Will the lockdown be extended ?

[thatswhytheladyisatramp]

After the three weeks are up?
I'm assuming so but my friend seems to think it won't and shops are going to magically re open.
I've told her we are likely in for the long haul

12 weeks minimum

Peak throughout May

May is going to be utterly shit

"UK must remain in full lockdown until June to avoid worst effects of #covid19, UK govt leading epidemiology adviser said.
Senior govt figures more optimistic, suggesting restrictions could be eased sooner than June: peak of crisis expected in week of April 12."

"Professor Ferguson said: “We’re going to have to keep these measures [full lockdown] in place, in my view, for a significant period of time probably until end of May, maybe even early June. May is optimistic.”
When lifted, enforce some forms of social distancing for months more.

Cabinet sources said two criteria would have to be met before Johnson could lift the lockdown:

the number of new cases must be stable or falling;

and the critical care capacity of NHS hospitals must not be exceeded.

"Prof Ferguson said once lockdown is over, people will still need to practise social distancing for many more months to avoid a resurgence, could mean schools/universities staying closed until the autumn, and people continuing to work from home rather than return to their offices."
mobile.twitter.com/lindayueh/status/1244203389325582336/

How do you all think restrictions will be lifted? What will be allowed first? My DH is hoping pubs will re open but I can't see that happening anytime soon.

I think a minimum of another 3 weeks, more likely late May. And it won't end with an 'as you were'. I think it will be social distancing and some services opening back up. Eg none emergency vets, dentists, respite care etc. Probably some lower risk non essential trades and possibly some retail.

Either way I don't believe this lockdown will end and we'll gradually go back to normal, I think we'll have a cycle of lockdown followed by partial release till at least winter.

Why does everyone kept saying dentists will open back up?
The aerosol is deadly if the patient is incubating the virus. No dentistry without FFP3 masks.
Dentistry will be closed for ages. It isn’t worth the risk. The aerosol means high viral load and makes you very ill, even if young and fit. No thank you.

It'll be going another six months at least I reckon.

Not a chance of it being lifted after the three weeks, till June as a minimum, perhaps longer, would be my guess.

*"Cabinet sources said two criteria would have to be met before Johnson could lift the lockdown:

the number of new cases must be stable or falling;

and the critical care capacity of NHS hospitals must not be exceeded."*

If the number of tests done per day increases, it won't be possible to know for certain if the number of cases is increasing or falling will it? Because the more you test, the more cases you will find. Of course you can estimate - taking into account the change in the categories of people you are testing.

I think it will carry on but I do think after that it will switch to town by town, especially if the antibody tests start showing that lots of people already had it.
Personally, I think why should we all suffer well into June because the likes of London, Slough and Sheffield can't get it together to stay home?

@yearinyearout I think schools will open first, as they were the last to shut. I think they’ll open schools and relax restrictions at the beginning of June for the last half term, to try and make the second peak be over summer, rather than waiting until September which could create a second peak in winter. I think the government will turn the social distancing/lockdown on and off to control when it spreads

Definitely. Boris was careful to say review in three weeks. I think we will be in lockdown for a good few months yet.

Portugal has just been extended to 17 April and I expect it will be extended again. I think it will be end May before things change significantly here

Anyone thinking the restrictions will be lifted are deluding themselves. If anything, they may tighten. It would be great if the government could get a comprehensive antibodies test up and running.

I think we will see lockdown continue into June. Schools will remain as they are until re-opening in September.

I would like to see parks open during summer months. Perhaps introducing park wardens during summer months to ensure social distancing.

Mummyoflittledragon scientists are working on this very hard

It makes me laugh that they think the government has made all these financial changes on the basis that people would stop work for 3 weeks! Of course it's not going to be just 3 weeks. They would have said stuff you if they thought it was only going to last that long!

Strict lockdown until June.

Social distancing still in force after that.

Probably then we get a second wave of cases around July/August, and then once the cases are heading up again we have another strict lockdown period to give the NHS time to deal with those cases.

I think we’ll see alternating lockdowns followed by relaxations, so that we can gradually get to the sixty percent immunity we need.

I’m honestly not even banking on schools opening in September.

The antibody test will be a game changer, and there may be a two speed approach by May, with those given the all clear able to work and support the economy, and those that are vulnerable remaining shielded.

Any medic will tell you that this week we entered the peak in the UK, and it will continue until Easter. We should see a fall in the both the numbers of deaths and infection after that, and mid May I would expect to see some easing of some restrictions.

By June some phased openings of schools and nurseries and a very steady but careful return to work, with many, many restrictions still remaining.
My guess is that they will wish to monitor any potential second wave carefully, and the summer is the best time for this to happen if it does. NHS capacity will be much stronger in the summer when we compare it to the winter months.

Keeping people on a lockdown to autumn is not possible or feasible, but I can see possible outbreaks and lockdowns happening again later in the year, but these will be shorter and the response will be better due to experience.

tony There is no evidence at all suggesting May will be the peak. We are climbing now into the peak now, and it is expected to be the 12th of April. Please link the modelling that suggests mid May. Thanks.

butter thank you for posting the graph, maybe it is desirable to have another wave in July or August is one question?
Secondly most scientists seem to agree that the real peak of worldwide cases could be seen in the winter 2020/2021 so a mass return to school and work in autumn would almost guarantee a huge surge at a time the NHS is least able to cope.

Even if the vaccine is ready it will not be rolled out immediately, however some progress has been seen on antidotes, which may change everything!

This doesn't get mentioned so much, but anti virals are being tested at the moment - a successful trial of those could also change the situation to some extent.

Lock down will he 3 months in total minimum

I'm thinking 3 months then a slight lifting for a short while, maybe even a very severe lockdown for a couple of weeks around the peak.

When is the 3 week review date up.? Anyone know .?