Why are the numbers still going up in Italy?

[tinkywinkyshandbag]

They've been in lockdown for weeks now, can anybody explain why this is happening? Does it mean we will follow a similar path? If anybody understands the science I'd love a view, thanks.

People still have to go out: key workers, people in hospitals. People catching it at the shops/on walks then passing it on to other family members.

What is going up ?
You can't "un- get" Corona virus or "un-die" from it. The cumulative totals have to increase.

But at a slower rate than previously. In another couple of weeks, the rate of new infections should be low enough they can switch to a containment strategy just around new cases, and release most people from lockdown.

Because the virus isn't done yet, it's still finding new hosts. A lockdown only slows the spread it doesn't stop it.

I had it. Around 20 days later DD, DH and DS got it.
People go shopping. Key workers etc.
It will be worse here as we failed to test and because of stupid herd immunity that Johnson started with. Allowing construction to carry on. not making it clear to employees about protecting staff. Also Lock down less severe here than Italy was at the same period.

tinkywinky - I would have thought that's obvious. They aren’t padlocked inside their houses, and lots of people still have to work in care homes, shops, on farms, making deliveries, in hospitals, in manufacturing, in food production, etc. Besides, numbers can’t go down - once you have covid 19, you have covid 19, and once you’re dead, you’re dead... All you can do is slow everything down to a manageable infection rate, so that you can cope with the number of new cases needing treatment.

It can take 3-4 weeks from in infection to death, plus someone on a ventilator might be kept alive for a while before they try to wean them off the ventilator and they don't respond. The lockdown in Italy wasn't as strict initially, just the north at first which led to people going to second homes/ holiday locations taking the virus with them. There are more intergenerational households too. Teenager goes out mixed with friends early in lockdown, playing at the park. Incubates it for up to 14 days before developing symptoms by which time grandparents/ parents are infected and they take 3-4 weeks before death. Meanwhile all the key workers are also exposed through work, they pass it to their family members. It will be the same here for a while.

You can also lower the rate to a level where you can start testing and tracing properly, which is a more effective way of controlling spread.

So I'm looking at these two graphs which, to me, show a gentle but steady decline in the number of cases. Peaks and troughs as is expected but a downward trend never the less. Which data are you looking at that shows a different pattern op?

It's a curve. It doesn't just drop to zero from 800 deaths a day.

And no lockdown is total- can't be. So, as others have said, people go to supermarkets, keyworkers work etc.

Yesterday's figure also reflected that Wednesday more tests were carried out than ever before on a single day.

Numbers are going up.
Rates are going down.

people are still catching it there because it's very very easily spread, there's lots of asymptomatic carriers, and because people are still mixing to some extent eg work is a reason to leave your house, shopping etc

Yes to a similar path - the reason it won't be stopping here anytime soon either, and because our lockdown is a lot more relaxed than theirs

What has been decreasing though is the rate of spread, the number of other people on average one person infects. Italy have turned a corner on that one but our turn won't be for a while yet, drawn out due to relaxed lockdown and because we were a little behind them anyway

Point of fact though: there are no more intergenerational households in Italy than the UK. (I've said this so many times I might change my name to it ) I looked up the census figures for both countries and taking into account a slight population difference, the percentage is the same.

The lockdown in Lombardia came into force on 8/3 with national lockdown two days later. The relatively few (in comparison) cases in the south have indeed in many instances been connected to a family member leaving Milan etc on the night of the 7th.

The lockdown was very strict though from the go get. Teenagers were definitely not going out with their friends to parks. Obviously you get the odd rule breaker but it wasn't allowed.

The rates are going down, but there is a big time lag between infection and death/recovery. They are identifying more cases as testing has increased, but the numbers being admitted to hospital and to ICU have been declining over the past few days.

Morning Lee. Hope you're well!

Attaching a graph to show the actual trend in Italy. This shows tests carried out (grey) positive results (red) % of tests carried out being positive.

Thank you, yes I meant rates of infection going up not total but these explanations are somewhat reassuring. I think the economic impact of this is so massive I needed reassurance that lockdown in in fact the right course of action. Seems very different in Sweden? I'm no statistician so just trying to understand the data.