How come Cornwall's doing so 'well'?

[Pickles89]

I don't want to jinx it, and believe me I'm not complaining, but how is it that (so far!) Cornwall's escaped so lightly? I think there've been a total of 19 Covid19 deaths in the county? I know we're very rural here but it's an aging population, lots of interaction with extended families (grandparents caring for their grandchildren etc) and generally people are very sociable within their small communities. Besides what about all those second homers who are supposed to have swarmed down here from London? How come they didn't all bring it with them? I also know many local families where one parent travels 'upcountry', if not abroad, on a regular basis for work. How come they didn't bring it back with them before the lockdown, pass it to their children, their children spread it round school and the whole thing exploded locally? It's not like we're renownd for our exceptional healthcare provision.

But if we're expecting it to get worse in a couple of weeks ginwithasplash then that would mean social distancing hasn't worked wouldn't it? We're into the 3rd week of lockdown so the new hospitalisations would have to come from people infected after significant restrictions were out in place, which just seems unlikely?

The NHS is creating loads of extra capacity because they need to have provisions of required, but there's no guarantee it will be required I guess?

I've always thought that London is a few weeks behind London and Cornwall is a week or so behind London

Only 18 deaths in my area and it's certainly not one of the 'healthier' cities - we have high rates of all the relevant conditions. It's also a bit of a shithole. I can only presume it's the location, right at the end of the M62, meaning we don't get people passing through.

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I would think that that would be based on enough people travelling, mixing and carrying on as normal, and because we've all been restricted for 3ish weeks now the rate of new infections in unaffected populations should be reduced? Maybe? Hopefully?

It's terrifying to think what the worst could be :(

London a couple of weeks behind Italy. SW couple weeks behind that. Hopefully all slowed down by social distancing. It's coming, hopefully at a manageable rate.

Everyone I know is really sticking to it. It's easy to distance in the Cornish lanes too - ran 5k this evening and passed 2 people.

Plus most houses here have outside space or are close to some.

That all said, my contacts in the know think we're going to be harder hit in the coming weeks

I agree with the pp that the area is predominantly white.

I'm in the West Midlands and my town (population 280,000) has 350 cases and 40 deaths.

The local hospital is, unfortunately, seeing more cases of patients from ethnically diverse backgrounds/intergenerational living.

For those who think viruses are transmitted on particular frequencies - The Scillies were a test area for 5G. Have they had any cases?

fewer people getting to hospital so deaths not classified as covid?

ONS statistics include every community death linked to COVID-19, even if they were not tested for it

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-521038088*

Why would the south west be a few weeks behind London? The lockdown and all the advice happened at the same time for everyone??

My thought was that you probably have a lower proportion of the workforce using public transport to get to work compared with many areas. That will almost certainly have helped.

I have a horrible feeling that were it ever provable an incredibly high number of London deaths will be linked to the transport system.

^ This in spades I expect. You can't mix and move a shifting population of millions of densely packed people - including many transient visitors from all over the world- into the same confined airspace every day and not expect a very contagious respiratory virus to rip through them like the Great Fire of London.

@headispounding there were already more cases in london before lockdown.

Aren't Cumbria's disproportionate figures down to the influx of half-term holiday makers - plus an elderly population?

I think Cornwall has sadly risen to 28 deaths now, according to CornwallLive.

Where I live, small village outside Truro, everyone has stuck to social distancing that I’ve seen & the sense of spirit in the community is very much we’re all in this together but we’ll damn well do our best to keep smiling and carrying on.

Not only is public transport almost non-existent but schools tend to be smaller than in London and other big cities so, if a child had it, they would have only been able to spread it to a smaller number of other children and staff.

I think the issue of second homes/tourist travel was a bit exaggerated. I'm on a FB feed for a Cornwall town where the locals been moaning like hell and threatening all sorts of retribution on dreadful tourists - but it's a town with a lot of webcams, and we can all see for ourselves that it's deserted.

I live here & remember reading this and thinking I hope everyone stays well.

www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/cornwall-school-stupid-not-quarantine-3830837

@BrandyandBabyCham

Incubation 1-14 days average 5.
Onset of symptoms to death average 18 days range approx 14-48.

So assuming averages - 23 days from catching it, then incubating it, then having it, to dying 3-4 weeks.

We are just over 2w lockdown so surge will be in approx 10 days.

Additionally, Cornwall has an older population and so far of the deaths in UK, 50% are in those 80 yrs plus.
So in next 2 weeks there will be a big surge in cases and the ITUs will be full.

I don't know how many extra ITU beds have been created in Cornwall but expect there will be far less than will be needed and transporting people to the new Nightingale hospital from Cornwall will be logistically v difficult.

But for there to be a big surge in deaths in the next few days, we'd surely expect to already see a rise in hospital admissions prior? And I don't think we are, are we?

Is it going to be that sort of 'falling off a cliff' dramatic? Wouldn't that kind of model be based on everyone getting it at exactly the same time? Why would that be?

The SW absolutely doesn't have the infrastructure to cope with massive demand, though much capacity has been created. Logistics such as transport and roads just isn't there.

I'm in Truro and it's very eerie I live just of the main road into the town and there is hardly any traffic noise I'm going to tesco once a week and have found its the older people that aren't bothered about the social distancing

Small rural village here as well, everyone keeps their distance when dog walking, running or just walking. A couple of days ago I had a long distance chat with a dog walker then walked on footpaths for an hour and saw no one.

Pubs are doing takeaways, which is popular and our local shop is well stocked with veg etc so we have not travelled outside the area. Only 2 cases here so far and vulnerable people self isolating with volunteers delivering food.

There are lots of terraced houses in our town and I have seen 'visitors' popping in & out.

Some not as discreet as others, my neighbours small grandchildren were shouting "bye nan" as they were getting in the car a few days ago,

The postwoman was opening all of the gates (as she has to), so I can see how it can go from gate to grandchild to nan

Have you seen the research paper linking Covid mortality to vitamin D deficiency? That could explain why southern England is less at risk.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561958

I live in a small village in Cornwall. Just outside of st. Austell. People here are adhering to the lockdown, traffic is very quiet and the shops are quiet. I also have heard that duchy and treliske have joined in case of a sudden influx of cases.
I do fear we will have a lot more cases in the weeks to come