(paywall) Inside No 10 How Boris Johnson changed his priorities: save lives first, and then salvage the economy
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-ten-days-that-shook-britain-and-changed-the-nation-for-ever-spz6sc9vb
The meeting that will change British society for a generation took place on the evening of Thursday, March 12.
That was when the strategic advisory group of experts (SAGE in Whitehall parlance),
the government’s committee of scientists and medics,
gathered to examine modelling from experts at Imperial College London and other institutions.
The results were shattering.
A week earlier, councils had been warned to expect about 100,000 deaths from Covid-19.
Now Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, realised the estimates were wrong.
“Unmitigated, the death number was 510,000,”
a senior figure said.
“Mitigated we were told it was going to be 250,000.
Once you see a figure of take no further action and a quarter of a million people die, the question you ask is,
‘What action?’”
Another insider said:
“There was a collision between the science and reality.”
......
Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s senior aide,
became convinced that Britain would be better able to resist a lethal second wave of the disease next winter
if Whitty’s prediction that 60% to 80% of the population became infected was right and the UK developed “herd immunity”.
At a private engagement at the end of February, Cummings outlined the government’s strategy.
Those present say it was “herd immunity, protect the economy and if that means some pensioners die, too bad”.
At the Sage meeting on March 12, a moment now dubbed the “Domoscene conversion”,
Cummings changed his mind.
In this “penny-drop moment”, he realised he had helped set a course for catastrophe.
Until this point, the rise in British infections had been below the European average.
Now they were above it and on course to emulate Italy, where the picture was bleak.
A minister said:
“Seeing what was happening in Italy was the galvanising force across government.”
By Friday, March 13, Cummings had become the most outspoken advocate of a tough crackdown.
“Dominic himself had a conversion,”
a senior Tory said.
“He’s gone from ‘herd immunity and let the old people die’,
to
‘let’s shut down the country and the economy.’”
Cummings had a “meeting of minds” with Matt Hancock, the health secretary,
who wanted stronger action to prevent NHS hospitals being swamped.
.......
Johnson had also been queasy about the previous original approach.
“Boris hated the language of ‘herd immunity’ because it implied that it was OK for people to die,”
a senior source said.
“Matt hated the language because it implied we had given up.
You’ve got to fight.”
.....
But when Johnson gathered his key advisers in the cabinet room at 9.15am last Saturday
there was unanimity.
Whitty and Vallance explained that Britain had been four weeks behind Italy “and now we are closer”.
The two experts, together with Hancock and Cummings, all delivered to Johnson one message:
“Now is the moment to act.”
The prime minister agreed:
“We must work around the clock and take all necessary measures.”
One of those present said:
“The mood in the room was astonishing.
You could tell that something very significant had shifted.”
.....
Whitty and Vallance began their own press conferences at the end of the week amid concern that some of Johnson’s pronouncements
-
including a claim that they could “turn the tide” within 12 weeks -
were not grounded in evidence.
“Some of the experts are appalled by some of his claims,” a Whitehall source said.
.....
Another senior Tory said: “Boris is shellshocked.”
......
“Boris and his team are absolutely terrified because it will not be the NHS by end of this,”
a Whitehall source said.
“It will be the* corona health service and will just be there to pump oxygen into patients.”*