Is it just a matter of time until infection?

[PurpleThistles84]

My family and I have been observing lockdown since two weeks before it even began. I know it’s daft but it only really hit me yesterday that it’s really a matter of time until we get it, isn’t it? I went into lockdown with the attitude of, we stay in and we won’t get it, but we will really won’t we? Just a case of later rather than sooner. I am posting because I guess I’m hoping someone will tell me I’m wrong?

Just to say, we are not in the vulnerable category, however I have had pneumonia twice and it was horrific so I am quite frightened about catching it.

Except the ones dying at home, or in nursing homes, of course @OhTheRoses

But we don't know do we? What if there's hardly any mild cases and most of getting severe cases? What if there's only another 80,000 mild cases that we know nothing about. That still leave 64 million+ to get it.

the way boris Johnson responded to the virus is a wake up call for everyone. He's familiar and we know who he is. He could have died this week. He was lucky to have a health care team looking after him. I fear many will die due to not being as important as him. We won't have drs checking up on us.

Amen to that. When DH had pleurisy he was left in excruciating pain by both GP surgery and MAU staff. I had to demand they get him help and pain relief..they were more concerned about their documentation. I think they thought, yeah right what do men know about pain?! If any of them working that day had ever had pleurisy they might have moved a bit faster to help.

So yes Bojo would have got around the clock care, of course he would, he's the PM. The rest of us plebs can lie back and expire.

@booseysMom I think that is degrading to our health care workers honestly

@Lexijayde44

Completely agree. But its actually worse as the 10k have died they havent increased the herd immunity.

But if 80k are the severe ones (of 20% hospitalisation rate) then there are 5x the infections i think so 5x80k 400k people actually infected i think.
But because they kept schools open and there were a lot of ski trips it's possible that many of the infections proportionally were kids.
So the gov might be able to assume that x % of kids at a confirmed cases school had it.

If the people being tested are those who are sick enough to go to hospital then surely you see it follows that those who aren't being teted aren't becoming seriously ill.

With some qualifications yes, but still changes the calculation of the infection risk. Qualifications are that many of the 'mild' at home cases do involve pneumonia which sounds pretty scary. Also there are many deaths at home and in care homes as porcupine mentioned.

@Keepdistance

So if 400,000 have it roughly. That's still nowhere near a million. So when restrictions lift (even if a million have had it) we've got 64 million people with no immunity. I am really confused how they think our second peak will be better? Is that because it will die out whilst we hide at home?

They need to be very clear before opening schools etc don't they. I'm worried we are all going to be guinea pigs. I never want to read a healthy child (or unwell) has died from this.

So, if we all stay in lockdown for 6,9,12 months and nobody goes to work, no new car parts, computers pack up, head 8nto a freezing winter with no light or heating because there is no money to pay the bills and the universal credit magic money tree runs out because there is no income generation or tax being paid. Covid spared the little children but starvation and hypothermia won't.

I'll take my chances and hope my 20 something children will too.

I think we will all get it sooner or later, I just hope we will make through it or at least get it lightly.

If this is like many other viruses, it might even lie dormant in us and be triggered again in the future.

We just don't know enough about it yet.

There are many unobvious people who are not classed as vunerable around the age of 60. They may have smoked. They don't have the best heart and lungs now. They are starting to get high blood pressure. They are retiring. Their bodies and overall health isn't as good now as twenty years ago. My parents, my in laws and my friends parents all fall into this category.

I fear they will be the worst hit when we start mixing again.

My parents are taking lockdown seriously but they didn't twig on as quickly as me.

About 5 weeks ago I suggested to my mum that she joined milk & more. I told her she could get milk, bread, juice and eggs delivered. Even toilet roll. She was very much "I'll be going to Sainsbury's with your dad one day a week" or "someone will help us out" ...... I couldn't convince her! Now she's not able to go in the shop as she walks with sticks and only one adult per household can. My dad goes but his lungs are damaged. I can't drive and can't keep popping out to the shops because I have kids. I have since offered to add more milk onto my order but she won't accept it.

They will just trust they are safe again when lockdown lifts. I'm worried they will just start popping to garden centres etc again and end up with it.

At the same time people will need to start living again.

I am worried about this lockdown lifting. I don't see how it won't be a strain on the NHS when 64 million of us are out again.

As much as I want my five year old back at school being a normal kid again I will be worried. All it takes is an NHS workers child to spread it to other kids in school and it will go spreading around families again. There will be children in every school with NHS/ carer parents.
That's only one example.

I've noticed they are starting to say it does affect kids now but usually mildly. But bojo is going to have a problem on his hands if parents start dropping like flies a month after school reopen.

"But we don't know do we? What if there's hardly any mild cases and most of getting severe cases? What if there's only another 80,000 mild cases that we know nothing about. That still leave 64 million+ to get it."

There are definitely lots of mild cases. I'm in Korea and here they test everyone who's been in contact with a confirmed patient. So for example, a woman who worked in a bar tested positive last week and they traced 500 people who had been to that bar over the weekend and tested them. So they catch even very mild or asymptomatic cases.

A LOT of people are saying that they have very mild symptoms or none at all. At this time of year, the air is bad and many people have issues with breathing - it's just part of life here. And many people thought it was just the bad air as usual.

This is one reason the death rate in Korea has been much lower - testing even very mild cases where the person does not need any treatment at all obviously results in very low rates of death.

Plus it's all a matter of having enough resources for people who do get it seriously. In a city of 10 million, Seoul has recorded 2 deaths. 2. And one of those was a guy with stage 4 lung cancer. Seoul is extremely congested and is linked by metro and bus to a whole suburban area with another 10 million people so very easy to spread around.

This is why flattening the curve is so vital. If there are enough facilities, people won't die.

I’ve known since February that we will all get it at some point. 80% of us WILL get this. That’s exactly what herd immunity is. They just don’t want us all to get it at the same time.

I’m being extra cautious but dh isn’t. I have extremely vulnerable family member who I care for. Hoping we get a vaccine before next year.

@Bool.. degrading to health care workers how? My story isn't a made-up one. DH was left crying out in pain. They wouldn't leave a woman in labour in that state if she was crying out for help

Lockdown is in effect a countrywide queue of people waiting their turn to catch it.

@LoveIsLovely thank you for your reply.

It's definitely a lack of testing her. It has not been handled well at all. I don't think the UK will help you until you can't breathe. Unfortunately many will be at home scared as they won't let them go in.

How many cases/deaths are there recorded near you?

@Lexijayde44 I know you posted a couple of days ago but for your parents it might be worth checking their local Facebook groups/pages. I think groups have been set up with a similar naming convention 'town name helping hands mutual aid' ours is very active delivering food to those who can't get out.

Also local butchers & greengrocers are delivering, local taxi firms are distributing milk & bread to vulnerable/elderly/NHS etc.

If 80% of us have to catch it, assuming a population of 65 million, 15% needing hospital treatment, 2% needing intensive care for an average of 2 weeks ,

and assuming we don't want to crash the NHS

and we assume we have 15,000 ventilator available ( realistically we can't even treat at out current rate using 9000 ventilators long term, because of the need for PPE, the stress on nurses and the need to start normal hospital procedures at some point)

Then it takes over 10 years to get 80% of us infected

I for one am hoping for a vaccine or effective treatment way before that

There will be a vaccination in less than 10 years, yes (assuming one is possible). But we cannot keep the country in lockdown that long - we can't even do it until the end of this year - because the economy will fail and there will be no money. I expect there to be waves of lockdown until things improve, and am resigned to not seeing my parents until this time next year at the earliest.

The antibody tests will be key. Once we know how many people have actually been infected and whether they can contact it again, we can make better decisions about how to manage the spread.

@lexijayde44 I live in a relatively small satellite city of Seoul (so it's on the Seoul metro but not technically Seoul), maybe around 500,000 people here. We've only had 20 odd cases here and most were caught outside our area.

In Seoul and the greater Seoul area in general, it's around 1000 to 1500 cases, but fewer than 20 deaths.

I am hugely grateful to the Korean government right now, they have handled this brilliantly. We never needed to lock down completely, and each potentially outbreak after Daegu has been quickly dealt with.

Nowhere in the world I would rather be right now.

"They wouldn't leave a woman in labour in that state if she was crying out for help"

Are you serious? There are so many women who post on here who have been given no pain relief during labour despite begging for it.

I don't think it's an inevitability this time round, particularly if you are observing lockdown, but they are talking about two or three waves of infection over the next year so I'm assuming I may pick it up at some point.

My thinking is the longer I defer infection, the more likely they will have found which drugs that are effective in fighting it. Defer, defer, defer....

Surely it's all about modelling. Fewer people getting it, fewer people to pass it on to, so fewer still get it and pass it on to still fewer people.

The problem will be when people start going to big events again like football matches or concerts.

At the briefings a few weeks ago they said that a rule of thumb is that there are 1000 cases for every death. If that rule of thumb still holds true about ten million people in the UK (approximately 1 in 7) have it or have had it now.

Probably, though there is no definite answer.
The lockdown is to flatten the curve to allow the NHS to cope with the particular symptoms shown in some cases. It would not have been put in place if C19 wasn't understood to be highly transmissible.
If that is correct, very large numbers of us, certainly in conurbations and especially in London, will have had it, with no, or very few, symptoms. If it isn't highly transmissible, there was no point locking down, with all its consequent negative effects, so we have to assume that the transmissibility data is correct.
Remember too that average numbers of deaths per month from all causes is c. 45,000, so around 1700 a day. It's just that we don't have a daily media countdown of those and therefore those deaths are only known to the family and friends of the deceased, not to the rest of the population.

Highly contagious, no treatments, no vaccines, not killed by warm weather....
So yes we will all get it as lockdown has to end very soon.