Lockdown Lifted Tomorrow...

[Wowthisisreal]

What would you do?

I think the commentary from UK Gov thus far has been fascinating. 4 weeks ago we were encouraged not to go to restaurants etc and to wash our hands more and we were aiming for herd immunity and we were following the best scientific advice and then BAM! If we leave the house more than once a day or we stop in a field and have a sandwich then we're doomed and we're dooming everyone else. Not only that but people are taking it upon themselves (and some police forces are encouraging you) to report anyone who does not comply - with the implication that they are putting others at risk.

How can the gov come back from this unless there is a vaccine? Surely the rhetoric of "stay home. Save lives" is so prevalent that we won't be able to go back to normal? Are we so compliant as a nation that Boris could turn around and say "Ok guys the NHS can cope now - you can go out now" we will just all do it?!

So that's it really... what will it take for you to be ok with going 'back to normal'?

I think the government line has been largely honest, which in part is why nobody is calling it out on its biggest lie:

"The more you stay at home, the sooner this will be over"

Nope, if we spread this as quickly as possible, it'll burn through the population quickly, kill a ton more people, but be done and dusted in 6-8 weeks tops with a few hermits catching it late on.

The current mantra will undoubtedly save lives (from coronavirus) but this could go on for as long as we take to invent a vaccine or treatment.

I understand that ‘save the nhs, save lives’ means prevent the nhs from becoming so overwhelmed that people - with covid, cancer, trauma, anything- are dying that otherwise wouldn’t.

So if the restrictions were lifted tomorrow I would understand that this means the nhs are confident. It doesn’t mean I won’t get it or that I couldn’t pass it on, just that we are out of a national disaster.

I don’t understand why people don’t get this. End of restrictions does not mean ‘all clear’

When lockdown ends I will continue to distance from my vulnerable relatives and wash my hands regularly. But I would be perfectly happy to go back to ‘normal’

I think people forget that they want us to get it. But in smaller numbers.

If everyone complies with lockdown, completely. And infection rates drop down to zero (or near to) we are fucked. We wont be getting out of lock down anytime soon. Because there will be a big second wave.

I have been told to expect to work from home for around a year. Our bosses dont see the point, in flooding back into the office, even if lockdown is lifted. Just storing up more problems later.

It's going to be lifted slowly, not in one go.

I dont think anyone really knows what they will do, if its lifted. So much changes on a day to day basis. What your plan is today might be completely different in 2/3 weeks.

If everyone complies with lockdown, completely. And infection rates drop down to zero (or near to) we are fucked.

Interesting isn't it. I often think this when i'm reading these bleating threads about seeing the family opposite going out twice for a walk, or horror over neighbors ordering garden chairs ect.

We are supposed to be getting on with gradually getting it at the end of the day. There wont be a Now We Are Safe for a looooooong old time.

@shitsgettingcrazy FWIW I don't disagree with you at all. You just see some of the posts on here and I think it will take a long long time for us to go back to 'normal' and the reality is the Gov need us to go back to normal soon otherwise the country will be on it's knees... but I'm wondering if the general population will be ok with that and comply.

Exactly @laiste

Wowthisisreal i foresee a LOT of threads here in 4/5/6 weeks wondering how to handle a mismatch between what different parts of the same family want. ''They want to rush over to visit but we're not happy to do that yet'' ect.

I think there will be rolling programme of rolling back the lockdown in the summer with a reimposition in the winter.

I am shocked by the number of people who think this lockdown will get rid of the virus. The second wave of Spanish Flu was worse than the first. The Government/Scientists expected compliance with the lockdown to be lower.

If lock down ended tomorrow - if my company was happy with me continue working from home I wouldn't change much at all. Perhaps short visits to friends where we could sit in the garden but I'd remain 2 m apart and I'd probably revert to 2 shorter dog walks per day. Lockdown ending wouldn't stop the fact we are in the middle of a pandemic.

This is the issue New Zealand are having to confront. They may (and only may) be able to stop the virus in its tracks with a few thousand infected and less than 100 deaths but they then have an entire country of people with zero immunity. They are talking about keeping the borders closed until a vaccine is found (no decision yet).

The only way to keep the population of the U.K. safer (not safe - people have to buy food and essential jobs have to be done) is to keep the lockdown in place and the government can’t do that because they would literally have people starving to death due to lack of money caused by the greatest depression the world has ever seen. They have to get people back out spending money which means reopening shops and letting people get back to work to earn the money to spend.

I’m just hoping they come up with a decent antibody test. It’s clear that at least most people don’t get the virus twice and that might give a better idea of who is safe to do jobs with greater contact.

You just see some of the posts on here and I think it will take a long long time for us to go back to 'normal' and the reality is the Gov need us to go back to normal soon otherwise the country will be on it's knees... but I'm wondering if the general population will be ok with that and comply.

In my company, its scared the shit out of the owners. At the beginning they were adamant that our field teams were key workers and we would carry on working. No home working etc

As it went on they changed to half of us home working, then all of us. Then conceded that most of our field teams are not key workers. Some are, and are working of the nightingale projects and other NHS work.

So most of the company is now furloughed. They know if they stick us all back in an office and put all the field teams out working (and all companies do the same) we will end up in lock down again. So I think they will be more sensible.

They will leave us working from home and slowly return the field teams. Starting with work that must be done, that doesnt involve breaking social distancing.

They have realised that for the company to survive, they absolutely cant just go straight back to normal.

I think that will be the case for most business and people. Find away to try and bring some normality back, whilst sticking social distancing and reducing risk.

I often think this when i'm reading these bleating threads about seeing the family opposite going out twice for a walk, or horror over neighbors ordering garden chairs ect

This is the thing. The ones shouting about susan from next door but one going out for non essential shopping, should be thanking Susan.

The government told the police to back off, because they don't want civil unrest but also because they dont want everyone to comply.

They have to be seen as saying they want everyone to. Saying 'well if most of you could stay in.....that would be grand' wouldn't work. So this is what they are doing.

Lots of people seem to forget the idea of lockdown was to stop the NHS becoming overwhelmed, which has largely happened. The idea wasnt to stop people catching it.

My understanding is that they want us to get it so herd immunity is developed, but at a controlled level so the NHS isn't overwhelmed with severely ill patients.

Then as the amount of deaths and infections decrease and the hospitals empty out, the lockdown will be slightly relaxed.... so maybe the shops can re-open but not cinemas, theatres etc.

This will probably cause the infection and death rate to increase again... and so depending on how much it increases will dictate the next move..... i.e back to full lockdown as the NHS is getting overwhelmed again and herd immunity hasn't developed yet.... or relaxing the rules further as the death/infection rates have remained static or dropped again

Is there an argument for continuing to 'shield' those needing it or increasing 'shielding' to include those vulnerable and letting everyone else get on with it?

A few weeks ago there was talk of everyone classed as vulnerable isolating for 12 weeks then it was changed to those who require 'shielding'. That pretty much tells me that the government do want us to get it and are (in theory) happy with some collateral damage.

I'm just really interested in the psychology of the general public because I just don't think people will be comfortable with this after the gov party line of the last few weeks. I could be wrong! The thing is my rudimentary understanding of the economy is they for it to be healthy we need to be spending money on frivolities and not basics (very brief summary but hopefully you get the gist). And furlough is only until end of May etc etc.

But you're right. Testing is key... and we apparently seem to be doing sweet fa.

@Talia99 I happened to read about NZ yesterday as well and I must disagree with you - I think their model looks good but only time will tell.
They have entirely shielded the whole nation and now closed their borders. Anyone coming in needs to be quarantined for two weeks. This can work until a vaccine is out . The country is up and running now and everyone can go to school and back to work as the whole country is self isolating from the outside world. The virus inside Nz is under control. The only problem here that I can see with their system is that their economy runs on tourism. They get around 4 million foreign tourist a year. Their economy will take a hit but on the flip side who is going to fly/holiday in times like this? Not many, you can’t lose money you didn’t have . So I think the model is well worth the gamble.

what will it take for you to be ok with going 'back to normal'?

A comprehensive strategy of finding (ideally testing) and isolating cases, contact tracing and quarantining of contacts. Also border quarantine.

This strategy of just flattening the curve and making sure the NHS can cope is a disgrace.

If you just flatten the curve and don't reduce the area underneath it then you don't prevent any deaths up until the point the NHS becomes overwhelmed and then you save a few. Over 12,000 hospital deaths now and goodness knows how many more in the community. None of those people died because the NHS became overwhelmed. They just died.

My impression from reading around is that the NHS now has plenty of ICU beds but an extremely stretched and increasingly traumatised workforce, including lots who are undertrained and inexperienced. Also as we all know, a desperate shortage of PPE.

The NHS is coping astonishingly well under the circumstances but it can't operate like this indefinitely. It can't cope with wave after wave of this while we all slowly catch it, except for the 1.5 million people who have been told to get in the fucking cupboard for the forseeable future.

We don't even know if people are immune after they have had this virus or how long that immunity lasts. We don't know how long a vaccine will take to develop or how effective it will be.

Very true. Hearing the nightingale hospitals are all but empty makes me wonder...

DH have talked about this a bit and said we wouldn't be rushing anywhere. We would let the kids ride their bikes as we have been sticking to walking only so that we can enforce social distancing. Thats probably it for a bit.

@Rhianna1980, I think you’ve misunderstood - I wasn’t disagreeing with their actions. In fact, since most of my family lives there with two in the vulnerable categories and a third working in their equivalent of the NHS, I’m delighted they’ve done this - my family members’ survival chances are much higher where they are.

At the moment, the government aren’t letting non-NZ residents in at all - the question now is whether they can keep that up (bearing in mind how much of their income is dependant on tourism) until a vaccine is found. If the government decide that’s for the best and that means I can’t go and visit my family this year I’m fine with that to keep them safe.

People just do not have a handle on the comparison of the numbers involved in the capacity of our health service compared with the amount of people it would take to gain herd immunity, if it exists.

In order to treat every person who needed critical care over a 12 month time frame, we would need at least 40,000 critical care beds (based on a very optimistic 60% herd immunity and 5% intensive care usage). This is if everyone who needed ICU care only needed a week, and if they kindly spread themselves absolutely evenly over the year.

We upped our critical care capacity by about 2,300 recently. A deal with private health looked promising for about another 8000 beds (let's not question the overlap in staff) and we started with about 4000. That puts us on about 14-15,000.

So... we just need to triple the amount of beds and doctors we have, starting immediately, and we'll be totally fine. Let's get on it then!

And given that we can't triple it, and that those beds are already understaffed, and that it will be nearly impossible to spread cases out evenly and that herd immunity at 60% is almost certainly a pipe dream...

... where does that leave us?

The plan may be for us to avoid swamping the NHS, but what that means in reality is that we need to have some kind of measures in place either to trace, or to prevent full on spread, and that either a vaccine will arrive before most of us have had it, or we will have failed in preventing the NHS from being swamped.

There is no "back to normal" until we have either some technological way of preventing spread, or vaccination.

Lick every lamp post between here and downtown.

Celebrate.

@nellodee but don't we need it to spread? If these measures continue much longer how will anyone actually catch CV? Or are we saying we don't, that no one does and we wait until the vaccine? That's the bit where I'm confused.

That or a coffee and browse the shops. 🤷‍♀️

I've said before, the issue with the government's plan is that basically, however much it would like to fine tune its response, all it has for the moment is a big red button with STOP on it, and a big green button with GO on it.

Both of those buttons are pretty shitty, but we don't seem to be moving fast in the direction of having buttons with "10% max rate" etc. Having those buttons is dependent on having things like effective testing, good supplies of PPE, tracking and tracing technology, etc. etc.

Until we have those, I personally prefer the STOP button to the GO button.

Wouldn’t the approach New Zealand have taken mean that if the virus has no where to go it will just die off? If we had a complete shut down and nobody caught would the virus just die without a host? Probably stupid but genuine question

“ What would you do?”

Go and see my mum.

Then if personal visits are still happening in MP surgeries, I would have a very long discussion about how draconian it is that I’ve been barred from seeing her while skiing groups entered the country blithely unchecked.