Sweden, could we do it the swedish way?

[SQuueze]

Maybe they have just got lucky but they aren't in complete lockdown. There is social distancing and other measures in place. But with masks, not coughing on people, a few rules, could we make it work?

I have family that live in Sweden and one is a nurse she is terrified of going to work. They don't have adequate PPE and she feels Sweden is heading for disaster.

Yes it's a less populated country but the government has had to close the ski resorts. As people were skiing in Italy then coming home and skiing in Sweden too causing a spread in cases. In the densely populated cities they will see big increases in cases.

I work for a Swedish company and all staff aside from those on the production line are working from home. The CEO has looked at what's happening in other countries and is ordering a mandatory WFH to keep staff safe

Once you're talking about being more than an order of magnitude out, the actual numbers don't matter than much thatgingergirl.

Apparently 50% of Swedes live alone. Different culture but they are taking a huge risk. What if it all goes wrong? I’d rather go overboard than under.

Their numbers are currently going steeply up.
Also, their society and healthcare is completely elsewhere.

You can limp on for up to a month after becoming symptomatic before you enter the numbers of dead (sorry if that phraseology seems harsh but I am a bit sick of hearing 'lockdown doesn't work'). Look at the number of new cases and when you see those numbers stalling, plateauing, then dropping, then you make a judgement on lockdown.

Nobody is envisaging this lasting in this form for 9 months. The plan will be lockdown-partial release-smaller lockdown-bigger release-shielders lockdown-all release-watch carefully-partial lockdown in hotspots-and so on and so forth until an effective vaccine is rolled out. That depends on the number of new cases.
And I expect the UK policy on vaccinations to be very different at that point, including those on measles etc. I sincerely hope we have a very different view on the subject of public health and common societal responsibilities.
This is not our rights being infringed - this is us fulfilling our part of the contract we entered into when we sent our dc to school, when granny had her hip replacement, when we took the kings shilling of child benefit, child tax credit.

Sweden has had sensible social distancing in force for quite some time.

It really, really hasn't.

We are in Sweden. Although the government has not put and strict regulations in place most people I know have been self isolating for around three weeks, only going out to shops and for exercise. Our nursery only has around 8 out of 40+ kids in.

I have no idea what other demographics in the country are up to, the younger ones definitely seem a lot less concerned.

So many posters on MN desperate to find reasons why lockdown is wrong.

My concern is when we start mixing again we will see another curve and peak.

That is the intention, although with a shallow peak. A period of lockdown now to slow the number of serious infections to the point that anyone who needs treatment can get it and buying time for the necessary medical equipment etc to be procured, drug tests to be performed in the hope of finding effective treatments. Then restrictions will be lifted somewhat until the rate of infection threatens the ability of the health service to cope. With increased infrastructure and more people recovering and hopefully possessing immunity, theoretically future lockdowns should be shorter until we get to the point where we can manage with just social distancing, no mass gatherings etc.

Those exchanges between Italy and Sweden could be a significant factor in how it pans out for the Swedes?

I am in Ireland and I have not heard of any unrest. Where has that come from?

A much higher percentage of Swedes live alone.

There is very little inter-generational living in Sweden.

They've warded it off a bit longer, but I saw estimates yesterday that they figure roughly 50% of the population is going to have it soon.

Apparently 50% of Swedes live alone.

It's 30 something %.

From what I hear, they are doing restrictions, but they are light compared with other countries.

The school holidays start around 10 June in Sweden and go on for 10 weeks, meaning that they only have a couple of months or so before schools are closed anyway. Add in the fact that they are starting their trajectory later than most countries, and it may well be the case that they are choosing to deliberately keep restrictions light right now, in order to "get some of the infections out of the way during the warmer months when demand on healthcare services is low."

Because if they have had few infections so far and are only a couple of months away from a long school break, that could mean that if they were to push for really hard restrictions now, they could wind up with a population that still has very low levels of towards the end of this year as flu season beckons, resulting in a serious winter crisis, and it would be difficult to carry out a lockdown again in the winter if the population had already spent spring in lockdown--there would be no money or goodwill left.

Sweden is a very very digitized society--cash is barely used and everything is automated and computerized. I suspect the elderly are a lot more comfortable with technology in most countries, making it easier to cocoon them.

In short, Sweden's light restrictions may be OK for Sweden at this point, which is not necessarily to say that it would work for the UK right now.

"a population that still has very low levels of towards the end of this year" should be "a population that still has very low levels of IMMUNITY towards the end of this year"

Mashed potato, I’m a teacher, your daughter should not be in school.

The union guidance is anyone with a suppressed immune system should be at home.

All my colleagues with other issues are not in school. There aren’t enough kids for all our teachers to be in anyway.

Thanks nauticant - my maths is rubbish (Grade 2 CSE in 1972!), but I've looked that term up and I think I understand it!

So many posters on MN desperate to find reasons why lockdown is wrong.

Some people take a delight in being contrarians. They'll get things wrong time and time again but occasionally, in a stopped clock kind of way, get it right and then it becomes one of the things they can crow about till their dying day.

That was the thing, I was thinking to myself, Sweden is sparsely populated, then googled and read the figures the wrong way round. So yes, I think less densely populated areas are not being hit as hard. Add to that, that the more affluent are more likely to travel internationally, and they usually live and work in cities. I think that's why it has spread dramatically in cities like London (particularly the affluent parts). Hertfordshire is another place that has been hit hard relatively speaking as a lot of similar counties such as Kent/Surrey are on the commuter belt to London and/or are affluent/skiing.

Who'd have thought affluence might have spread this. Skiing, international travel, cruising. Not what average Joe aspires to. He's lucky if he goes down the Nag's Head!

One thing I do keep pondering is how can the lockdown have been the right thing when the deaths are climbing so high still in Spain (as an example) Could the fact people being cooped up inside mean the virus just keeps being passed more quickly around family members/neighbours hence the spread and spike in deaths being so extreme there? I’m probably clutching but I guess we’ll find out if being free (like Sweden) meant the virus spread less quickly

People don't like being locked down. I'll state quite simply that it does not suit me to be locked down, purely for selfish reasons i.e. my mental health. Of course we'd like to find another excuse not to be locked down.
On the other hand, you have people who want to be locked down so that they can stay home with their children - again in my view for their own reasons.

Mashed potato, I’m a teacher, your daughter should not be in school.

The union guidance is anyone with a suppressed immune system should be at home.

All my colleagues with other issues are not in school. There aren’t enough kids for all our teachers to be in anyway.

Is that in Sweden?

There also seems to be confusion about who is at risk and who isn't. In her area they say having you spleen removed carries no extra risk. In Stockholm region they say it does make you high risk. Folkhälsomyndigheten guidelines are vague and just say 'that if your immune system is compromised you're may be at higher risk, but don't specify what they mean.

We will be doing it the Swedish way soon, purely because we cannot sustain this lockdown for too long.

Once we have got past the initial spike (perhaps late May onwards?), yes, we probably will---because anything else would be economically unsustainable. Hopefully the lockdown will have got people's attention and will ensure "reasonable" levels of compliance. As mentioned above, in most countries it may make sense to get a reasonable number of infections out of the way during the summer months.

And yes it would help if everybody wore masks, but I have already ranted about this on more than one thread.

Let's see where they are next month and then we can judge better. It seems they're prioritizing economy at this stage. Maybe it'll work out ok for them, maybe not.

I agree, I think Sweden are just biding their time. They’ll up the measures soon but don’t want to go to early with them.

I think we all need to stop thinking a prolonged lockdown will solve this problem. It won’t and it will hammer the economy (and therefore cost more lives) in the long term.

We need a long term strategy.

@Tonyaster oh honey.... You do realise that the effect of the lockdown, in Spain and everywhere else, won't be seen before 3 or 4 weeks. Had they not been in Lockdown, they would have 3 or 4 times more deaths and it would keep on growing exponentially. The lockdown isn;t a magical overnight solution. But there is a reason 2 Billion people are in Lockdown now.

Let's see what happens in Sweden in 2 to 3 weeks before we claim they managed to outsmart the Virus