How come Cornwall's doing so 'well'?

[Pickles89]

I don't want to jinx it, and believe me I'm not complaining, but how is it that (so far!) Cornwall's escaped so lightly? I think there've been a total of 19 Covid19 deaths in the county? I know we're very rural here but it's an aging population, lots of interaction with extended families (grandparents caring for their grandchildren etc) and generally people are very sociable within their small communities. Besides what about all those second homers who are supposed to have swarmed down here from London? How come they didn't all bring it with them? I also know many local families where one parent travels 'upcountry', if not abroad, on a regular basis for work. How come they didn't bring it back with them before the lockdown, pass it to their children, their children spread it round school and the whole thing exploded locally? It's not like we're renownd for our exceptional healthcare provision.

As others have pointed out, I imagine there’s a lot in care homes which haven’t been included.
But besides that, generally I think people are taking social distancing seriously, and also a huge percentage of jobs here are in agriculture and tourism, both of which are not being affected by Covid19 in the same way as other industries, in that farmers etc can carry on mostly as normal and tourism of course has ground to a halt meaning people aren’t going into work and cling into contact with people. Plus generally it’s less common to commute in or out 🤷🏼‍♀️

'The South-West in general is doing well. Whooopeee From Dorset!!!'

Whooopeee?

As others have said it'll be because of the density of the population, if you are unlucky to have any 'superspreaders' and the timing of the lockdown.

Another perspective - testing has not been as widespread here. Heard today that the spike in Cornwall is anticipated for mid-May. So this is not a time to be complacent.

Tourists, travellers, second homers, sorry, but please stay away for now.

I still don't understand why the south west would have a later peak to other areas of the measure were implemented at the same time and remain for the same time? Surely the south west had less people infected before the lockdown and therefore will be easier to get on top of the numbers rather than worse? Bit like some of the other European countries where they had smaller numbers and lockdown was on place sooner. The measures are applied everywhere not regionally?

I work in a hospital in the south west and hospital numbers have been low throughout the region and are falling in our hospital. Care homes is a different kettle of fish but again, no different to problems faced in other regions.

I should imagine when this is all analysed, it will be the areas with the fewest skiing trips to Northern Italy that will fare best

That is a very interesting point. European ski season may well be a factor in the progress of this virus from Wuhan to the rest of the world.

Same headispounding I can't understand the rationale that we will have a much later peak, if everyone has restricted movement and the SW had low numbers at the time of implentation, why would a surge happen?

Clearly, if variables change and restrictions are relaxed and we end up with more movement into the region that the risk is high, but if the status quo is maintained, why would there be higher rates?

Surely the south west had less people infected before the lockdown and therefore will be easier to get on top of the numbers rather than worse?

I think the point is the lockdown won't prevent spread - just slow it. There's still lots of people out and about - health workers, carers, food retailers, etc. etc. And herd immunity is not being built up amongst those who are isolating.

I live in Falmouth, and the streets in town have been pretty deserted apart from queues outside of the few places that are open. The main road by the beaches has been pretty busy though. I went for a run on Sunday afternoon, and avoided the coastpath as I knew social distancing would be tricky as it's so narrow. Ran up the main road by the beaches, and was shocked by the amount of people walking 3/4/5 abreast on the pavements, lots of cars, cyclists and runners. I can't talk because I was out too, but was just a bit of a surprise. Spent most of my time in the road dodging cars and cyclists because the pavements were so busy. Need to find new routes, and go earlier or later.

Feel very thankful to be living down here and not in some big city. Thank fuck for the countryside and the sea.

Ridiculousradish it's perfectly lovely in London at the moment too.

Lack of public transport.
I think the areas who fare worst will have the highest public transport use :(
I live in a very “walkable” city so while car use is low, many many people can walk to/from work and were in that week before shutdown.

was shocked by the amount of people walking 3/4/5 abreast on the pavements

But were they households? I've seen (from afar!) friends out walking with their kids (sometimes their adult kids who are home from university) who might look like they're not complying with the rules.

Thank fuck for the countryside and the sea

That we are not allowed to visit.

I'm a 10 minute drive to the beach, but wont see it for weeks or months.

Cheddar I expect they probably were households, it was more the fact that they were walking side by side so that no one could walk past.

2020 that's shit, I'm sorry. Do you have nice countryside nearby that you can walk in?

2020changedtheworld I think that a short drive to the beach is permissible.

The reason that the South West has low rates is simply because the virus arrived in UK in the South East. London is about 2 weeks ahead of the rest of the country.

The virus will eventually spread to eveyrwhere the point of the lockdown is to slow the spread so that it reaches places slowly enough for the NHS to cope.

Just heard on the radio that the M5 has 2 lanes closed near Tiverton as a caravan (that was in a convoy) has over turned....Hope they get fined and sent home.