What is the true story?

[Namechangervaver]

Hancock has said he has lost two people close to him.

Somebody I know has died.

Boris has been hospitalised.

The country has been shut down despite us knowing that to do this will cripple us for years to come, so it's a very serious situation.

A small fraction of our population is supposedly affected but I'm guessing we all know people hospitalised or dead.

This is obviously so much worse than we have been told

I think it is bad, but if you read the information out there it's clear WHY it is bad:

• new virus/ no current immunity or vaccine
• many cases asymptomatic
• highly contagious, even the asymptomatic ones

It's bad because of the potential rapid 'peak' of infections (and deaths) swamping the country and NHS in a short space of time.

Personally, I think there's an interesting 'herd immunity by stealth' strategy going on whereby the government imposes a 'soft lockdown' knowing fully that some people will flaunt it - these are the people (the youngest, fittest, least at risk?) who will keep the virus going around (albeit more slowly) and begin to build up immunity to prevent a resurgence as soon as we come out of lockdown. Unfortunately key workers also get caught up in the on-going spread.

I think we're being protected in a way from too much negativity. However, my mum's cousin lives in New York, 4 blocks away from the nearest hospital. She said all they hear day and night are sirens going off with ambulances. Outside the hospital are lots of refrigerated trucks for all of the bodies. This is the reality. She's equally angry that they're not being told the truth.

@Sunshineeeee

Covid-19 is a notifiable disease. Testing post-mortem for it involves swabbing the nose and throat- not a full post-mortem. Dr's can not simply record a cause of death as Covid-19 if they do not know. Family members do not 'signed it as' causes of death- the expression makes no sense.

However, perhaps the rules covering notifiable diseases, post-mortem diagnoses and completion of death certificates are different where you live.

The world have literally stopped going on as we know it, schools are shut, we are allowed out once a day for exercise

The cases tested are those in hospital so realistically a small number - they reckon at least 1 in 15 Londoners could have had it (if not more). The fact is they just dont know how many people have had it.

I am just not sure what you think could be worse than what we actually know?

deydodo are you Mocha in disguise or a colleague of theirs? 😏

@Lolaesque - Outside the hospital are lots of refrigerated trucks for all of the bodies. This is the reality. She's equally angry that they're not being told the truth.

but New York has had 4,159 deaths from coronavirus so presumably that accounts for the extra activity? The current situation is bad enough; I really don't think we need conspiracy theories and more fear-mongering.

my SiL told me they don't do postmortem's for Covid for people who died outside of hospitals

Lolaesque- All I have heard this morning is the constant wail of ambulance sirens - way more than normal. It's worrying.

I don't know anyone who has has it, let alone been hospitalised.

A couple of friends may have had it. Or it might have been a cold with a cough.

France added about 1300 care home deaths into their figures recently. I expect we'll be doing similar soon. Also once testing begins in earnest I reckon we'll be looking at hundreds of thousands of cases. If testing only hospitalised = 50 000 by the end of today. 1 in 5 need hospitalised means 250,000 surely. Although the bar for hospital treatment has been set really high (too high?) so probably skewed the ratio so maybe up to 500,000 cases? Terrifying numbers.

Amazing how many people were prescient about this. And, of course, they sold all their investments and bought holiday insurance, so are not out of pocket at all. In fact they must be rubbing their hands with glee that they can now buy investments (and soon, property, really cheaply).

This is a really annoying, anecdote based thread, which will scare anyone who reads it. The reality is exactly what we have been told. For 40 out of 50 people, the infection will be mild, for another 5 or so, it will need a few days on hospital on enhanced oxygen, and for maybe one out of the 50, it will prove fatal (well more like 0.5 out of 50).

Luckily, Corona has not mutated that much and, as far as I know, there are not really several strains with varying morbidity (another silly internet rumour). The differences in fatality rates for different epidemics seem to be caused by two factors: the age of the population getting infected and how many tests are being done.

There was a massive disconnect early on between what we were officially told and what we could see happening in China.

Then there was the herd immunity debacle.

Now we learn that there is widespread fudging of numbers in many countries, lowering numbers, not testing enough.

It’s understandable that people have lost confidence in what we’re being told.
The government haven’t set themselves up to be a trusted source of information.
Even the lockdown rules are ambiguous and can be interpreted in different ways.

No bloody wonder we’re confused.

@Wehttam, I've literally no idea what you're on about.

larry I think it has mutated into several strains, I’m sure the Italian strain is different to the original one, and there are plenty of articles in various outlets about mutations with different degrees of severity.

@larrygrylls The virus has mutated twice that we know of. No one knows if either version is more dangerous. There has not been enough research. There is still a lot unknown about this virus.

Personally, I think there's an interesting 'herd immunity by stealth' strategy going on whereby the government imposes a 'soft lockdown' knowing fully that some people will flaunt it

This is EXACTLY what I think they're going for. Realistically, they can't keep solid lockdown for 2 years because it's costing like 2.4 billion a day - and a vaccine will be ages away, it will take 18 months to get approved then more months to actually get it manufactured for the entire planet. Herd immunity is the only way out, it just needs to be at a trickle level so the NHS can cope.

"Is SARS-CoV-2 mutating? Yes. Is it going to be a problem?? No."
mobile.twitter.com/richdavisphd/status/1245767512995663872

I’m in London and know about 10 people who have it, including one with multiple serious underlying conditions (chest problems, very high blood pressure) who was very ill at home but is now recovering. Most others have been mild - bad cold style. Not heard of any deaths/hospitalisations yet.

Even the lockdown rules are ambiguous and can be interpreted in different ways.

No, they really not. If you take the spirit of the rules, rather than the exact words, it's pretty clear. STAY AT HOME unless ESSENTIAL. How much clearer do you need?

A man in his 80’s who lives in my road sadly died from it 2 weeks ago, was unwell with a ‘cold’ for 2 weeks then collapsed and died.
I’m just so very sad (and extremely angry) that our government had played this down for weeks, months even, when many of us lay people had been watching this unfold for months and could see and fear the outcome. They could have done so much more to protect us and to have prevented some of the deaths which have happened and will continue to happen.
I can not see now how they will control this until a vaccine comes along which of course will be ages away.
But so many people are still so in denial that this is a huge, serious issue which will not go away anytime soon. I was talking to my friend yesterday and she and her dh are convinced it will be all over once it’s peaked!!

It has to be herd immunity and, yes, that will ultimately be the background thinking, if not the actual battle plan. We need to slow the virus, not as much for the NHS but so that e.g. gas, electric and food workers aren't all sick at once. To literally keep the lights on and food in our stomachs ... in the short term.

In the medium to long term, think in medieval terms: 18 months to 2 years for a vaccine is 2 to 3 harvest years, maybe 4 to 6 with (albeit limited) greenhousing. Large swaths of the world will literally starve to death if we don't get the economy going again.

Economy = food, potable water and heating.

Simple as that.

Kazzy, I know that, but there have been issues with a police force interpreting the rules differently and having to be corrected.

There has been ambiguity in asking people not to drive to get exercise, with every man and his dog having a reason why they have to drive out to exercise.

A local company has recently opened a facility to allow dogs to exercise off lead on several acres, on the face of it they are not allowed to be open, as all potential customers need to drive there. A solicitor client managed to find loopholes in the rules that allow them to stay open.

Obviously this is a dreadful time for businesses, but the wording of the guidelines are open to interpretation if individuals want.

They are clear to me, and probably most of the population, but they are not clear to some.

I’m happy to take the spirit of the guidelines, but honestly if they’re having to rely on people getting into the lockdown spirit, they’re not clear enough.

And it's quite obvious that wartime censorship is in place, to prevent panic and disorder...leading to exacerbated food shortages and essential workers (gas, water, IT, bank etc) leaving their posts.

That's why we're not being told the truth.

Is it obvious?