Something doesn't add up to me

[Greysparkles]

If the virus is as contagious as claimed by some, as in you'll catch it from sitting on the same patch of grass someone else has, or just walking through where someone sneezed earlier.

Why haven't more of us got it??

I've worked on covid wards for three weeks now. PPE is a basic mask, gloves and a tiny apron. Laughable. I haven't caught it yet despite being coughed on, vomited on (!) or even when patients are on oxygen that's going out into the atmosphere.

Thank you for your work on the frontline. I am glad you have not been infected and I know you are an anecdote of one but your story is encouraging.

Regarding the virus not being airborne, I have been reading that the science and clinical experience is showing so far that the main route of transmission by far is through large droplets that fall to the ground or on to surfaces within a short distance, but there are some small studies and anecdotal experience that suggest the virus may become aerolised and stay in the air for more than a few seconds if the room is not well ventilated and there are climate control systems such as air conditioning that manipulate air flow. For example there was one small study that showed via CCTV a man getting on an air conditioned coach in China who had the virus. A few people who were sitting a few rows back, further than 2 metres, were infected. All those on the air conditioned coach who were wearing a mask didn’t get infected. Also they showed a man getting on the bus half an hour after the infected bus passenger had got off the bus also got infected. It’s one small study of course and no firm conclusions can be made, but from my v basic layperson reading of studies, some scientists believe under very specific circumstances and conditions the virus could linger in the air. However, as said, the vast majority of transmission is through droplets from sneezing and coughing, possibly breathing too.

Unless another country has a reliable anti-body test it is impossible to say what percentage of a country has had it. We haven’t found one yet so very difficult to calculate numbers without it,

"One guest had it, he was a member of the wedding party so met everyone there. Every single other guest (85 people) later tested positive from exposure to that one person."

Wow. Every single person. That's very contagious. I would have thought that it would have been a bit random e.g. some people touching their faces after he coughed on them, but not all of them doing that.

"I doubt I'm the only one to experience it so mildly. "

A friend of mine lost her sense of taste and smell, which is one of the most common symptoms. She had no other symptoms at all, but had been in contact with someone who had it so it's quite likely she had Covid.

"I've always wondered why so many famous people have had it but no one I know has it or knows anyone who has it. Maybe it's just a matter of them having your money to test for it though."

Yes, and they travel internationally and meet a lot of people.

The science so far - and there is still much more to learn - suggests the virus is rarely transmitted by aerosols so I would agree highly unlikely to catch it in the air from where someone has sneezed a few minutes before. There have been a few small studies suggesting the virus could become airborne over a longer period in badly ventilated small areas with air conditioning systems or any climate control that affects air flow.

That’s not really accurate. ‘Science so far’ has produced a number of studies internationally on both sides of the argument regarding airborne transmission. The jury is still out and it will be a long time before any conclusion is reached.

Aerosol transmission is not the same as a sneeze. Coughing and sneezing produce heavy droplets that spray out and fall quite quickly. Aerosols in this case refer to tiny particles of exhaled air containing live virus from the breath light enough to linger in the air for several hours.

One study on flu found that almost 40% of people exhaled infectious aerosols so this is not a particularly unusual idea.

One thought that has occurred to me in all this is that there are genuine biological differences eg between northern and southern Europeans .

Bear with me , I know it sounds ridiculous, but as a norther European who spends quite a bit of time in Spain, I know for example there’s at least one common painkiller prescribed in Spain, Brazil etc that can be fatal for northern Europeans.

english.elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/06/inenglish/1541519618_515280.html

It’s banned in the UK and Sweden for example.

"When our little close of houses were out clapping on Thursday night, I shouted across to all 7 neighbours asking if they knew anyone who had it. Everyone said no."

Whereas I know about 8 people who've probably had it, a couple of them confirmed by tests and one hospitalised. It depends where you live.

"Just because on average one person is thought to spread the virus to 3 others, this really doesn’t mean that’s exactly what’s going on"

I read about a study in Wuhan where they thought each person was passing it on to 5 people!

@Feodora - you’re omitting the faecal-oral route of transmission, for which again, there are studies on both sides.

There does seem to be live virus shed through stools, but it’s not clear whether it’s infective that way.

Can the people who think this has been around since January and that a lot of us will have already had it mildly please explain to me why we now have this huge amount of people dying right now. We didn't in Jan/Feb.

That's very easy to explain. There's a tipping point, before which the cases just look like random illnesses. This virus has been around since November at least, so there will have been people here and there feeling unwell, getting coughs and a small number will have died. A lot of the people who died will be older and very unwell people so the assumption would be that the flu got them. It was only when Wuhan raised the alarm that people started joining the dots. Eventually the number of people infected was so great that inevitably the number dying also increased, it's a matter of sheer quantity.

The 10,000 number is used to scare people because it adds up to a big number all in one go. What the government fails to add is that even with a severe and early lockdown, those 10,000 people may well have died anyway, just not all at once.

Cytokine storm is something that can effect some healthy people who would ordinarily easily fight off viruses and may explain the deaths of the younger healthier people.

"Why is so very little still known about it?

Either Science is far less incredible than we are usually led to believe. Or something fishy is going on here."

It's quite new, that's all.

It's worth remembering as well that one study in Italy showed that 12% of the people who had died with covid died as a result of covid. The remaining 88% died of other illnesses while also infected with covid.

"One thought that has occurred to me in all this is that there are genuine biological differences eg between northern and southern Europeans ."

I don't know about this, but BAME people in the UK seem to be worse hit by the illness and not all of that can be put down to living in densely-populated areas or socio-economics. Look at the demographic profiles of the doctors who've died, for example.

@TatianaBis, you are right I forgot to mention that some studies suggest it could be transmitted through faeces too. It sounds like others suggest not?

Further to my comment on the small chance the virus could linger in the air under v limited conditions, this article argues that the evidence shows in most cases the virus is in droplet form and will not stay in the air. However, it agrees studies so far do not count out that in very limited conditions the CoVid 19 virus could become aerolised. Quotes from the article:

“The weight of the evidence suggests that the new coronavirus can exist as an aerosol — a physics term meaning a liquid or solid (the virus) suspended in a gas (like air) — only under very limited conditions, and that this transmission route is not driving the pandemic.”

“It’s more evidence that [Covid-19] is predominantly spread through droplets and not as an aerosol,” LeVasseur said.”

On infection rates generally, the article says: “Earlier this month, CDC (US) scientists reported that the rate of symptomatic infection among a patient’s household members was 10.5%. The rate among other close contacts was 0.45%. In the case of one particular patient, none of his five household members, although continuously exposed to the patient during the time he was isolated at home, tested positive for the virus.”.

www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-doomed/

I agree, OP. Look at the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was like a big floating test case. Everyone talked about the high number of passengers who died, but not many people noticed how few passengers got the virus. Given everyone admitted they had imposed lockdown much too late, and they were all in close proximity, eating and drinking together at close quarters and touching the same handrails and door handles, how come only 19% tested positive?

"The remaining 88% died of other illnesses while also infected with covid."

But was the Covid a contributory factor? I don't think you can necessarily tell, can you?

You can tell @Gwenhwyfar in that covid wasn't the cause of death, another illness was. So the other illness did actually kill them, they just happened to have covid at the same time, much like a person can have a cold while dying from cancer.

XH "probably" had it according to his doctor. The DC spent a good amount of time in close contact with him and yet haven't had any symptoms. They've been with me within any contagious phase and I've not had symptoms either.

Obviously I'm still taking all the precautions but it is all odd. It will be very interesting when antibody tests are available.

I think part of what makes the situation confusing is the fact that no matter what the mode of transmission is, covid is very contagious and has been spreading rapidly. That means that all the effects of an illness that would normally be spread out over time are all happening at once, making the whole thing seem a lot more serious and scary. So, for example, people of all ages, some of them fit and healthy, die of flu. But flu spreads relatively slowly (depending on the strain) so a person may not get it one year, but get it the next year and then die. If all of the deaths from flu over a five year period happened in three months, it would be just as scary (if not more so, as flu gets children as well older people). The sheer numbers are the problem and those numbers aren't necessarily due to the virus being 'deadly' - though it does kill some people, most people are fine. The numbers are due to lack of immunity.

The fact that so many expereince little to no symptoms and yet everyone is locked down (to suffer the multiple short and long term negative consequences of lockdown) is crazy

Even crazier is that it is the ones who want an end to the lockdown who are called selfish....

Thanks DailyCarbuncle
I'm liking your reasoning.

"The remaining 88% died of other illnesses while also infected with covid."

Says who TheDailyCarbuncle ? That's quite a bold statement, are you saying that 88% of the people who have died whilst being infected with Covid-19, have actually died entirely as a result of another illness which would have also mean't they would have died in the same time frame, regardless of being infected with Covid-19 ?

I don’t think you can get it by sitting just on the same patch of grass as someone. I think they would have needed to E.g. sneeze or cough it into the grass and then you touch your face after touching the grass.

But then surely if most people have it mild then it's brings the severity of this thing way down?
I don't even know what my point is here, I think I'm just rambling!

They don’t know how many people have had it though or how many get no symptoms, but the problem is even a tiny percentage of a lot of people is still a lot of people

If it as contagious as the experts believe then there is no way we couldn’t have been exposed prior to lock down

Yes and this is why there are 11000 people dead and counting :(