Lockdown will end sooner than later

[Mumlove5]

Let’s hope the government will listen to the economists. A balance needs to be created.

I honestly do not think Boris will stand for a longterm lockdown. He wants to get back to normality ASAP.

Plus, infection rates are slowing in Europe🙏🏻

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/05/behind-scenes-boris-johnsons-gang-becoming-riven-infighting/

“It’s a false argument that we are either going to save lives or save the economy,” said Sir Iain, a former Work and Pensions Secretary. “We are talking about saving lives right now versus saving lives in the future because people have got jobs to go back to, and a strong economy that can raise enough taxes to pay for the NHS.”

Yet when does the crossover point come when the Government has to start prioritising the economy above all else? “I’d say we have until the end of this month,” added Mr Duncan Smith. “We have a chance of saving the economy if we are out of this in three weeks but much longer and businesses won’t be able to be resurrected and charities will go under. And then we will see real suffering. We get this done, we flatten the curve and we get back to normal.”

I suspect we will need a further three weeks before starting to lift restrictions in order to protect the NHS.

I think I am a realist, not overly pessimistic or optimistic.

If the restrictions are lifted at Easter it will be too soon and we won't have the beds (or the morgue spaces) to deal with the results.

@neveradullmoment99

No need for name calling. The virus is NOT going away. This lockdown is not to eradicate the virus. It’s to slow the spread so the NHS can get up to speed. They now have thousands of extra ICU beds and the Nightingale hospital.

This lockdown is short-term. If not, the cure will be a lot worse than the disease itself.

Hundreds of people are dying from this illness every day

Hundreds of people are dying with the disease, most of whom would have died anyway.

Such irresponsible scaremongering - have a word with yourself!

I am preparing myself for going back to office in early July and I thought it’s early.

If we come out before the peak then the NHS can’t cope, I can’t see us coming out before June surely? Great that other countries are coming out but they locked down before us.

I am an optimist I would say. I’m hoping for deaths to come down in the next few weeks. That social distancing continues for a month or so following that. Schools to go back after May half term and all in time for my summer holiday to the Florida Keys come the end of July. 🤞

My mate's 46-year-old son just died from it this morning, no underlying health conditions

So sorry to read this.

This is why people don't want to come out of lock down, not because they are loving it

I am losing track of the days. Are we at the 21 day point this week? Which day? I presume someone will tell us something at 5pm?

I'm praying that the Oxford modelling is right and there's a huge pool of totally asymptomatic infected people that means we really are at the peak of the primary curve.

I agree, some people will be angry that we aren't having our front doors welded shut until September, army patrolliing every street corner and only allowed out to buy porridge oats once per month.

I miss the pub and family dinners and I’m not ashamed to say it!

Totally agree @inlawsimnotsure. The effect on mental health, the economy, people with other health issues that aren't covid 19, domestic violence, children, businesses, jobs, suicides is going to be massive and we need to be looking at the higher picture.

I'm also not being heartless and thinking it won't be me or my family (I have asthma for one, nurses in the family etc), but the lockdown will need to end sooner rather than later, or the consequences to all other aspects of life are far to huge and outweigh any benefit.

What's this bigger picture then, other than, 'My mental health is poor and I had to wait therefore people should risk their lives and the NHS risk collapse trying to treat a virus, which doesn't discriminate, because this is hard on meeeeee. It's all about meeeeee, but I'll couch it in general terms so no one determines my pretext.'

Christ on a bike! How many are willing to sacrifice themselves, or their kids, for this greater good, balance, because that's optimistic. Yeah, viruses really give a shit about that.

Any thoughts on the schools? Going back I mean. I assumed after the summer

Rates are slowing in Europe but not yet in the UK because we are are few weeks behind them. Lockdown won't end until it is clear the rate is slowing and we are over the hump. Even then it will be gradual. I think it will be end of May at the earliest. Later if cases continue to rise

Lockdown will need to be eased soon enough so that the second wave of people catch it. What the government need to time carefully is when to start the second lockdown so that the NHS is not overwhelmed by the second wave. Then there will be an easing again so that the third wave catch it.

This will carry on until there are sufficient in the population who have had Covid19, or until there is a vaccine.

I agree with you OP. Time to ease the restrictions before the economic impact is even more severe.

Mumlove5 - the only reason the NHS is not already overwhelmed is that they have stopped screening programmes, cancelled treatments (even some cancer treatments), taken thousands of peopke outmof retirement etc. Whatever happens, we cannot allow numbers of covid-19 cases to get anywhere near the levels we are currently getting coming into our hospitals again. How do you propose we stop this happening? Are you confident the Government will test, track and trace more effectively in future (sufficient to prevent further lockdowns), or are you suggesting that the NHS start refusing to treat anyone who tests positive for covid 19, and tells them that, if they cannot get over the illness on their own, they will just have to die at home, cared for by relatives with no protective equipment, specialist resources or expertise?

@AutumnLeavesSeptember

Yes, I hope ALL models are looked at. Not just Imperial College’s which has not been peer reviewed. There are epidemiologists that do not agree with this model. They believe that the deaths are grossly overestimated. The imperial college’s models have been flawed in the past and shockingly they’re the most followed.

1500 - 1700 people die daily in the UK. We’ve never watched and waited for deaths to this extent ever in history.

I agree we need to strike a balance, but it’s a hard one. I’ve a feeling things will start to get quite a lot better in terms of infections by the end of April, and that restrictions will start to be lifted by mid-May.

As for your figures, it’s “only 500-700” per day bow because we are taking these measures. If we’d carried on regardless it we’d be well into the thousands, with most daily deaths occurring from it.

Are you willing to die for the good of the country then OP? Personally I'd rather not.

An est 160,000 people died in the EU as a result of the 2008 recession. It's not a case of lives or economy

No idea where she got it from/how accurate it is but my friend is head of a private school has told me that they expect to reopen at the beginning of May. Schools and shops are likely to be reopened ahead of pubs and restaurants with the vulnerable (over 70's etc) encouraged to remain at home longer than the rest of us

@TheArchSorcererofContwaraburg

I've had the help I needed - I was thinking of others. If you can describe mental health needs as being 'all about meeeee' then you've clearly never suffered from bad mental health or suicidal thoughts.

As @BatmanBaby said - there's domestic violence victims, physical health issues that can't be addressed and the physical effect of poverty that a large recession would bring. That's the bigger picture.

I agree with you OP. Time to ease the restrictions before the economic impact is even more severe.

If we ease them right now we might as well not have bothered