Do we need to create an artificial spike? If so, when?

[CheriLittlebottom]

Was thinking about this off the back of random musing about when schools might reopen.

Do we need to try to get a lot of society infected with this in the early summer, say June, so that the NHS have June, July, August to deal with the biggest wave of sick people, then hopefully see numbers coming down from September as we start getting into autumn and winter?

Obviously we can't stay in lockdown forever, or until there's a vaccine, the economy will completely tank. Is there a "best" time to increase transmission in the hope that we can push up herd immunity? Was also thinking about those in the shielded groups, how long can they realistically keep themselves completely isolated?

If schools did reopen after the May half term, and most people went back to work (not the most at risk) would that work? Would the NHS have the capacity and equipment in place by then?

I don't know enough about transmission rates etc to know if this is a good idea or not!

Although it has been said many times, I will repeat here. There are viruses - such as small pox - for which we have no herd immunity. Herd immunity is a term from vaccinations.

You can keep saying it, @istherelifeafter40 but it doesn't make it true.

We probably don't have herd immunity for smallpox now but that is because it has been eradicated.

Herd immunity is not a term from vaccinations although it is important in designing vaccine programmes and vaccination can create herd immunity. Herd immunity can also be achieved from natural immunity (catching and recovering from the disease). In fact, herd immunity was first described from observation of naturally acquired herd immunity to measles.

You are right that this is a humanitarian disaster though.

Because it's an interesting discussion to have?

Well as long as you find cheerfully discussing the deaths of tens of thousands of people "interesting" then

Why do people talk about it being less spreadable in Summer?
The UK isn’t particularly hot even at the height of summer, no way as warm as Indonesia which Covid-19 is powering through at a heartbreaking rate.

Are you kidding me Cohle? In the light of the utter shitshow so far, what on earth makes you think the government has the faintest clue what they are doing? Granted they might be quick learners but other countries have looked on in horror and disbelief at our choices and actions
My favourite small moment was the 'dog ate my homework' excuse for not taking part in the EU wide effort to source ventilators: we didn't read the email. Like the tale of dogs and homework, a story lacking even a passing nod to the truth
What kind of idiot looks at our government and thinks 'there's a group of people who know what they are doing?'

going OK; I didn't research it properly, thanks for pointing out. I read a paper discussing diseases that were managed though confinement - leprosy, for instance; rather than herd immunity. In any case, for me, this is not the question; the question is - as you say - that going for herd immunity directly is a humanitarian catastrophe...

I don't think anyone has the answer to those questions yet @peajotter. It would take a very long time to reach the herd immunity threshold if we keep measures in place to slow transmission and shield the most vulnerable. We really need widespread serological testing of the population as a whole to understand what is going on. We can't even be sure what the herd immunity threshold is if we don't know how contagious the virus is, which we can't be sure of until we know how many people have been infected.

In the light of the utter shitshow so far, what on earth makes you think the government has the faintest clue what they are doing?

There is much to criticise about the government's response. That doesn't mean people sitting around on their sofas magically know more than the government's scientific and medical advisors.

A friend on FB talking about what she is going to be wearing to a fancy dress party next month " as they will have eased travel restrictions by then". So many people who seem to think that they just need to stay at home for a few weeks and then everything will be magically back to normal.

I doubt the NHS could cope better in summer. I think it's possibly a worse time to get it than winter. Heatwaves are becoming more common. UK housing isn't built to cope with hot weather, our hospitals included. Last summer there was a huge increase in hospital admissions for heat related illnesses.

Why do we have to wait until the vaccine? There are drug trials going on right now. Some are at an advanced stage. Doctors are already using some of these drugs on patients. We could have an effective treatment far sooner than a vaccine.

CheriLittlebottom

Oh, is it crap, duchess? I hadn't realised. Ta for the insight. I though it was all fine. “

Apologies, Cheri, my comment wasn’t at all clear.
I didn’t mean the situation was crap. I meant your idea of an artificial peak was.

BBC News - Coronavirus: How to understand the death toll
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

Bottom half of this article seems to be saying pretty much the same as a lot of us on this thread.

The tipping point is a 6.4% decline in the economy.
Predicted decline in the economy ....

Summer traditionally has far fewer hospital admissions than winter for flu etc so better to spread out cases through the year rather than wait til winter when we will also have flu and regular pneumonia

Vaccine - manufacturing will be a huge global issue even if one is developed soon. Scientists are saying end of year and even then it will be limited to most vulnerable. You can’t produce a vaccine for 60 mil people quickly - we don’t have the chemicals, equipment etc

We don’t have enough tests due to not enough chemicals - which mostly we buy from China.

Sorry to be gloomy but we can’t all wait for a vaccine.

That’s a v useful article Cheri thank you