Social distancing to be the norm "until there is a vaccine"

[Frompcat]

So this is what Neil Ferguson has said today and seems to be being backed up by government distancing. But what does it actually mean, does anyone know? How can social distancing be maintained if schools open again? Will we be able to visit small groups of family? Or are they literally talking about things continuing as they are for 18 months.

I think people badly need some clarity about this. I don't believe the government don't have any ideas of what their options are.

feel this.

The strategy is still herd immunity, while keeping the impact on the NHS manageable. That means that we will need to maintain some kind of social distancing to enable that. Or, have everyone use a vaccine when it becomes available.

We will not be in total lockdown for much longer than the three weeks. We may return to lockdown as and when the NHS requires, but social distancing, good hygiene and common sense will go a long way to keeping things manageable.

This virus exists. We need to learn to live with that and take appropriate measures to control it.

A vaccine isn’t guaranteed though. I don’t think there has ever been an effective vaccine for a coronavirus before and long term immunity is questionable.

I read in one of the papers this morning , I can't remember which one, that the death toll for March from all causes, including Covid, was lower than the average of the last 5 years.

It's been exceptionally mild weather. Fewer RTAs, presumably fewer other infectious diseases. I'm not surprised by that.

I think lockdown will be gradually eased eg shops re-open, but there’ll be distancing enforced in shops and workplaces. They’ll probably ban large gatherings too.

So we’ll have a version of normal life at least. But we’ll have to keep the virus in mind all the time and act accordingly. If we can do that, then we might be able to have more freedom. If people start acting like idiots, then we’ll have stricter controls again.

I think Dr Ferguson should f-off. He now seems to think that he's an expert on the economy, mental health, and impact on other health outcomes as well. Oh,no, he didn't mention any of those in the bollocks he spouted, did he.

We cannot continue as we are without many many people dying from non covid causes. People are not getting the treatment they need for other conditions. We are also going to see an epidemic of suicide and self harm.

Things will have to be balanced.

And meanwhile we loose our jobs, our homes, our children's future. Yes people are dying but 91% of those who have died were already seriously ill. We as a country need to decide what death toll of healthy individuals is acceptable vs economic ruin for everyone. It's a tough choice but a very necessary conversation. There's no guarantee of a vaccine ever!

I’m quite heartened by this thread.

It acknowledges that yes, people die! Which is forbidden on many threads.

And most people do recover. A huge majority. Most people would be happy with the odds if given for any other illness.

But what if there is no immunity? How will that work? We just let people out to keep getting it again and again, risking lives every time??

What else is there to do @DozyDonkey?

DozyDonkey

Yes, because there is no other alternative

Is there any other way out of lockdown rather than telling vulnerable to continue shield? I can't think of any other way.

@DozyDonkey

Yes. That’s how it will have to work.

And people who think we’re all in lockdown until a vaccine is found have completely missed the aim of lockdown.

They absolutely won’t have everyone in lockdown for months and months on end, because they need to try to ensure that there won’t be a huge peak in the next flu season.

If there's no immunity, the risk of CV will become the new normal. Hospitals in developed countries will all get more oxygen / ventilation capacity ; more people will die earlier, as used to be the case from other infectious diseases. Various methods of treatment will be developed and refined , be that pharmaceutical or better methods for preventing and treating pneumonia. People will on the whole think more about hygiene.

There's a possible upside to the last point re hygiene - we may delay the emerging problems of antibiotic resistance if a side effect is fewer people picking up bacterial disease.

Ninka.

The point of the lockdown is to alleviate the stress on the health service.

But this approach still means that we will have lockdown on and off over a longer term. Or do you picture something different?

Many of those who are currently shielding for 12 weeks (particularly the elderly) may be unwilling to do so for any longer. My elderly FIL is in the shielding group and MIL has also been advised that she should not leave the house, to protect him. They are both sociable people who thrive on seeing family and friends. They are already mentally struggling. If they are advised to do this for 18 months, especially knowing that FIL's life expectancy is limited anyway due to his health conditions, I suspect they may well refuse to do so and just take their chances.

If we return to social distancing, does that mean continuing to work from home? I remember 'social distancing' as a commuter - tubes were just as packed as normal. So what are the government going to say, businesses can open but 'Where you can, continue to work from home'??

This is going to mean redundancies; no way can they possibly continue to furlough for up to 9 months?

I have 2 grandparents in the vulnerable category (one with a heart condition and one with pulmonary fibrosis) and I 100% know they will definitely not self isolate for 18 months. Just no way. One of them already isn't and it's only been, what, 3 weeks?

I also have a colleague in her 30s who is also high risk due to an underlying condition and she has said she would rather take her chances with the virus than lockdown for longer than 3 months. People really can't stand it.

My son has a liver transplant so is shielded.
There is also the risk that he and other shielded people can't even have the vaccine if it isn't "dead". He can't have any live vaccines at all, so no MMR. Flu vaccine is ok.
He's only 5. It's a worry.

If we return to social distancing, does that mean continuing to work from home? I remember 'social distancing' as a commuter - tubes were just as packed as normal. So what are the government going to say, businesses can open but 'Where you can, continue to work from home'??

Actually I hope so - the one good thing that has come from this is that dinosaur employers will realise it is not the end of the world if people work from home, and that actually it is possible in many, many jobs where it was previously deemed to be not possible.

I have had "the letter" and am in an at risk group - I do not expect normal life to resume for me till a vaccine has been found; but for others not so at risk I am guessing things will be relaxed bit by bit. Problem with vaccine of course is that the darn thing will mutate, so what works one week may not the next.

My OH died in February - I am so glad he is not around to see all this.

No, I envisage a series of relaxation and restriction phases. So not a complete continuous lockdown for months and months on end. It would be completely counterproductive in terms of the virus and related issues, and also utterly catastrophic in terms of worse effects on all levels of society.