Is it just a matter of time until infection?

[PurpleThistles84]

My family and I have been observing lockdown since two weeks before it even began. I know it’s daft but it only really hit me yesterday that it’s really a matter of time until we get it, isn’t it? I went into lockdown with the attitude of, we stay in and we won’t get it, but we will really won’t we? Just a case of later rather than sooner. I am posting because I guess I’m hoping someone will tell me I’m wrong?

Just to say, we are not in the vulnerable category, however I have had pneumonia twice and it was horrific so I am quite frightened about catching it.

[EasterBuns]

Those saying a vaccine will sort this problem out, just stop and think about how long it would take to vaccinate everybody. I think at least a year and who gets it first, guess it would be in waves by vulnerability and whether your job is essential.

[jasjas1973]

Well tbf you don't know they won't get enough tests

Correct, i also don't know that there won't be a fly pass of Pigs over Buck house!
Just look at the numbers promised, be it on ventilators or testing? Way way short of the numbers promised a month ago, they are nowhere nr getting the 100k tests per day by the end of April nor anywhere nr the number of ventilators promised either.

We didn't act fast enough to procure either or act quickly enough on restrictions, as Johnson went for a Take it on the Chin strategy.

[Lexijayde44]

Iist admit the vaccine makes me feel nervous. Especially putting it into my kids.

[LoveIsLovely]

"because they will never have enough tests and the idea of carting someone off to self isolation, no matter how mild the infection, just isn't going to happen, you can do that with just a few infections, not with 100s of 1000s where would they go???"

Well tbf you don't know they won't get enough tests.

People just self isolate at home unless they need to be hospitalized. There are a few government facilities for people with no address (the people who are still bafflingly arriving at the airport).

[jasjas1973]

...because they will never have enough tests and the idea of carting someone off to self isolation, no matter how mild the infection, just isn't going to happen, you can do that with just a few infections, not with 100s of 1000s where would they go???

We will continue down the controlled herd immunity plan, hospitalisation and treatments such as Plasma therapy, though yet again govt seems to be lagging on this too :(

[LoveIsLovely]

@jasjas1973 Why do you not think the UK government will do similar once they have enough tests?

[Laiste]

I wonder what percentage of people will even want to take up the offer of a vaccine if/when it comes? Many will be concerned about the safety of what might appear to be a rushed vaccine.

Those who are not in the vulnerable category and haven't been infected may not feel it's worth any perceived risk and be happier continuing to take their chances unvaccinated. Those who are vulnerable due to ongoing underlying health issues may feel even more concerned about having it.

[jasjas1973]

But don't you have far more testing and can isolate away from their families and trace contacts very quickly?

We aren't doing any of that, we allowed CV to become endemic in the community before we had a fairly relaxed lockdown.

[LoveIsLovely]

@jasjas1973 So why doesn't everyone have it in Korea where there is no lockdown?

20 or so cases here today and most from people coming through the airport.

[jasjas1973]

Highly contagious, no treatments, no vaccines, not killed by warm weather....
So yes we will all get it as lockdown has to end very soon.

[iamapixie]

Probably, though there is no definite answer.
The lockdown is to flatten the curve to allow the NHS to cope with the particular symptoms shown in some cases. It would not have been put in place if C19 wasn't understood to be highly transmissible.
If that is correct, very large numbers of us, certainly in conurbations and especially in London, will have had it, with no, or very few, symptoms. If it isn't highly transmissible, there was no point locking down, with all its consequent negative effects, so we have to assume that the transmissibility data is correct.
Remember too that average numbers of deaths per month from all causes is c. 45,000, so around 1700 a day. It's just that we don't have a daily media countdown of those and therefore those deaths are only known to the family and friends of the deceased, not to the rest of the population.

[Egghead68]

At the briefings a few weeks ago they said that a rule of thumb is that there are 1000 cases for every death. If that rule of thumb still holds true about ten million people in the UK (approximately 1 in 7) have it or have had it now.

[LoveIsLovely]

Surely it's all about modelling. Fewer people getting it, fewer people to pass it on to, so fewer still get it and pass it on to still fewer people.

The problem will be when people start going to big events again like football matches or concerts.

[BatleyTownswomensGuild]

I don't think it's an inevitability this time round, particularly if you are observing lockdown, but they are talking about two or three waves of infection over the next year so I'm assuming I may pick it up at some point.

My thinking is the longer I defer infection, the more likely they will have found which drugs that are effective in fighting it. Defer, defer, defer....

[LoveIsLovely]

"They wouldn't leave a woman in labour in that state if she was crying out for help"

Are you serious? There are so many women who post on here who have been given no pain relief during labour despite begging for it.

[LoveIsLovely]

@lexijayde44 I live in a relatively small satellite city of Seoul (so it's on the Seoul metro but not technically Seoul), maybe around 500,000 people here. We've only had 20 odd cases here and most were caught outside our area.

In Seoul and the greater Seoul area in general, it's around 1000 to 1500 cases, but fewer than 20 deaths.

I am hugely grateful to the Korean government right now, they have handled this brilliantly. We never needed to lock down completely, and each potentially outbreak after Daegu has been quickly dealt with.

Nowhere in the world I would rather be right now.

[whatswithtodaytoday]

There will be a vaccination in less than 10 years, yes (assuming one is possible). But we cannot keep the country in lockdown that long - we can't even do it until the end of this year - because the economy will fail and there will be no money. I expect there to be waves of lockdown until things improve, and am resigned to not seeing my parents until this time next year at the earliest.

The antibody tests will be key. Once we know how many people have actually been infected and whether they can contact it again, we can make better decisions about how to manage the spread.

[midgebabe]

If 80% of us have to catch it, assuming a population of 65 million, 15% needing hospital treatment, 2% needing intensive care for an average of 2 weeks ,

and assuming we don't want to crash the NHS

and we assume we have 15,000 ventilator available ( realistically we can't even treat at out current rate using 9000 ventilators long term, because of the need for PPE, the stress on nurses and the need to start normal hospital procedures at some point)

Then it takes over 10 years to get 80% of us infected

I for one am hoping for a vaccine or effective treatment way before that

[Nquartz]

@Lexijayde44 I know you posted a couple of days ago but for your parents it might be worth checking their local Facebook groups/pages. I think groups have been set up with a similar naming convention 'town name helping hands mutual aid' ours is very active delivering food to those who can't get out.

Also local butchers & greengrocers are delivering, local taxi firms are distributing milk & bread to vulnerable/elderly/NHS etc.

[Lexijayde44]

@LoveIsLovely thank you for your reply.

It's definitely a lack of testing her. It has not been handled well at all. I don't think the UK will help you until you can't breathe. Unfortunately many will be at home scared as they won't let them go in.

How many cases/deaths are there recorded near you?

[tenredthings]

Lockdown is in effect a countrywide queue of people waiting their turn to catch it.

[BooseysMom]

@Bool.. degrading to health care workers how? My story isn't a made-up one. DH was left crying out in pain. They wouldn't leave a woman in labour in that state if she was crying out for help

[CocoCorona]

I’ve known since February that we will all get it at some point. 80% of us WILL get this. That’s exactly what herd immunity is. They just don’t want us all to get it at the same time.

I’m being extra cautious but dh isn’t. I have extremely vulnerable family member who I care for. Hoping we get a vaccine before next year.

[LoveIsLovely]

"But we don't know do we? What if there's hardly any mild cases and most of getting severe cases? What if there's only another 80,000 mild cases that we know nothing about. That still leave 64 million+ to get it."

There are definitely lots of mild cases. I'm in Korea and here they test everyone who's been in contact with a confirmed patient. So for example, a woman who worked in a bar tested positive last week and they traced 500 people who had been to that bar over the weekend and tested them. So they catch even very mild or asymptomatic cases.

A LOT of people are saying that they have very mild symptoms or none at all. At this time of year, the air is bad and many people have issues with breathing - it's just part of life here. And many people thought it was just the bad air as usual.

This is one reason the death rate in Korea has been much lower - testing even very mild cases where the person does not need any treatment at all obviously results in very low rates of death.

Plus it's all a matter of having enough resources for people who do get it seriously. In a city of 10 million, Seoul has recorded 2 deaths. 2. And one of those was a guy with stage 4 lung cancer. Seoul is extremely congested and is linked by metro and bus to a whole suburban area with another 10 million people so very easy to spread around.

This is why flattening the curve is so vital. If there are enough facilities, people won't die.

[Lexijayde44]

There are many unobvious people who are not classed as vunerable around the age of 60. They may have smoked. They don't have the best heart and lungs now. They are starting to get high blood pressure. They are retiring. Their bodies and overall health isn't as good now as twenty years ago. My parents, my in laws and my friends parents all fall into this category.

I fear they will be the worst hit when we start mixing again.

My parents are taking lockdown seriously but they didn't twig on as quickly as me.

About 5 weeks ago I suggested to my mum that she joined milk & more. I told her she could get milk, bread, juice and eggs delivered. Even toilet roll. She was very much "I'll be going to Sainsbury's with your dad one day a week" or "someone will help us out" ...... I couldn't convince her! Now she's not able to go in the shop as she walks with sticks and only one adult per household can. My dad goes but his lungs are damaged. I can't drive and can't keep popping out to the shops because I have kids. I have since offered to add more milk onto my order but she won't accept it.

They will just trust they are safe again when lockdown lifts. I'm worried they will just start popping to garden centres etc again and end up with it.

At the same time people will need to start living again.

I am worried about this lockdown lifting. I don't see how it won't be a strain on the NHS when 64 million of us are out again.

As much as I want my five year old back at school being a normal kid again I will be worried. All it takes is an NHS workers child to spread it to other kids in school and it will go spreading around families again. There will be children in every school with NHS/ carer parents.
That's only one example.

I've noticed they are starting to say it does affect kids now but usually mildly. But bojo is going to have a problem on his hands if parents start dropping like flies a month after school reopen.