Do we need to create an artificial spike? If so, when?

[CheriLittlebottom]

Was thinking about this off the back of random musing about when schools might reopen.

Do we need to try to get a lot of society infected with this in the early summer, say June, so that the NHS have June, July, August to deal with the biggest wave of sick people, then hopefully see numbers coming down from September as we start getting into autumn and winter?

Obviously we can't stay in lockdown forever, or until there's a vaccine, the economy will completely tank. Is there a "best" time to increase transmission in the hope that we can push up herd immunity? Was also thinking about those in the shielded groups, how long can they realistically keep themselves completely isolated?

If schools did reopen after the May half term, and most people went back to work (not the most at risk) would that work? Would the NHS have the capacity and equipment in place by then?

I don't know enough about transmission rates etc to know if this is a good idea or not!

Most of the country won’t have their first spike until the end of April or maybe later.

We're headed towards more serious cases than can be properly dealt with anyway so wtf would we want a 'spike'?

They don’t want a spike they want to ‘squash’ the distribution so cases are spread across the year to allow the nhs to cope. This may mean more younger and older people dying if it overlaps with a nasty case of the flu as covid with flu isn’t a good combination.

What is the point of protecting winter by fucking summer?

No, I don't want to create a spike so the schools will open!

My thinking was:

1. A vaccine is 12-18 months away
2. People cannot isolate for over a year
3. The global economy will go bust if we keep a shutdown going until a vaccine is available
4. If that means we need to artificially control when the virus is spreading, in order to make treating the people infected manageable, when would we be best to allow more people to contract it?
5. Would that be over the summer, as in the winter the NHS' resources are already overstretched.
6. If it does need to be over summer, would it make sense to open schools in late may / early June?

I'm not a psychopath, or a sociopath, or anything else. I'm trying to think about what is likely to need to happen. CV isn't going to go away on its own, a vaccine is over a year away, no country has the resources to keep its population under lockdown and economically inactive for that long. So what do we do?

So what do we do?

Listen to what people who do understand transmission rates etc have to say rather than speculating on SM perhaps?

It isn't psychopathic and it sort of fits with loosening restrictions so that the economy can revive a bit, which is a likely strategy I would think. Also correct that we can't stay like this for 12-18 months, there is evidence of civil unrest in Italy already for example, not just because of being trapped inside but also so many people running out of money.

I would say testing is the key to this, together with continuing to shield those most at risk. Once w know how many people have had the virus and are (theoretically) immune then the government will have good information to work with when deciding how to relax restrictions and model likely hospital admissions.

Reading that back it probably sounded snippier than I meant.

A great outcome of testing would be that it would show that a much larger number of the population have already been infected than they currently think. But that is maybe wishful thinking on my part.

Didn't realise speculation was banned now too . I said clearly in the opening post that I didn't know enough about transmission etc. I'm not saying "I think we should", I'm asking "do you think this might happen?". Big difference.

Sleep that's a good point about testing, I'd forgotten that we will hopefully be seeing more testing soon. Perhaps it will be a case of if you've been tested & had it already you'll be restriction free?

I'm wondering how long the shielded groups can stay shielded, both economically and from a mental health standpoint. Humans are social creatures, prolonged isolation is going to be incredibly difficult to enforce.

I think you are right to talk about this Cheri and I am sure gov ministers spend hours talking about it too

Most of us will get it. We can’t wait for a vaccine for the whole world as we will run out of food first. I don’t say this to panic people but to say that we will need to ‘time peaks’ so health care can cope. So I agree we will need to be let out in batches before the summer as people will be better able to manage symptoms in warmer weather and fewer other illnesses around.

Yes. Sadly the version we are currently following has the second round spike in autumn, heading nicely into flu season.

Cheri I think that is how they are doing things in Germany re certificate if you have had it. But the application in practice will be interesting, I would imagine there will be a sizeable number of people who will say 'screw it, I'd rather take my chances with the virus than continue living like this' and be up in arms about some people having little or no restrictions on movement whilst others do? Its challenging.

I really don't know why people are slagging off the OP---lockdown for months on end is not possible because the economy will fall over (which will in the long run kill a lot of people as well), and it would be better to get some infections out of the way during the summer months, well before flu season.

Had the same conversation with oh yesterday at what point will all this self isolating be no good as a strategy basically I agree with what your saying

I thought the computer modeling the government was using a lot had already done modeling for relaxing then tightening restcitions over next 12-18 month.

Bascilly we get past this peak relax restirction then impose again when next peak starts to build up.

They are also still hoping to get anti-body testing going - so they know how many and who has already had it and persumably have some immunity and they'll be reasearch looking into how long that immunity lasts.

Plus given time and ongoing research they may find exiting drugs that can treat it so more people survieve going forward and with more time they can continue to increase capacity with equipment like ventilators.

So while I agree most people can't isolate for over a year - trying to avoid a massive peak is still the best plan.

@CheriLittlebottom you are talking complete sense. Honestly to be called a psychopath is beyond me. I think some people think this virus will fizzle away or we can be on lockdown for 12-18 months. Because they give no credible alternative other than throw rude insults which is highly childish honestly.

What you are saying makes complete sense and will naturally happen anyway.

Nobody is talking about staying in lockdown until a vaccine comes along. Once the number new cases become small enough they will ease us out of lockdown and they will hopefully introduce targeted measures to try to maintain transmission at a low level. They won't try to deliberate spread the virus as that will just force us back into lockdown again.

As a big spike means more people will die (directly of the virus, plus everyone else who cannot get treatment or intensive care for all the other conditions and accidents that will still be happening)

It's a very callous policy, which will wreck everything - for the economic damage from flattened spike will also occur (possibly in even worse form) when all goods and services fall over completely for a while. Just let the implications of that sink in. And think why no country anywhere is letting that scenario play out

You are not crazy OP. It's not a simple case of "the fewer cases the better". A certain number of people will get infected - it's just the timing that is being managed.

I'm in Australia and there is now concern that one state (WA) has flattened the curve too much, which would extend the lock down period far to long, and put the state out of step with the rest of country - the eastern states would be past their peak and back open for business while WA wouldn't be, which isn't a realistic option. So if this trend continues they will roll back the restrictions there with the idea of increasing the number of infections.

Notdavid - plenty of people do think we are in lockdown until vaccine - my neighbours for a start.

Spike was maybe the wrong term - I'm thinking more like enough people catching it to increase herd immunity while keeping the number of people needing treatment at a level the NHS can cope with, on top of everything normal that they have to deal with. That's why is was thinking about summer, as that's presumably when the NHS will have the most spare capacity?

It's all absolutely mental

The problem with certification if you have had it is

1. there's no guarantees that you can't get it again (we don't know yet)
2. there's no guarantees that you couldn't still carry it and infect other people
3. it could create a new kind of dystopian caste system, further penalising the old, those with disabilities and existing health conditions

What we all need to grasp is, the world has already changed. I don't think things will ever get back to the old normal.

I think some people think this virus will fizzle away or we can be on lockdown for 12-18 months. Because they give no credible alternative other than throw rude insults which is highly childish honestly.

This. I can guarantee that governments all over the world are trying to work out when is the optimum timing for allowing more infections.

As for certifications being "mental"--Germany is doing this and they have a far better record of dealing with this crisis than most other countries so far. Current thinking is that immunity will be long lasting (not permanent perhaps, but then it does not need to be).