Once we all get released, the curve will go up again - so what am I missing?

[AlmostThereKeepMoving]

As soon as shops, restaurants, schools open up again, then give it a couple of weeks and the rates of infection and then deaths will go up again.

So what am I missing? Why don't they leave us in lockdown until a vaccine is made?

.. because with each wave, more people will be immune to it as they've already had it - either knowingly or unknowingly, therefore the birus gets weaker, less people to overwhelm the NHS. A study in China found that almost half of the people who tested positive had no symptoms.

They will need to have a second wave probably around August/September time so that the load on the NHS is over and done with by the time winter pressures sets in (the seasonal flu, standard pneumonia's etc.)

Our schools are shut until after summer holidays, I don’t get anyone who thinks this is over in a few weeks

Most viruses for back in warm summer months for various reasons, but partly because of the effect of sunlight and being outdoors instead of breathing air that 29 other people have already had in their lungs in a sealed classroom or office or restaurant. Then they pick up again for second wave in September.

Letting people out in July and August would be relatively ok, but when the schools go back and people breathe each others air in offices with closed windows and sit inside bars and restaurants breathing each others exhaled breath in September there will be a second wave.

That should be most viruses fall back in warm summer months

If say 10,000 people die in this wave, and that's 1% then only one million people will have been infected. Allowing a second wave in August would not then mean that most people would have had it before winter.

What China has done is to do aggressive monitoring ,testing, border control , quarantine and local lockdowns to prevent any more peaks. Probably far less damaging to the economy but trading some out our freedoms as it requires personal movement trackin

It's simple, after someone is infected they can pass the virus on until their immune system overcomes it. Usually about 14 days. Hence isolation times.

Once we have stayed home for an extended period it is hoped that infected people will no longer she'd the virus. Therefore the virus will die out.

In theory if ecveryone didn't go anywhere for two weeks then the virus would go. However that isn't possible and if the virus mutates (it will) there could be a second peak, in fact this has been observed in previous pandemics.

Lockdown for a year will cripple the economy for generations

Kazzy that is terrible, I am so sorry to hear that.

If we have been on lockdown for 10 days and only 9 people have been murdered, then we are seeing a decline in murder rate. It's about 2 murders and day in the uk.

I think it's obvious that the virus doesn't just die out. China opened up some of their cafes and transport systems and people who came out of isolation still got infected, albeit not at a high rate but they were still getting infected.

The whole point is to stop hospitals being overwhelmed all at once. There will still be a second wave of infections when this isolation thing is lifted, the hospitals should just be able to cope better with it.

Our schools are shut until after summer holidays, I don’t get anyone who thinks this is over in a few weeks

Where does it officially say schools are closed until September? Can you share a link pls

The only way hospitals can stay under capacity is by cancelling everything non covid plus lockdown effects. Those things won't start up again once the lockdown starts being lifted.

We've been told to expect redeployment for 6 months at least before we can resume some sort of normal NHS business if it's even possible then. Hospitals need to be largely clear of covid before general public can start coming back into it.

I think the NHS will be the last to return to normal.

The whole exercise is about flattening the curve NOT making sure fewer people get it overall. Its about making the numbers with it at anyone tile more manageable to so that potentially there is a bettr clinical outcome

I think it’ll be relaxed in degrees so relaxing working from home but restricting numbers in shops and gatherings of a certain size. I agree schools won’t be back till September which has the natural consequence of restricting adults movements but they’ll have to implement some childcare measures. Smaller holiday-care type places maybe. Ideally I’d like to see face masks added to preventative measures.

I also think the 14 day isolation period will be continued for symptoms and become statutory. If the testing capabilities improve you might need to be tested before your workplace will let you back to work.

That might be able to keep infections to a manageable number.

Keeping the first wave low means they can set up the huge temp Nightingale Hospitals which will take over the care of Covid-19 cases. Then they will be able to deep clean the hospitals so they can revert to non Covid patients. They are using old fashioned but effective idea of isolation hospitals.
The UK have had a little more time to prepare for the peaks and hopefully over the summer months theses isolation hospitals will allow routine urgent health care to restart.
Increasing testing while patients still have early symptoms will allow them to be directed to the isolation hospitals rather than clean hospitals.
We are already seeing this in primary care with hot GP surgeries and non Covid surgeries at different sites. The two surgeries in our town have been designated this way and will probably go online with this when testing is increased. Urgent dental clinics will be opening soon again hot surgeries for treating patients with active Covid whether they are showing symptoms or not.
This what all the historic planning has been for and although it has taken everyone by surprise it is all going on behind the scenes.
The big problem is the disease itself it is far more infectious than probably anticipated and has caught the whole world on the hop.
The biggest problem we face is convincing the general public to stop touching each other either directly or indirectly.
Despite living conditions being far more crowded 70 years ago the fear of diseases such as measles or polio was much higher. Everyone knew someone who had lost someone to a childhood illness. TB was still rife. So when quarantines were enforced no one argued.
Perhaps as more people lose loved ones or know people who die very quickly during the pandemic the greater their compliance will be.

Why don't they leave us in lockdown until a vaccine is made?

Because no one will have jobs to go back to
Because there will be a huge increase in suicides and severe mental health issues
Because there will be a huge increase in domestic violence and murders
Because there will be civil unrest

Who do you think will pay for everyone to eat/live in the 18 months until a vaccine is available?

@willdoitinaminute what will they do in areas where there are no nightingale hospitals? I'm in the south west and I think our nearest will be Bristol or Cardiff - 3-4 hours away. We don't have the infrastructure here to have designated isolation hospitals really.

In addition to what everyone else had already said, I think it’s wise to bear in mind that there’s absolutely no guarantee that there will be a vaccine.

I believe they'll bring us out of lockdown, but still have social distancing.

"more people are going to die of other things than would have died due to Covid-19 if they don't get the hospitals open again."

No
Just the opposite

More people will die of other things if COVID cases completely swamp the NHS
AND

if treatment that reduces immune functioning is too dangerous now,
because of the risk of COVID,

then that risk would be even higher if COVID cases rise

Clearly the economy must be restarted a long time before the vaccine comes,

but that can only be once the cases have been brought under control

The government are trying to avoid the Imperial college scenarios of ¼ or ½ million deaths occuring within a few months,

not just to save lives, but

because that in itself would wreck the economy, with millions having symptoms and others refusing to go into work

Keep an eye on Belgium, who are discussing lifting lockdown on about April 19th, and on Singapore, where they are getting a second wave of the virus after lifting restrictions.

Getting a second wave is inevitable. The hope is that the NHS will have some time to prepare themselves before it happens.

Just reading through the replies...

@BlackandWhiteCat0 Our schools are shut until after summer holidays

Do you have a link for this? Nowhere has anyone confirmed it will be after summer before the kids go back.

I just don't see any easy pathways ahead.

AlmostThereKeepMoving BlackandWhiteCat is probably outside the UK.

Loads of countries have closed schools until September.