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Studies corner

459 replies

Branster · 02/04/2020 23:00

There are so many snippets of information regarding small tests, case studies and even research from all over the world, some interesting, some surprising, some hopeful. Too many and too small or sometimes obscure to make the main news

If you’d like to share you are welcome to join the thread.

I’ll make a start with these findings from Canada about a potential inhibitor drug

www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200402144526.htm

OP posts:
Thread gallery
39
BigChocFrenzy · 11/08/2020 12:31

USA Children and COVID-19: State Data Report

A joint report from the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association
Summary of publicly reported data from 49 states, NYC, DC, PR, and GU
Version: 7/30/20

downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AAP%20and%20CHA%20-%20Children%20and%20COVID-19%20State%20Data%20Report%207.30.20%20FINAL.pdf

338,982 confirmed cases in children / teens
= 8.8% of the USA's confirmed 5 million cases

447 confirmed cases / 100,000 children
Huge variation in % and incidence between states with very low / very high population density

89 deaths of children
0-0.3% of child cases result in death - huge variation in states again

0.6%-8.9% of all child cases required hospitalisation

  • very wide variation between US states, healthcare, treatment, reporting etc far more than would be likely within e.g. the UK
BigChocFrenzy · 11/08/2020 20:58

Transient dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 as England exited national lockdown

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.05.20169078v1

Phase 2 of Imperial's REACT swab study into COVID infectivity in England from May to early July, so to just before the main relaxation

Phase 1 had shown much higher % infections in healthworkers, but Phase 2 found this had amost reduced to community average

Surprisingly, the biggest fall in positive tests was in the 18-24 age group (but this may have risen again since early July)
Positive tests remained high in black & S Asian minorities

Also found R reduced during early lockdown from >1 to 0.89

alreadytaken · 12/08/2020 07:40

This is not research as such - but a useful summary of saliva tests, who developed them and where they are being tried out. www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/saliva-tests-how-they-work-and-what-they-bring-to-covid-19-67720

BigChocFrenzy · 12/08/2020 19:35

Assessment of Deaths From COVID-19 and From Seasonal Influenza

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2766121

This apparent equivalence of deaths from COVID-19 and seasonal influenza does not match frontline clinical conditions,
especially in some hot zones of the pandemic where ventilators have been in short supply and many hospitals have been stretched beyond their limits.

The demand on hospital resources during the COVID-19 crisis has not occurred before in the US,
even during the worst of influenza seasons.

Yet public officials continue to draw comparisons between seasonal influenza and SARS-CoV-2 mortality,
often in an attempt to minimize the effects of the unfolding pandemic.

The root of such incorrect comparisons may be a knowledge gap regarding how seasonal influenza and COVID-19 data are publicly reported.

The CDC, like many similar disease control agencies around the world, presents seasonal influenza morbidity and mortality
not as raw counts but as calculated estimates based on submitted International Classification of Diseases codes.

Between 2013-2014 and 2018-2019, the reported yearly estimated influenza deaths ranged from 23,000 to 61,000.

Over that same time period, however, the number of counted influenza deaths was between 3,448 and 15,620 yearly.

On average, the CDC estimates of deaths attributed to influenza were nearly 6 times greater than its reported counted numbers.

Conversely, COVID-19 fatalities are at present being counted and reported directly, not estimated.

As a result, the more valid comparison would be to compare weekly counts of COVID-19 deaths to weekly counts of seasonal influenza deaths.

BigChocFrenzy · 12/08/2020 23:09

CDC: Symptom Duration and Risk Factors for Delayed Return to Usual Health Among Outpatients with COVID-19 in a Multistate Health Care Systems Network — United States, March–June 2020

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm?scid=mm6930e11_w

Relatively little is known about the clinical course of COVID-19 and return to baseline health for persons with milder, outpatient illness.
......
In a multistate telephone survey of symptomatic adults who had a positive outpatient test result for SARS-CoV-2 infection,
35% had not returned to their usual state of health when interviewed 2–3 weeks after testing.

Among persons aged 18–34 years with no chronic medical conditions, one in five had not returned to their usual state of health.

CoffeeandCroissant · 13/08/2020 11:43

"First results of REACT research out today; three papers on validity, usability & prevalence (2 published, 1 preprint)

Thread with key findings of study of 100,000 randomly selected adults who used a home test for IgG antibodies."

mobile.twitter.com/profhelenward/status/1293803260441169920

^Prevalence (England) 6.0% (95% CI: 5.8, 6.1).

Highest prevalence in

  • London (13.0% [12.3, 13.6]),
  • people of Black or Asian (mainly South Asian) ethnicity (17.3% [15.8, 19.1] and 11.9% [11.0, 12.8] respectively)
  • Aged 18-24 years (7.9% [7.3, 8.5])

One third (32.2%, [31.0-33.4]) of antibody positive individuals reported no symptoms (almost half in 65+ yrs)

We estimate that 3.36 million (3.21, 3.51) people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in England to end June 2020

  • Overall infection fatality ratio of 0.90% (0.86, 0.94) varies by age and sex^

www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/real-time-assessment-of-community-transmission-fin

CoffeeandCroissant · 13/08/2020 12:10

Image showing key findings:
mobile.twitter.com/Davewwest/status/1293829063786868736/photo/1

alreadytaken · 13/08/2020 20:30

Do you think the over 65s just forgot they'd had symptoms Grin. Will make a lot of people happy to read that.

whenwillthemadnessend · 13/08/2020 21:37

Really interesting about the rates in London. Great thread.

CoffeeandCroissant · 13/08/2020 22:01

Also a good summary here:
www.imperial.ac.uk/news/201893/largest-study-home-coronavirus-antibody-testing/

CoffeeandCroissant · 14/08/2020 13:38

COVID-19, children, and schools: overlooked and at risk.

(Preprint version of an article submitted for publication in the Medical Journal of Australia. Changes may be made before final publication.)

Abstract

"It is widely thought that children are much less susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection than adults and do not play a substantial role in transmission. However, emerging research suggests this perception is unfounded. Seroprevalence and contact tracing studies show children are similarly vulnerable and transmit the virus to a meaningful degree. Research suggesting otherwise is hampered by substantial bias. Additionally, large clusters in school settings have been reported, with implications for the control of community transmission. Risk-reduction strategies must be implemented in schools as a matter of urgency. "

www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/covid-19-children-and-schools-overlooked-and-risk

alreadytaken · 14/08/2020 14:16

The virus may sometimes be identified in the skin when nasal swabs are negative - and Covid toes are real.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31754-2/fulltext?dgcid=raven_jbs_etoc_email

MarshaBradyo · 14/08/2020 14:18

Good idea for thread

BigChocFrenzy · 15/08/2020 10:10

"Immunity" and T cells
From a scientist specialising in vaccines & the immune system:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1293344524731691008.html

Shane Crotty@profshanecrotty

1/ There are various tweets misinterpreting COVID-19 “pre-existing immunity” and making dangerous claims about herd immunity.

Since many of those claims refer to our scientific papers,
we will reiterate the facts.

2/ Our 1st scientific paper showed that ~50% of unexposed people have T cells that recognized SARS-CoV-2 already doi.org/10.1016/j.cell….

The most obvious conclusion was these were memory T cells from previous common cold coronavirus infections,
but that was not directly shown.

3/ Our 2nd paper, very recently published,
showed that these were memory T cells from previous common cold coronavirus infections
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871

Five other labs have also published related findings
doi.org/10.1038/s41577…

4/ These observations about pre-existing T cell immunity (also call "crossreactive immune memory",
which avoids the word "immunity" that sometimes gets misinterpreted as “protective immunity”
[sorry, immunology is complicated] )
are important because...

5/ ...these memory cells MAY impact people’s responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection,
or COVID-19 vaccines.

6/ Therefore, we have pointed out that these coronavirus crossreactive immune memory T cells are important,
to pay attention to in human COVID-19 studies this year.

7/ We SPECULATE that it is conceivable that these T cells may potentially reduce COVID-19 disease severity,
based on things we know about flu and T cells.

8/ These are only speculations (no data)
and because of their potential importance it is key for scientists to test these ideas, as quickly as possible.

While scientists are racing as fast as possible,
sophisticated research like this usually takes a lot of time and resources.

9/ We, and other labs, are working hard on these unanswered questions.

10/ Additionally, even if our most optimistic speculations about crossreactive T cell memory were found to be correct,
it would mean that just as many people would get infected with SARS-CoV-2, but fewer would become severely ill and die from COVID-19.

11/ T cells generally don’t completely prevent infections, they limit disease
(make it shorter and/or less serious).

Thus, wearing a mask is much more effective than hoping you and the people around you have pre-existing T cell memory.
Wearing a mask stops infections.

BigChocFrenzy · 15/08/2020 10:15

PHE Surveillance Report 3-11 August

Total % of the population with antibodies is falling - waning immunity ?

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/909424/WeeklyyCOVID19SurveillanceeReportweekk33FINAL.pdf

The age group 17-29 has the highest % with antibodies, but that's only 8.2% (highest estimate within 95% confidence level is 10%)

London is still the highest region, but only about 8.5%

"Declines in prevalence can be partially explained by demographic differences in the donor population as lockdown measures are relaxed, for example regular donors aged 70 years and above were not allowed to donate during lockdown,

but this exclusion was lifted from week 26.

Waning immunity may also be a contributing factor to the lower prevalence."

CoffeeandCroissant · 15/08/2020 21:27

Summary of recent lab research on the role of T cells in adaptive immunity to COVID-19.

Main message: The human adaptive immune system plays a central role in recognizing and fighting infections and in protecting from future reinfection. Although the humoral (B-cell) and cell-mediated (T-cell) arms of the immune system typically work in concert, in some instances, one plays a more dominant role than the other. Initial research on the immune system’s response to COVID-19 focused heavily on B cells and antibodies. More information is now emerging about the role of T cells. The newest science focuses on two areas: preexisting cell-mediated immunity from T cells formed after exposure to other human coronaviruses may play a role in how COVID-19 affects some people, and T cells may be a player in long-term protection from reinfection after recovery from COVID-19. But, there is as yet no definitive knowledge about these topics.
Full summary at:
preventepidemics.org/covid19/science/weekly-science-review/august-1-7-2020/

That website is also useful for keeping up to date on studies as their "weekly science review is a snapshot of the new and emerging scientific evidence related to COVID-19."

CoffeeandCroissant · 15/08/2020 21:57

Some caution required, as small numbers involved and not yet peer reviewed, but "SARSCoV2 study by
@GreningerLab provides first direct evidence that neutralizing antibodies are a correlate of protection against #COVID19 in humans. "

Thread explaining the study:
mobile.twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1294378350782414850

Link to study (preprint):
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.13.20173161v1

Provides hope that an initial infection should provide immunity at least in the short term and that a vaccine should too?

alreadytaken · 16/08/2020 08:51

Thanks for the fishing boat study, that is hopeful.

A reminder that there is a study up thread that shows T cells only activate when vitamin D levels are sufficient.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/08/2020 22:33

Four months into the COVID-19 pandemic, Sweden’s prized herd immunity is nowhere in sight

Comparing Sweden to its Scandinavian neighbours - low population density and similar culture - rather than to the UK, which is a common mistake by those advocating herd immunity

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076820945282

It is clear that not only are the rates of viral infection, hospitalisation and mortality (per million population) much higher than those seen in neighbouring Scandinavian countries,
but also that the time-course of the epidemic in Sweden is different, with continued persistence of higher infection and mortality (as one is inexorably linked to the other) well beyond the few critical weeks period seen in Denmark, Finland and Norway,
whose rapid lock-down measures seem to have been initially more successful in curtailing the infection surge.

CoffeeandCroissant · 18/08/2020 12:51

"People who wear a face mask significantly lower the risk of spreading Covid-19 to others through speaking and coughing, research by @SchoolOfEng_UoE and
@roslininstitute suggests." (Pre print)
www.ed.ac.uk/covid-19-response/latest-news/masks-block-spread-of-covid-linked-droplets

alreadytaken · 19/08/2020 17:30

The importance of lymphopenia in severe disease

jintensivecare.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40560-020-00453-4

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ijlh.13288

and why opening pubs doesnt help pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2248759/

BigChocFrenzy · 20/08/2020 19:37

(Public Health Germany) RKI: Opinion of the Standing Vaccination Commission on afuture vaccination against COVID-19 (as of August 17, 2020

Ethics, assessing vaccine safety, need and which groups to prioritise

<a class="break-all" href="https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translatec?client=tw-ob&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.de&sl=de&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/3520.pdf%3F__blob%3DpublicationFile&usg=ALkJrhh-s04eEsxy1aVxH1AJQAbStabDOw" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate<a class="break-all" href="https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translatec?client=tw-ob&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.de&sl=de&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/3520.pdf%3F__blob%3DpublicationFile&usg=ALkJrhh-s04eEsxy1aVxH1AJQAbStabDOw" rel="nofollow" target="blank">c?client=tw-ob&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.de&sl=de&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/355<a class="break-all" href="https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translatec?client=tw-ob&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.de&sl=de&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/3520.pdf%3F__blob%3DpublicationFile&usg=ALkJrhh-s04eEsxy1aVxH1AJQAbStabDOw" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">20.pdf%3F__blob%3DpublicationFile&usg=ALkJrhh-s04eEsxy1aVxH1AJQAbStabDOw

alreadytaken · 21/08/2020 15:08
  1. That’s an error.

The requested URL /translatec?client=tw-ob&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.de&sl=de&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/3520.pdf%3F__blob%3DpublicationFile&usg=ALkJrhh-s04eEsxy1aVxH1AJQAbStabDOw was not found on this server. That’s all we know.

alreadytaken · 21/08/2020 15:16

Case study - 4 patients given vitamin D. Still not proof but added to the reasons to make sure you have adequate levels.

journals.lww.com/americantherapeutics/Abstract/9000/Vitamin_D_Supplementation_in_COVID_19_Patients__A.98214.aspx

BigChocFrenzy · 21/08/2020 17:43

(Public Health Germany) RKI: Opinion of the Standing Vaccination Commission on afuture vaccination against COVID-19 (as of August 17, 2020

Ethics, assessing vaccine safety, need and which groups to prioritise

(Above link error 404 caused by 3 underline signs in link text being altered by MN

Original German language - substitute each "x" by the "underline character"
i.e. a single and a double underline, then put link into Google translate)

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/35x20.pdf?xxblob=publicationFile

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