Something doesn't add up to me

[Greysparkles]

If the virus is as contagious as claimed by some, as in you'll catch it from sitting on the same patch of grass someone else has, or just walking through where someone sneezed earlier.

Why haven't more of us got it??

TheDaily. So, 12% of the people who died in Italy died of CV directly. Is that right according to the study?

I agree with you to an extent @ChipShopChaCha. Transmission does need to be slowed down - too many people getting infected at once will overload the healthcare system. But I think a full lockdown is a fucking bonkers way to do it. It makes no sense to tank the economy and push people into poverty, with all the consequences of that in order to deal with a logistical issue in healthcare.

There are so many potential factors. A couple of studies have even suggested that blood type could be relevant.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058073v1

If the 88% is true then we have massively overreacted to this. The economy will be a basket case. Deaths will occur because there is no money to address other issues.

The vulnerable should be furloughed and protected.

The frightened should have options too.

The rest of us should be allowed to fucking get out there and crack on if we'r willing to face the consequences.

Yes that's right @Bathroom12345. I'm trying to find the study now but I can't, I'll keep looking.

This is from the Office of National Statistics: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending20march2020

It shows that deaths registered in England and Wales up to the 20th of March were slightly higher than other years, emphasis on slightly higher. So covid is killing some extra people, but overall so far it doesn't seem like more people than expected are dying. That data isn't totally complete of course. However, there's every chance that death rates from the end of 2020 onwards will go up, not due to Covid but due to the lockdown.

In a completely 'normal' year an average of 1400 people die per day in England and Wales. Many of those people will die in hospital, where the chances of catching covid are high. So at least some people who would have died anyway are dying while infected with covid - it's a coincidence. There are definitely people who are dying of covid - there's no doubt about that. And there are some people who would have lived for a year or more longer if they didn't catch covid, so the illness has brought their death about sooner.

I was going to work for at least 4 days before I realised the symptoms I had were it, none of my colleagues got it from me, we were all pretty good with hand hygiene but we were sharing a computer keyboard.

The rest of us should be allowed to fucking get out there and crack on if we'r willing to face the consequences.

What are the consequences you are willing to face then? Dying in your bed with no real medical help? Or dying in a hospital where there’s a high risk that someone else could get infected by you and suffer terribly or die?

Dh and I have almost certainly had a mild dose of it. I work a few desks from someone admitted to hospital with Pneumonia who tested positive that same weekend I had intermittent fever and a cough, DH got it after me. We live with two adult teenagers who must have had it but no symptoms. None of us will be on any stats. I still have a cough and a bit of a wheeze 4 weeks later but feel fine otherwise.

This article mentions the 12% of cases that had covid as cause of death but as it's the daily beast it's not exactly covered in reliability. I'll try to find a better source.

www.thedailybeast.com/making-sense-of-italys-staggering-covid-19-death-toll

@ChipShopChaCha I agree, it’s actually pretty frustrating now I’ve had it that I’m effectively just waiting for others to get it too. I understand we need to not all get it at once as there will be that percentage of people who need help, but I can’t help tapping my foot and thinking hurry up

They were saying today that in Europe approx 40% of CV victims die in nursing homes, we are not even counting people who die in nursing homes. The numbers are not real, and won’t be without extending testing.

We have the mildest of the lockdowns as well so I assume that there are far more people sick than we are assuming.

So what you are saying TheDailyCarbuncle is that 11,000 people dying in a matter of weeks is perfectly normal give or take a few thousand here and there. That only a small % of those have died, have done so as a direct result of being infected with covid-19, the rest were going to die anyway at this time ?

What are the consequences you are willing to face then? Dying in your bed with no real medical help? Or dying in a hospital where there’s a high risk that someone else could get infected by you and suffer terribly or die

That’s a very unlikely possibility for a huge section of society. If we need herd immunity sending those who like their chances of being ok out onto the front line isn't the worst plan ever. It’s our best chance of protecting the truely vulnerable in the medium term, it also might calm the hysteria some of our number seem to have descended into if others ‘go first’

What are the consequences you are willing to face then? Dying in your bed with no real medical help? Or dying in a hospital where there’s a high risk that someone else could get infected by you and suffer terribly or die?

Yes, essentially.

Though I think that if medical staff don't have the required protection they shouldn't be expected to tend to the sick who risked it willingly.
I'd be happy to sign any waiver to that effect in order to be able to volunteer as an 'economy helper'.

There are some people who fear what we are going through/are going to face in the future as a consequence of lockdown more than they fear death.
I'm on of them.

So what you are saying TheDailyCarbuncle is that 11,000 people dying in a matter of weeks is perfectly normal give or take a few thousand here and there. That only a small % of those have died, have done so as a direct result of being infected with covid-19, the rest were going to die anyway at this time ?

What the ONS have said is that so far, weekly death rates haven't risen by much. That may be due to poor reporting, incomplete data etc. But it is likely that a significant proportion of the people who have died with CV would have died anyway. It's also likely that some proportion of the deaths are directly due to the lockdown - nine people have been murdered due to the lockdown and I know of one lockdown-related suicide. There will be many more of those in the months to come.

More experts popping up . Trust me it’s going round care homes and they are not getting to hospital and their deaths are not recorded as the virus . It is contagious , very contagious .

Yes, plus as Fruitsaladjelly says, we essentially need people to be out there willing to risk the disease for herd immunity.

More than 500 000 people volunteered to help the NHS. I don't doubt that even more would be willing to waive NHS hospital care in order to be able to at least try to live again.
And we need to stop the 'shaming' of us. We're the brave ones!

There are some people who fear what we are going through/are going to face in the future as a consequence of lockdown more than they fear death.
I'm one of them

And that is a wise fear, we have almost certainly already crossed the line where the loss caused by the lockdown will surpass loss from the virus.

There will also be deaths from people who suffer other illnesses and don't get treatment in time. That's particularly true of cancer sufferers who have had their treatment delayed.

I'd definitely put my hand up to sign a waiver if it meant I could get back to normal. Pretty sure I've had it already. If we go the way of Germany and need "immunity certificates" to get back to work, I will ask people to cough on me if it turns out I haven't already had it.

The death rate in young (genuinely!) healthy people is absolutely miniscule, though the media have been super irresponsible and reporting people who are clearly obese as "healthy" to try and scaremonger genuinely healthy people into fearing death - when in fact those people should be the first to go out and get herd immunity.

But it is likely that a significant proportion of the people who have died with CV would have died anyway

When ? that is the real question that you need to answer, because obviously every single one of those 11,000 was going to die, as we all are, at some point. What I think needs clarifying is, was that going to be in hours, days, weeks, months or years ?

The people saying "oh we can re-build the economy later" don't realise that poverty is the biggest killer of all. And the jobs we're losing won't just affect us in the UK - what about the workers in Asia who rely on our companies manufacturing from them? People in Bangladesh will starve if loads of Western businesses shut.