What do you think the post-virus world will be like?

[BestestBrownies]

I think the divide between rich and poor will widen considerably, and the repercussions will be major civil unrest unless serious measures are taken to mitigate it (universal basic income brought in, minimum wage increased to appropriate living wage, decent social housing for key workers etc).

The inevitable global recession will see a generation of completely disillusioned youth with large university debts and poor employment prospects. Their anger will fuel necessary change.

Mental health care will require major investment to prevent endemic depression and suicide.

This will be an unpopular view, but I also hope multiple airlines go bust and air travel becomes largely unaffordable/unnecessary as people who previously would fly to Europe for the day for meetings hold them online instead. I hope momentum from the Greta Thunberg movement combined with the visible improvements lockdowns have made to the planet puts massive pressure on governments to make real and quantifiable changes to protect and heal the earth from the damage the human race has done.

So here’s a question (I’m not advocating tax dodging), if the recession in Europe and the US is potentially deeper than Asia and therefore likely to result in higher taxes, is it not an opportunity for Asia to attract larger businesses? And in that case is it really possible for governments to implement effective tax measures without losing the companies they need lost for growth?

I think (hope) there will be a greater focus on self reliance and sufficiency, and we may see a return to domestic manufacturing with less reliance on overseas supply chains and providers for essential goods (foods, medicines, healthcare equipment). This could potentially result in more market fragmentation which is no bad thing, but only if those businesses were able to survive in their host economies. In a high tax environment that is very unlikely, hence why I’m not sure that corporation taxes can be dramatically changed (think also of job creation). I think most tax increases will fall on the taxpayer, at all levels.

I agree with a poster on another thread who said the indirect costs of destroying the economy, businesses going under, unemployment, poverty, years of austerity to pay back the debt etc. will have way worse knock on effects on health than a few tens of thousands COVID deaths out of a UK population of 66 million.

I also think many of the people who are currently furloughed will be made redundant as the businesses they work for will not have money to pay them by the time things return to normal.

Inflation will be rampant as businesses try and recoup money from the consumer. This will include travel too..

The government will raise tax and there will be some populist moves to appear more democratic, which in reality will continue to dismantle the middle classes. I don't believe large corporations will be made to pay tax or more tax, the highest price will be paid by the people on PAYE who are in middle management or senior management positions.

This will include NHS staff as they won't be able to make exceptions.

I do believe minum wage will continue to grow, again paid for by the above. The richer will get richer and the middle classes much poorer, which will then in turn mean less travel.

Young people will struggle even more to get on the job ladder as unemployment will be higher.

It's all a bit doom and gloom but we will just have to face it.

As many people here still with jobs are planning what they'll buy, where they'll go when it's 'over' I think we'll return to unthinking consumerism here in the west. We'll see a starker marked divide between the haves and have nots, as goods and services increase in costs.

It depends on your way of thinking. There are those amongst us who do not really think in human terms.

If you look at the messaging from newspapers for years, it breed some less than pleasant views.

The sheer number of deaths of pensioners in care homes will long term, 'help balance the books' and help to 'solve staff shortages in care homes' ... It'll 'free up housing stock' (both private and council) and those younger people desparate for their 'birthright of inheritance for a house' will get it. The elderly in particular (as well as the chronically ill) are regarded by some as a 'drain on society' and 'supporting immigration of unskilled workers'.

I'm sure it will be spun in time as a good event which changed things for the better.

Reality won't matter. Just who votes and those who can afford to complain. Everyone else will be getting by.

Harry and Meghan will disappear into insignificance.

Oh something positive then

@bevelino

You don't rebuild an economy with austerity.

The correct method has been widely known since 1936.

I'm a passionate environmentalist and that part of me is overjoyed that carbon emissions will drop massively, the humanitarian side of me is heartbroken as to what that will do to places heavily reliant on tourism though 😪

Here how we rebuild after CV, 7.5 trillion hidden from the tax man globally. Why do we allow this to continue?

www.businessinsider.com/wealthy-money-offshore-makes-inequality-look-even-worse?r=US&IR=T

Large amounts of housing stock will be freed up, perhaps this will be the thing that deflates the property bubble and allows young people to have affordable places to live?

Interesting article @KenDodd. Shocking but not at all surprising. I think it’s too much to hope that it will be addressed post-CV. Particularly as those in power are some of the worst offenders (or their families and friends are if they maintain a squeaky clean public persona).

Also, we’re hearing very little from Russia. As a large country with a huge percentage of the population in poverty I can’t imagine they are faring too well.

For Putin maintaining his reputation as a strong capable leader is much more important than the well-being of the citizens, we won't be getting accurate figures out of Russia.

The kitchen you now have will probably be the one you die with (if you won it of course). So I'm so wishing I had gone for granite instead of laminate. But hey ho that was the old times. My mint green though should be good for a few more years....

own not won !

Large amounts of housing stock will be freed up
Surely that's assuming that the who die are living alone or that while households are dying?

Pick whichever recession you remember the worst.

Then think worse than that.

Won’t a large amount of housing stock go to children in the wills, if they don’t need it to their dc.

I think there will be lots of changes to 'day to day' things as well as big social economic changes like a global recession, and massive impacts for families like increases in divorces and domestic violence rates, and probably a baby boom on the other side of the coin in 9 months time. Lots of people have mentioned 'big' things on this thread, but some little things that I think will change are:

1. More shops and businesses will want to go cashless, partly for the reduced infection risks, and also because they will have realised other benefits (such as saving them time cashing up tills etc).

2. More people will realise they can work from home, and will want to work from home more often. Subsequently traffic etc will be reduced. Alongside that flexible working will become more common as people move away from working 'standard' hours to fit in with their home lives (e.g, work in the evenings when the kids are in bed).

3. More people will want to become more self-reliant than rely on shops alone for food supplies (apparently there has already been a massive increase in people wanting their own chickens)!

4. Confidence in the travel industry will be knocked for a long time, so lots more people will plan holidays in the UK.

5. Video calls will gradually start to replace traditional phone calls.

6. Sales of books etc will increase as people re-discover reading.

7. Handshakes will become less common as people move towards other non-contact forms of greetings.

Post virus I think the impact will be as follows: Greater poverty, greater unemployment, less self-employed people and more businesses will go bankrupt. People will
only want to be in secure work. More people will demand or work from home. There will be less air travel and more stay vacations. NHS will change massively, Gp surgery’s will do more online consultations and People will be discouraged from going to A&E. More people will shop online. And there will be more online educational learning

@bevelino without lockdown, I'm afraid we weren't talking about a few tens of thousand deaths. You need to add a nought. And the economic impact of so many people being ill at once, of people being afraid to go out because once the nhs saturated the death rate would be much higher would still be huge.

I think things will be different for the medium term, even after lockdown so hopefully things will change.

Tbh if you can work from home then for a lot of folk you have a non-job. The froth on a post-industrial society may get blown away. Capitalism will have to reform or die and don't get me started on automation and global warming. Maybe the sun is setting on human civilsation . We have had a good run.

Tbh if you can work from home then for a lot of folk you have a non-job

A non-job?

I agree with @DBML. Sure some economic repercussions and maybe some people will continue to telecommute, but things will more or less will return to as it was before.

Tbh if you can work from home then for a lot of folk you have a non-job

Are you of the mindset that people who work from home do nothing?

I’m sure people who wfh don’t do nothing, but I do think a fair few have Bullshit Jobs