Something doesn't add up to me

[Greysparkles]

If the virus is as contagious as claimed by some, as in you'll catch it from sitting on the same patch of grass someone else has, or just walking through where someone sneezed earlier.

Why haven't more of us got it??

To add to people rightly sharing the response to a virus is very individual depending on such factors as viral load, strength of the individual’s immune system, another example is it is known 90-95% of poliovirus, many strains now largely now thankfully eradicated, infections are asymptomatic. As CoVid19 is a novel virus they are still learning about how it affects the population.

I read that during the Spanish flu of 2018 more younger people in their twenties and thirties got it severely as their stronger immune system went into high gear which can be too much for the body to handle. It doesn’t seem CoVid19 is making the immune system behave in the same way as the mortality rates are higher the older you get, underlying conditions aside.

"The biggest outbreak in NZ was at a wedding. One guest had it, he was a member of the wedding party so met everyone there. Every single other guest (85 people)"

This says there were only about 70 guests.... there was chain reaction to lead to non-guess getting it, I guess.

At one point none of the restaurant staff had tested positive, though. I wonder what the guests did at that wedding. I don't think the usual r0 is 60+. Seems like there must have been a group that had it to share around to much.

It impacts everyone differently, that's the problem.

I think I've had it, but were it any other year, I would have just gone about my life as normal. I had a mild temperature, a cough and sore chest/lungs for a few days, that's it. I didn't feel particularly unwell with it and after some paracetamol I could easily get on with my day.

I had no need to report my symptoms to anyone. I didn't need a test or to see a doctor. I was fine. Obviously I isolated and stayed home but if it had been any other year, I'd have though "great, another cold" and just gotten on with my life.

I doubt I'm the only one to experience it so mildly. But I count myself extremely lucky. If someone like my MIL caught it, she'd very likely die as she has diabetes and breathing difficulties. I'll happily stay home so people like that are safe as possible.

The virus lives on surfaces yes, like your mail, or your groceries, etc. but what science has not yet determined is how much of the virus is needed to infect someone. Just because the genetic material from the virus is found on these surfaces doesn't mean it's enough to infect the next person along who touches it/breathes it in.

That is why there's no clear advice on handling mail, packages, groceries, etc. It's well documented that the virus can and does survive on the surfaces, what's unclear is what constitutes the amount needed to become infected.

But surely just because you come into contact with a virus, doesn't mean you catch it. On average someone with CV spreads it to 3 people, even though the average person will probably come into close contact with dozens of people in the time they're contagious. Which means lots won't get it. Lots will pick it up, be sneezed on, touch their face and not catch it.

I've always wondered why so many famous people have had it but no one I know has it or knows anyone who has it. Maybe it's just a matter of them having your money to test for it though.

Bigchoc, there have been substantial criticisms of that Belgium/Dutch study. www.vice.com/en_uk/article/v74az9/the-viral-study-about-runners-spreading-coronavirus-is-not-actually-a-study

On possible airborne transmission there do seem to be a number of studies saying in certain circumstances and under certain conditions airborne transmission could happen, although at this stage they believe the majority of transmission is through droplets.

A well respected US health body, NAM, wrote to an enquiry by a scientist attached to the Whitehouse on whether the virus could be transmitted merely through breathing that: ‘while the current SARS-CoV-2 specific research is limited, the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing.”

I just discovered that we can, after all, get mild diphtheria...weird!

If you liked that, you'll love "cutaneous diphtheria". A revelation. Don't google image. 😂

You can't catch it from walking through where someone has sneezed. It's not airborne, it's droplets which stick to surfaces, unless you mean when someone has immediately coughed or sneezed in front of you.

I've worked on covid wards for three weeks now. PPE is a basic mask, gloves and a tiny apron. Laughable. I haven't caught it yet despite being coughed on, vomited on (!) or even when patients are on oxygen that's going out into the atmosphere.

There's a huge element of luck but with stringent hand washing and staying away where possible but it's inevitable we'll get it. It's not as simple as sitting where someone's who's had it is sat though.

More of us have got it though, they're just not testing! I know many people suffering with 'moderate' symptoms at home right now, but you don't get tested unless you go to hospital - which I have been very close to at times as I've been so ill over the past 3 weeks - and counting!

The cases are so much higher and it's not all 'mild' or 'hospital', there's a great deal inbetween and it's worse than flu!

Check out the 30+ thread or any of the lungs threads:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3872239-My-Lungs-Part-6

@Toomuchtrouble4me - What doesn't add up is the ridiculous story cooked up by the chinese government about how it started.

What do you mean? How do you think it started?

@spied - I agree with you!

Can the people who think this has been around since January and that a lot of us will have already had it mildly please explain to me why we now have this huge amount of people dying right now. We didn't in Jan/Feb.

Can anyone explain this?

I've always wondered why so many famous people have had it but no one I know has it or knows anyone who has it. Maybe it's just a matter of them having your money to test for it though.

I've wondered that too. When our little close of houses were out clapping on Thursday night, I shouted across to all 7 neighbours asking if they knew anyone who had it. Everyone said no.

From the 19 March 2020, COVID-19 was no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID

11K deaths is awful for any country but the fact remains this is a low mortality rate for our population of 66.65 million people.

I think "claimed by some" is the key point in your post, OP. There's a lot of scaremongering about it on here and social media in general, it would be easy to think you're going to catch it just by receiving a leaflet through your door or popping outside to the bins.

The scientific evidence still seems to suggest transmission mostly occurs through close contact - in households and workplaces, where you would spend a lot of time with someone and/or touch a lot of the same surfaces.

It's interesting, OP. My middle child had symptoms the week before it all started to kick off here in the UK. I dismissed it as 'just a cold' because logically, it was probably just that. But as well as the cold and sore throat he had the headache and was complaining of burning eyes which also seems to be a symptom. My eldest child had the cough and complained of a tight chest. I have had a very mild dry cough for the last few days (but bearing in mind, that would be 3 weeks after the other two and we have been in isolation for 4 weeks now) and the middle child who seems to have been most affected is still sometimes coughing. Youngest child not affected in the slightest - and he is high risk as an asthmatic.

Of course, it could have been just a cold and I could have picked something up on the wind, as it were (I have not left the house other than to post a letter or to walk in the back garden for those 4 weeks). But as soon as antibody tests are available, I hope to be able to get the most symptomatic child tested so we can see. I hope we have had it. I could be hoping against all hope, however!

11K deaths is awful for any country but the fact remains this is a low mortality rate for our population of 66.65 million people.

Agree, but isn’t it the case that if we did not lockdown, these numbers would continue to grow? I presume the current deaths are of people who got the infection just before/around lockdown.

I totally agree with you OP. My dh is a key worker so it seems likely he may have/will come into contact with the virus and bring it home. In many ways I would rather catch it now and be done with it whilst in lockdown and not seeing anybody rather than catch it in a few months time when I am at risk of passing it onto my parents.

Just because on average one person is thought to spread the virus to 3 others, this really doesn’t mean that’s exactly what’s going on, all nice and neatly and predictably. Just look up “Typhoid Mary” if you want to know how lethal some asymptomatic carriers of diseases are capable of being! Something “doesn’t add up” because there is not enough known about the virus.

@WellIWasInTheNeighbourhoo -

The biggest outbreak in NZ was at a wedding. One guest had it, he was a member of the wedding party so met everyone there. Every single other guest (85 people) later tested positive from exposure to that one person.

He was a guest, not a member of the wedding party.

There were 65 guests, not 85.

And that’s just not true. There are 87 people in the Bluff cluster. This includes other people infected by people after the wedding, not just wedding guests!

Director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said the Bluff cluster was linked to international travel.
Some of the 87 people in the Bluff cluster did not attend the wedding, but were contacts [including family members] of those that did.
The Bluff cluster has not only affected many households, but also some businesses where staff linked to the cluster had tested positive.
Among them are the Invercargill City Council - the workplace of the bride - which had about 10 staff test positive.
The 87 live at various locations around New Zealand including Southland, and in Wellington, where 12 tested positive as part of the wedding cluster, and Waikato, where 25 tested positive.
But ironically, there have been no reports of any Bluff residents contracting the virus, despite the waiters and bar staff who were at the reception living in the port town.

From www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120863226/coronavirus-bluff-wedding-cluster-now-the-largest-in-new-zealand

I live in London, and am a keyworker, and I would say well over 60% of people I speak to think they have had it. All have had some form of temp/cough/funny sinus thing/loss of taste and smell/burning eyes etc. Whether it's Covid or not, who knows, but it's certainly been common. Almost every agency I have had to deal with (Social workers/ care home staff/ bin men etc) are all working at approx 50% capacity due to the number of people sick or self isolating due to symptoms. So maybe it's just the area you live in?

And for whatever poster said "why weren't there deaths in Jan/Feb" - there were. Just the same amount we expect every year with normal flu. Up until last week, it was only 105 more deaths than we would expect with normal annual flu, so we wouldn't have picked up on the severity back in Jan/Feb when we all just thought we had the same "bad flu".

None of the regular staff at my Sainsburys have disappeared. You know the ones in contact with the public all day long. We are a hard hit county too.

It is all just a guessing game. No government anywhere knows what on earth they are doing. That was admitted by head scientist of Sweden on Newsnight.

What puzzles me is - science and medicine is held in such high esteem. There will now be scientists all over the world researching this disease. Why is so very little still known about it?

Either Science is far less incredible than we are usually led to believe. Or something fishy is going on here.

Out of my 300 Facebook friends, at least 5 have almost definitely had it. Extrapolate that to the whole country and it’s a million. Plus there will be more who have no or few symptoms. I reckon many many more have had it than are on the stats. The number of cases looks low because the testing has been so rubbish.

Also look at the stats for the Diamond Princess - 712 tested positive and less than 2% of those have died, and they’re probably older in average than the population as a whole.

I reckon it’s super-contagious but not very deadly. Disclaimer - this is just my theory.

" I would like to know whether the supposedly younger and healthier victims of Coronavirus generally seem to have weaker immune systems?"

One guy was a fitness professional:
www.channel4.com/news/all-our-icu-patients-are-in-their-50s-or-younger-frontline-welsh-doctor-who-recovered-from-virus