Thoughts about the second wave?

[HelloItsmeAgain1]

May already be starting in China. I think Spanish flu had 3?

I thought it would restart August/September but not sure. Another locdown, then another wave around Christmas and a better start to 2021? Here's hoping!

The better year I'm hoping for, clearly not more waves although I do think they're inevitable.

When social distancing ends. I think October/November time a second wave will start and carry on into the beginning of next year. Hopefully we will be closer to a vaccine by then.

Perhaps an antibody test will mean people can start returning to work and keep some groups shielded. I'm just wondering when.

If only 5% of the population gets immunity each time there's a 'wave', then there will be a lot of waves.

What do you think will happen then @lljkk? Or do you think more that 5% will get it each time and we'll expect as many deaths again but more cases with more hospital care?

With Spanish Flu it is still out whether the third wave was just the tapering out of the second. Also think there will be a second wave in the Autumn.

I think we're screwed with regard to the economy.
The decision has been made not to take the utterly barbaric decision to sacrifice the mostly economically inactive elderly to covid19.
We only had horrendous choices. Every govt. is going to get it wrong...

except SKorea. I'm intrigued by them.

Yeah I think a second wave is coming. I predict November lockdown for God knows how long.

Also the lockdown isn't just about saving the econimically inactive elderly, there are a lot of younger people of working age who are vulnerable. My DP is vulnerable, he is also a high earner (top 10%) who luckily has been able to work from home so it's people like him who are keeping the economy going at the moment.

When the second wave comes depends on what we do next. The number of people who are infectious and the number of people who are immune when lockdown is lifted, and what measures are put in place to control transmission after lockdown ends (eg one or more of no mass gatherings, schools still closed, WFH if possible, self isolation and quarantine, contact tracing etc).

A simple example:

If each infectious person on average infects 3 people when no one is immune, if 10% of the population is immune when lockdown is lifted, that only reduces to an average of 2.7 people. If you still have measures in place that reduces the number of contacts each person has outside the household by 50%, that reduces to 1.4 people on average. As long as that number is more than 1, the epidemic will grow exponentially; if it is 1, the number will stay the same; if it is less than 1, transmission grinds to a halt eventually.

You also have to remember that the number of infectious people in the UK is currently a lot more than at the start of lockdown so the starting point is already part of the way up the exponential curve, IYSWIM.

SKorea now has the first reported cases of people being re-infected for the second time. The worst news possible