine. There was always the risk of getting something like measles or polio. And going back further, before antibiotics, even a small cut could kill you. They got on with it.

@cologne4711 exactly. However, I'd add to that with the fact that, when these big illnesses struck the family would be put into isolation. My aunt died from diphtheria in the 1930's when she was 10 years old. My mum, who was 8 years old at the time, was packed off to a neighbour's house. Literally the GP came running down the road shouting 'get the children out - it's diphtheria' and that was it. Bag in hand, off to a neighbour for a few weeks. Her older siblings went to friends. The only people allowed in the house were her parents and the doctor.

That was the norm. Quarantine for a family if illness struck. Let out after whatever the normal incubation period was.

we find an antibiotic that deals with it

Antiviral

And/or, more vaccines and antibiotics to mitigate against the secondary infections which may be implicated in or exacerbate the 'second stage' of pneumonia.

Apart from schools having no space to socially distance the pupils
There’s ordinary jobs that you can’t actually do from 2m away
Hairdressing. Dentistry. Beauty stuff chiropodists chiropractors etc
Are we not having these businesses open for the next 18 months ?

I read in one of the papers this morning , I can't remember which one, that the death toll for March from all causes, including Covid, was lower than the average of the last 5 years.

The ONS just published death rates for the week ending 3rd April and there were 6000 more deaths in just one week than the five year average!

My son has a liver transplant so is shielded.
There is also the risk that he and other shielded people can't even have the vaccine if it isn't "dead". He can't have any live vaccines at all, so no MMR. Flu vaccine is ok.
He's only 5. It's a worry

@ofwarren Hopefully they’ll discover drug treatments too, and, of course, any vaccine will reduce its prevalence in the community.

But your worry is totally understandable. Wishing you and your son the best. X

If they ask older people to remain fully isolated for another 18 months the vast majority will either refuse and make judgements for themselves about the risks they are willing to take, or they will deteriorate in their physical and mental health to a point that they can’t come back from after the vaccine is introduced.

My mum lives alone, is 70 and has a heart condition. She is isolating and is coping, but only just. She says herself that she currently has zero quality of life, she is simply existing alone at home on her own. I honestly believe another 18 months of this would mean that I would lose her in her current form, in some way. And going out to select places and meeting up with people outside etc. will be a calculated risk that she and many, many others will I’m sure be willing to take. And I don’t blame them.

Leaving millions of older (and some not really that old, what is 70 nowadays?!) in lockdown for a year plus is no more practical than all of us staying like that. It really annoys me when people just brush aside in a sweeping remark that of course relating lockdown won’t apply to older people. Stop and think about what that really means.

@Rainycloudyday I'm 71 and like your mum, live alone. I have high blood pressure but don't have to isolate, but my god, I couldn't do this for another year or eighteen months.

I haven't touched another person since before the beginning of lockdown. I haven't hugged my children or grandchildren. Haven't played with my grandchildren or read with them, something they love.

I talk on the phone to my children and do video calls with them and the grandchildren but I'm horribly lonely.

I'm luck that I have a dog that I walk once a day and tbh I think that is what's saving my sanity.

I have to go to the pharmacy and the supermarket tomorrow, first time for nearly two weeks, it feels like a massive event just to get out for an hour or so.

You're absolutely right no one of any age can live like this for long without losing a part of themselves.

@pigsDOFly I think the balance is too hard. I’d rather take my chances

The vulnerable will be advised to isolate for their own protection, but of course they can choose to take the risk of socialising if they want to. They're adults and they should be treated as such. We all take risks everyday.

This is one of the most sensible threads I have read on MN since this began. Thank you!

The govt aren't going to enforce staying inside for the over 70s or shielding. It is voluntary even now.

I think there will be issue as time goes on because many vulnerable people might think, yes I can do this for a few months...but if it is a question of not seeing family for a year or more, they may prefer to take their chances. I don't know what can be put in place to help people avoid being locked down for a year or more, but maybe some thing can. Other than that I guess families and individuals will have to find their own way. Perhaps self isolating before visiting.

I don't think a vaccine will be ready before next summer at the earliest, although who knows. The things that might be game changers but may not be probable are huge progress in drug treatments to mitigate the disease using already approved drugs, and accurate antibody tests which may reveal a greater level of immunity than suspected. At the moment it isn't known if antibodies equal immunity but let's see what they are thinking. If some of us find out we have had it, it will make it easier to see vulnerable relatives.

Have I just been a bit unlucky in what I've seen, or does anyone else find some of Neil Ferguson's soundbites a bit sensationalist? I'm not saying it's impossible that some form of distancing might be recommended for the most vulnerable, but this is maybe the second or third time I've seen a headline like this and known it's from him.

@Mascotte Yes I think that's the way it's going to have to be for a lot of us.

If a vaccine isn't found, I rather think it'll be a bit like it was in earlier times. This virus will come and go and we'll end up with specialist isolation hospitals for the very sick.

Some will survive and some won't and hopefully at some point a treatment of some kind will be developed.

Meanwhile, we have to go on living as normally as possible.

Victorious - that’s his whole schtick.

@ofwarren Most of the vaccines currently in development (including all the ones which have started clinical trials in humans) are not the live vaccine type. Obviously nothing is certain but it is probable we will get at least one non-live vaccine that is effective.

Ah thanks @LilacTree1! I wondered if I was unfairly bristling at him but I shall continue annoying that it seems for him to be about getting a platform.

@HerewardTheWoke
Thank you for this. Hopefully they will be able to create a none live one as I don't fancy having to wait till herd immunity is created.

If there's no immunity
...then there can also be no vaccine!

victorious if you google him, you will find out everything you need to know

It ain’t good.

Of course social distancing will be the norm until there's a vaccine because we are not doing anything else to limit the spread of the virus.

The really interesting thing that Neil Ferguson said today is that we should be finding and isolating cases, tracing and quarantining contacts. About time. The more of this we do, the less severe social distancing measures we will need.

This is the way out of lockdown.

@feellikeanalien
I don't know what the answer is but I do think that the government needs to start thinking about their exit strategy.

So you think no-one has actually started thinking about it? Or is it just that they didn’t invite you to the meeting?

I’m sure they’ll be glad you reminded them of what they should be doing though.

I'd really like an antibody test. I had "something" but not sure if it was "it". I'm high risk, asthmatic, etc etc and completely expect if I get it to be one of the ones hospitalised....

So without knowing if I have by some miracle had it... how can I send my children to school knowing it might kill me?! And how would it be fair to keep them in the house for a year knowing their friends were at school?! We are good at washing everything etc but we know full well those that live near us don't comply and we're relying on that aren't we.

I am so so scared I'm just waiting a few months til my death..

@victorioussponges not just you, he reminds me of some of the doomier posts on here.