Once we all get released, the curve will go up again - so what am I missing?

[AlmostThereKeepMoving]

As soon as shops, restaurants, schools open up again, then give it a couple of weeks and the rates of infection and then deaths will go up again.

So what am I missing? Why don't they leave us in lockdown until a vaccine is made?

Things will be bad enough for the economy, we can't live over a year until the Vaccine is out.

I think they'll do it like a drip. Firstly certain things will be permitted. Then when that curve 'flattens' more things. They'll pull some things back as the infection number rises again.

Because it would ruin the economy I expect. Also I don't think they are trying to stop it completely, just slow it down so the hospitals can cope.

I wonder who will actually get the vaccine when it's out.

Also, what about the furloughing? Someone goes on furlough for six weeks, then back to work and is paid for four weeks, then on furlough for six weeks? It's going to be a nightmare to administer?

I think in a couple of months when the restrictions are eased enough people will have caught it and be immune that the cases won't sore like they did at the beginning, meaning the NHS can cope through the whole crisis

Well firstly you can only keep people on lockdown for so long before they won’t conform any more

They will have to open up businesses etc within a few months or the economy will be even more fucked

They will just have to let us out, lock us down and repeat as that way we won’t all get it at once and all need the nhs at the same time.

so let all the vulnerable have it and die......but the rest of the uk will be immune so its ok then to carry on?

You can’t leave a country in lock down for a year (or more) until a vaccine is ready.

All they are trying to do is regulate the amount of people passing through the NHS at one time. Once there is more capacity the rules will relax. When they are near breaking point again, there will be another lockdown. And so on until it’s no longer necessary, either because there is a vaccine or most people will have had it.

lavender, yes Pretty much until a vaccine is found. But remember they are trialling different forms of treatment too. The vulnerable and ill are very high risk of death which is why they’re supposed to be shielded for 12 weeks.

The testing will tell us more though. More people will be immune than we know of currently so fewer opportunities to pass it on.

There could be a middle ground where if you have a immune reaction test which shows you have had it you would be able to return to work. The. The vulnerable who have not had it could still self isolate.

so let all the vulnerable have it and die......but the rest of the uk will be immune so its ok then to carry on?

There's no "one size fits all" solution to this crisis and you know that, the vulnerable will have to carry on self isolating as long as they need to

On the cruise ship, half of all people testing positive had no symptoms at the time of testing.

My understanding of the current measures is it reduces the numbers in hospitals by lengthening the epidemic. It is not to stop people getting it just to spread the out so more people can be effectively treated.

Hopefully they will ease everything back in really gently. So it won’t be everything suddenly opening at once. Don’t know what order they’d do things in though. Schools first presumably but then they’d need to think about non essential shops, leisure centres, restaurants etc.

It'll be a very slow process - I imagine they'll relax shops first and extend the types of shops and similar premises allowed to re open, maybe such as DIY and clothing stores, but the 2 metre rule and queues outside to limit numbers inside will remain.

We're not going to see pubs, cafes and restaurants open any time soon, nor football matches and concerts etc - they're going to be much further away.

As for holidays, hotels, etc., I think we can safely forget it for this Summer.

Social distancing is going to be with us for many months.

Schools first presumably

Can't see it at all - September at the earliest. Pointless re opening in, say, June, only for them to close for the usual July shutdown.

It will get less as more people will have immunity, the virus gets weaker too I hope.

In the summer people will have stronger immune systems, and be outside more.

True! I have been preparing DD1 for the fact it likely won’t be until September and that there may possibly still be closures even after they reopen if they need to stem the flow again.

But can a load of other business open again if schools aren’t open? Maybe nurseries would for childcare of younger children though.

M

Ignore the last M, phone being weird

Do you really have to ask??

Because prolonged lockdown will cause increased deaths - have you not seen in the news that two families have been annihilated this week by the men of the family?

We've only been in lockdown two weeks and 9 people have been murdered!

The effects of long term lockdown are huge and will lead to long term economic downturn with poverty, suicides and mental health problems.

It will be about balancing lives lost with the economy.

There are loads of news articles about it, if you google...

beyond the medium & long health consequences of recession/depression (all bad - the 'economy' is what funds health & social care despite mn-ers who seem to think it's an abstraction) there are immediate medical costs too.

All non-covid medicine has stopped - we are 'saving the NHS' by not treating people. Screening services, maternity care, cancer services, orthopaedics, trauma, paediatrics. Everything.

... the president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health said that due to the current strains on the NHS, he had seen cases whereby children with non coronavirus illnesses had died or had fallen seriously unwell because they were not seen early enough.

I think they will have to try different things, so we're in lockdown for 3 months, then only shielded groups for a while then other groups. We all have to get it eventually but they want everyone at the same time. I dont know what's happened in China now they are out of strict lockdown.

Because prolonged lockdown will cause increased deaths

Moreso because GPs and hospitals appear to have given up on people with other health conditions. My OH was mid way through cancer treatment and they just cancelled it without explanation of consequences, risks, or if/when it will re-start. Phoned oncology many times, each time promised to call back, no one ever rings. He's just been thrown to the wolves and abandoned. He's going to end up dying of cancer due to lack of treatment whereas he "may" have survived Covid-19 as he's generally fit and healthy (a non lifestyle related cancer!).

All non-covid medicine has stopped - we are 'saving the NHS' by not treating people. Screening services, maternity care, cancer services, orthopaedics, trauma, paediatrics. Everything.

Yes, more people are going to die of other things than would have died due to Covid-19 if they don't get the hospitals open again.