Is it just a matter of time until infection?

[PurpleThistles84]

My family and I have been observing lockdown since two weeks before it even began. I know it’s daft but it only really hit me yesterday that it’s really a matter of time until we get it, isn’t it? I went into lockdown with the attitude of, we stay in and we won’t get it, but we will really won’t we? Just a case of later rather than sooner. I am posting because I guess I’m hoping someone will tell me I’m wrong?

Just to say, we are not in the vulnerable category, however I have had pneumonia twice and it was horrific so I am quite frightened about catching it.

I think it is easy to catch if it has already infected 4-10% thats up to 1/10 people you meet

I'm not at all resigned to contracting it, nor am I resigned to my loved ones contracting it.
Once this period of lockdown finishes I will social distance in much the same way for the foreseeable future. I'll no longer use a supermarket or go to pubs or restaurants. I, fortunately, don't use public transport anyway. I will see my family but won't be hugging or kissing and I'll continue to wash my hands every half an hour and wear something round my mouth when I go out.
It's a highly contagious virus but that doesn't mean we have to lay back and accept catching it

Im not writing people off as less important. The point in my comment was when we are allowed to mix with others there's a risk to many people not classed as the most vunerable. High blood pressure etc. I was meaning why should these people have to go back to normal with this risk

The only certainty is that anyone speaking about this virus with certainty is being a bit of a pillock. We aren’t certain of anything at this point in time. Those people who are happy with uncertainty and want to get this virus sooner rather than later (when there will be more certainty about it) would be ideal candidates for the vaccination trials, I would have thought. You could be the guinea pigs agreeing to be infected deliberately and having possible vaccines (or placebos) tested out on you. That way, you’ll also have priority access to intensive care if it goes tits up and they nearly kill you.

itoldyouiwasill I think social distancing will be in place for at least a year.

The irony for me - and probably many of us - is that it would be better for me to get it now, while I’m out of work and can’t see my mum.

LilacTree - as there is growing evidence of people testing positive for the virus again, having already caught the virus once, and it is not known yet whether they are being reinfected or just succumbing to the same infection weeks later because their immune systems didn’t clear it effectively the first time, you can’t even be be sure of that particular irony.

@PuzzledObserver Exactly this. My eldest has cerebral palsy. I have no doubt that if the unimaginable happened she would be the '14 year old but don't worry she had underlying conditions' case in the eyes of the general public.

She is academically bright, witty and one of the most genuinely good hearted people I have ever known. This idea that seems to have been planted in peoples heads that underlying health problems somehow means no quality of life/ at deaths door makes me so angry. Its insulting

I don’t know the answer but I’m absolutely terrified of catching it. I’m trying to stay home. Been shopping a couple of times. I’ve felt unwell for days now but not corona. I think migraine from stress and not sleeping properly. I’m hoping that the schools do not reopen until there is a vaccine. I would keep my children at home for a year if I had to. We have no garden and I sleep on a sofa because we have no space. But I’d still stay home if I could avoid catching.

Walk - I know.

But here we are again. In the face of an inevitable uncontrollable disease, I’d like to live normally.

I think people will start to feel this as restrictions continue. If you can self isolate with lots of money and a big house, I guess it’s different, but most of us can’t.

I’m hoping that the schools do not reopen until there is a vaccine.

I think that’s really unlikely, not really an option to screw up the education system for so long either I don’t think. Maybe if your kids are only in the earlier years of primary it wouldn’t be so bad but not a satisfactory situation for senior high school pupils. There’s nothing that suits everyone is there. :( other than the whole thing just sodding off!

We're alright for space and garden but self employed so can't isolate for too long.

I can't for the life of me picture what coming out of lockdown will look like though. DH could probably go back to work (construction industry) without getting too near anyone. DD4 is in yr 1. When will she go back to school?

Wouldn't wish a class load of primary kids on any one unless they're actually gagging to catch corona :(

Cissyandflora do you worry about all the other things that could suddenly kill you or make you very ill?

You could be waiting years for a vaccine, and just like flu and pneumonia, it won’t be effective against all strains.

I doubt schools would stay closed until we have a vaccine. I still think they are expecting this to keep coming in waves for a while, now it has spread worldwide so that however good the testing regime, it will be hard to keep a lid on it, but it will hopefully better controlled and timed in future. They will definitely want to avoid a massive wave in winter cold and flu season. Wondering, as a result, if they will want to experiment with some kind of school reopening before the Autumn, to see what happens. You wouldn’t want to accidentally open the flood gates at the worst possible time of the year.

Opening everything back up when you are still seriously under testing and not tracking at all would be disastrous for both health and economy, I think, as it would completely undermine public trust and cause panic when cases surged again, and massive surges followed by major lockdowns are bad in all respects.

“ You wouldn’t want to accidentally open the flood gates at the worst possible time of the year.”

On that basis, schools should reopen soon. If predicted grades are going ahead for exams, those teens can stay home at least.

They’ve really painted themselves into a corner doing what they’ve done.

LilacTree - depends what you mean by soon! There are 5 months between now and September. And there will be another mass resurgence if anything is done too soon.

@LilacTree1- I am a worrier yes, but I wouldn’t say I’m on my own with this one.

Cissy of course you’re not alone in worrying

But this, or other new diseases, will always be a feature of life. I’ve had the pneumonia vaccine but still had pneumonia twice. What can you do? 🤷🏻‍♀️ Still got bills to pay.

We are preventing spread to ease NHS pressures. Current people who have tested positive for Covid 19 is about 85,000. There are 66 million people in the UK.

85,000/66,000,000 x 100 = 0.13%. At today's date that's a miniscule risk of infection although probably a bit higher in London. The chance of dyimg is infinitesimal.

I hope the end to lockdown comes very quickly and the country can get back on its feet again very very quickly.

There is no need for hysteria.

OhtheRoses thank you. I feel less alone now.

I’m hoping that the schools do not reopen until there is a vaccine

What's your proposal if a vaccine isn't forthcoming?

We are preventing spread to ease NHS pressures. Current people who have tested positive for Covid 19 is about 85,000. There are 66 million people in the UK.

85,000/66,000,000 x 100 = 0.13%. At today's date that's a miniscule risk of infection although probably a bit higher in London. The chance of dyimg is infinitesimal.

I am not sure I quite follow your point here. The people being tested are a minority of cases, the ones who are hospitalised. Even amongst that group there is evidence to suggest the tests are coming back with a lot of false negatives. Patrick Vallance said recently he feels the percentage who have been or are infected is single figures, maybe 10%.

I am not doom mongering about risk of death at all, but risk of infection isn't that low. Over time it's more likely than not people will get it.

We need to open lockdown before september, at least if there was another peak the nhs could cope. Keep everyone locked in until september heading into flu season would be a mad idea.

Based on the fact we are at 80,000 ish
have tested positive. There's still 65 million unconfirmed to have/not had it.

How can we go back to any normal if only such a small amount has had it. How do they know the second peak will be lower if 65 million people are going to be out and about.

I think the public need real facts first.

I want to know how many children have died and why?

How many people under 80 and why.

How many with no obvious health issues and why.

How many caught it in hospital due to already being sick?

Do the NHS workers who have passed have health issues?

I just think how can we send our kids to school knowing they could be carrying it home to infect us. Parents can't afford to me so unwell with young children relying on them for everything.

It's really concerning the lack of testing. The lack of explanation of mild cases. I want to know how many are asymptomatic.

Are they talking 1 in a 1000 or are they talking 1 in 5?

The way boris Johnson responded to the virus is a wake up call for everyone. He's familiar and we know who he is. He could have died this week. He was lucky to have a health care team looking after him. I fear many will die due to not being as important as him. We won't have drs checking up on us. It's really scary and we can't allow herd immunity. I'm sure every single person on here knows somebody who would be at risk of getting severely poorly.

The thought of catching it definitely fills me with dread. I don't cope well with a normal stomach bug. Can't imagine being boiling hot with burning lungs and struggling to get air in my lungs 😔

If the people being tested are those who are sick enough to go to hospital then surely you see it follows that those who aren't being teted aren't becoming seriously ill.