Lockdown Lifted Tomorrow...

[Wowthisisreal]

What would you do?

I think the commentary from UK Gov thus far has been fascinating. 4 weeks ago we were encouraged not to go to restaurants etc and to wash our hands more and we were aiming for herd immunity and we were following the best scientific advice and then BAM! If we leave the house more than once a day or we stop in a field and have a sandwich then we're doomed and we're dooming everyone else. Not only that but people are taking it upon themselves (and some police forces are encouraging you) to report anyone who does not comply - with the implication that they are putting others at risk.

How can the gov come back from this unless there is a vaccine? Surely the rhetoric of "stay home. Save lives" is so prevalent that we won't be able to go back to normal? Are we so compliant as a nation that Boris could turn around and say "Ok guys the NHS can cope now - you can go out now" we will just all do it?!

So that's it really... what will it take for you to be ok with going 'back to normal'?

How is no one questioning the impact to our economy?
Before the official lockdown list of people on MN and in real life were insistent we were making a mistake by not locking down
"They care about the economy more than peoples lives"
...completely ignoring that the 2 are tightly linked. Mass unemployment leads to rising poverty, rising need for food banks (which are low on stock) lower MH etc, and in the long term deaths. Its really not as easy as simply selecting one or the other.
The fewer people working (and paying tax, NI contributions) the less money will be generated for any public services. It's a real lose-lose scenario.

We need to be lifting some restrictions now.

But I think the Government is waiting for Boris to return - to let him take the risk with that announcement.

It's unlikely the world can stamp it out. China are already getting imported cases and they are only allowing Chinese residents to return.

Those on the vulnerable list to stay home.

Schools should open and do a split week, 50% of children in 2.5 days and then the other 50% for the rest.

Shops and restaurants should open with social distancing measures

If you can work from home continue to do so. If not then back to work you go.

If the numbers spike again. To a level where the NHS will struggle to cope, then place some restrictions back in

Although I imagine that social distancing combined with some immunity (even if limited) will keep the numbers low enough given the new NHS beds and ventilator capacity.

I have a friend who is a nurse. Her hospital usually has 30 ventilators. Currently 20 are occupied and they now have 90 ventilators in total.

Even if we lift all restrictions now, it'll take at least 3 weeks for numbers to spike, which is enough time to churn out more ventilators, finish most of the nightingale hospitals and train redeployed staff to control ventilators.

think I need to help the tory bots out again and tell the how to get out of lockdown. Forget herd immunity, doesnt look like that is going to happen as immunity may not be present in those who have it mildly and will probably reduce quickly in those who dont.

First you reopen the garden centres so the plant growers dont go bust - but they have to operate as supermarkets are doing with one way systems 2 metre markings and someone spraying trolleys.

After this week you reopen schools. Parents who dont want to send children in can keep them home and not lose a place.

Businesses can then reopen if they can enforce social distancing they will be issued with immediate closure notices if they don't. Amazon may find itself rapidly issued with closure notices

Those over 60 are advised to continue shielding and the existing government advice to take vitamin D is given prominence on the news. Supplies of vitamin D drops or sprays are sent to all care homes.

Large events or gatherings of any kind continue to be banned.

We see how this goes and then maybe progress to more places opening.

Don't you think it will be a 'new normal' though.
For many many people their lives will never go 'back to normal' again for many reasons.

@TheDailyCarbuncle read the work that Professor Gilbert has been doing - she is using a tried and tested technology (chimpanzee antibodies) and she is very confident. She also said that these types of viruses don’t change very much, so she’s very confident of success

I've found my people, what a refreshingly civilised read this has been! Thank you

@sunnie1992
I can understand the idea of your suggestion of a 50/50 week for schools, and it might possibly work for some smaller primary schools. At the huge secondary I work in, it would be a logistical impossibility.
Either they stay shut or they open.
I can envisage schools opening June after the half term.

If the numbers spike again. To a level where the NHS will struggle to cope, then place some restrictions back in

I think this is exactly what will happen. Like turning a tap on and off. Hopefully we get through a lot of immunity before winter flu kicks in. We need to be opening up slowly very soon as the NHS seems to be coping. The peak will then affect various regions at different times.

We indeed have to hope very hard that we do get immunity but likelihood is very high if this behaves like other viruses and mutation is as low as they think it is.

The issue with a vaccine is not only that they can actually make one, or the time it takes to develop it. The issue will also be scaling it up quickly enough. Imagine 70m people to vaccine. And that’s only this country! The time to do that will be enormous. It won’t happen before the winter. It simply won’t.

Yes I agree they will lift some restrictions, wait and watch and then replace them if required. There is no other option to this is there? I don't think it will happen for at least three weeks though.
The other option is the 'let it rage through' one, discussed earlier.
The implications of that are dire.

Imagine 70m people to vaccine. And that’s only this country! The time to do that will be enormous. It won’t happen before the winter. It simply won’t.

I imagine it'd be like a flu vaccine, in that it's only offered to the vulnerable.

@BrooHaHa yes I think they will draw up a list in priority order. That’s going to be an interesting future debating point!!!

Politicians and celebs first obvs

I love this thread. I've ordered new school shorts for my son because I need to believe that my children are going to go back to school at some point.

My understanding is that healthy people are meant to catch this. The general population have been so compliant it is actually messing up the government's projections. Fewer people than expected are working (including key workers, because they have their children at home).

Well it's another three weeks at least! How does everyone feel about that?

We've already decided DH can work largely from home so will do so for next 4 months at least unless vaccine- dc will stay home. I'm a key worker so doesnt apply to me, but we wont send our children in in the first group I dont see the point in risking them now.

Apparently it will take a decade to vaccinate people

So many fit and healthy are going to die.

@LaurieFairyCake where did you see this?

@CruCru I was seeing this morning that 11th May is being talked about as a possible return date for some school years.

So many fit and healthy are going to die.

Not as a percentage, no. As an absolute figure, depends on your definition of 'many'.

This is an interesting read:

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-51979654

@LaurieFairyCake

What is your source for this information?

I think I read 10 years to vaccinate the popn on the bbc website.

If we go in ten waves of infection then thousands of hcp's - many of whom are healthy- will die at current figures due to the effect of viral load.

Problem is, if the schools do reopen on 11 May, the children will be taught one week on, one week off or for only part of the week. So that probably isn't going to help people who need their children to be in school for them to be able to work.

Supposedly people who ride the buses and tubes will be asked to wear masks. I'll be amazed if we can get masks - we can't get flour here.