When did it get here?

[Bigbird32]

I know there are lots of theories about coronavirus being around for longer than we think and indeed a lot of people who because unwell at the end of last year, start of 2020. My family all got incredibly poorly like never before in early December. Started with dc who both had insanely high temperatures, no cough but very lethargic and generally unwell for a week or more.

Then me and dp got a bad chest (we were both actually treated for chest infections as our chests and coughs were so bad). Then shortly after it spread to extended family who had been babysitting the dc.

On one hand I'm holding onto the possibility that we've had it, beat it and are now immune but obviously there is no way to know the difference between C19 and typical winter virus for sure so we are still being very careful. What are your thoughts on this? Do you think it has been in the uk longer than we think?

Well, if we believe the Chinese government that the earliest cases were detected there in mid-November 2019, then we can safely assume that the earliest undetected cases / cases which weren’t distinct enough from ‘flu or other viral pneumonia were several weeks before that. On that basis I find it vanishingly unlikely it wasn’t carried outwith China before February 2020. There are daily flights from Wuhan to Heathrow and to many other European cities, it’s not an unconnected rural backwater.

But who knows. I don’t think there’s any point speculating. We aren’t going to get much transparency out of China and we won’t be in a position to identify transmission routes properly until once we’re out of the firefighting stage.

There has been so many nasty bugs about this winter it's hard to say. My dd's school had to be closed for deep cleaning in December as lots had a weird flu type bug.

But I would guess Jan/Feb it would have been circulating in the UK. No one knows for sure though.

I had “flu” beginning of Jan. It felt like flu to start off with, high temp, sudden fatigue, I remember lying in bed feeling like I was sinking deeper and deeper. Then after about 3 days I felt fine which is why I am questioning was it flu?I find this virus very confusing as people experience many different things. I don’t know guess I’ll only find out when we have the antibodies test 🤷‍♀️

End of November/ early December I had the most awful bug.

Temperature of 40, couldn't keep my eyes open, aches, raging throat, coughing until I was sick, DS had it too at the same time. I was so weak I had to get a sick note to take 3 weeks off work (and I still didn't feel right after that)

If I had that bug now it would be a diagnosis of coronavirus, I really don't think it was CV as it had only started in China around that time but it was the most unusual flu like virus I've ever experienced! I think there was quite a lot of nasty bugs floating round at Christmas time!

Sooty it would be a diagnosis of * suspected* coronavirus

My very elderly dads care home was in lockdown end of Dec beginning of Jan for about a month. They said it was a sickness bug but a few visitors I spoke afterwards said their loved ones had flu / colds. My dad had tummy trouble , but it was only for a day or so.
A few colleagues of mine had flu over new year and they said they felt rough and were bed bound. Really poorly : wouldn't be shocked to discover they had Covid them and none of them have had it this time around either!
I doubt China have given us all the full picture.

I think it has probably been circulating since mid-January, possibly a bit earlier.

I could say the same. But also I could say the same about an illness last year, but it obviously wasn't around Feb 2019.
Surely most of the people who have already been tested thought they had it, thus got tested, but large amount were negative.

I am certain I read an article on BBC saying that the most likely patient zero has been in mid-January, can't find it now; they even gave his name and everything.