How long do you think we can tolerate this lockdown?

[TeethingAgain]

I know it's necessary and for thy e greater good, but how long do you think society will tolerate it before (more) people start flouting the rules? Are there psychologists who the government are consulting about how long humans can be expected to live like this? I know people say we are just being asked to sit on our sofas but that's a very simplistic way of looking at a gargantuan change in lifestyle and social habits which are engrained within us.

I think people could manage 8-12 weeks and I think the toll on mental health will start to outweigh the physical health benefits.

@TheCountessatHotelCortez if all the deaths are being recorded as CV-19 deaths regardless of whether it’s actually the CV that killed them or something else but they just HAD CV at the same time, it will be very hard to accurately assess this afterwards without that bias that will already exist. The stark difference is every year elderly people die WITH flu but their deaths are not recorded as being caused by flu, but the opposite is happening here. We’re not going to get a clear picture and it’s fuelling the panic - along with the posters who say ‘they’ll stay home until there’s no chance of death’ which is simply not possible!

That's really sad about all those plants and businesses

For those of us running businesses we need an end date or we can't plan. This indefinite lockdown is a nightmare because we don't know if we should be shutting up shop or trying to muddle through. I understand it's early days and it's incredibly difficult to know what will happen but in the next few weeks we desperately need more of a long term plan. The idea that we can just do this "for however long it takes" only works for people who actually have money coming into their bank accounts and not just going out.

We are quite privileged, DH able to work from home and he is the main earner, so I’m free to manage homeschooling the kids. We only have a tiny outside space but out house is quite big so we can cope. We’ve also previously lived away from family and practiced being quite isolated when we had an ill premature baby. It’s not ideal, but we could manage it for six months or more if we have to.

I appreciate that it will be far more difficult for others to keep it up though. I’m not particularly sympathetic to people just being bored - so what? But for people with difficult home situations, inadequate housing or no income during lockdown, I can understand that they can only keep it up so long. I don’t know what the solution is, because how do we balance that with minimising deaths and NHS overwhelm?

For those of us running businesses we need an end date or we can't plan. This indefinite lockdown is a nightmare because we don't know if we should be shutting up shop or trying to muddle through.

This is where I'm at also, no way can I keep going for 6 months under lockdown, hopefully it won't come to that, even 3 months is going to be a massive stretch for my business.

We really don't know the death rate, here is an interesting article in the FT www.ft.com/content/f3796baf-e4f0-4862-8887-d09c7f706553

Fully entitled to hold both separate thoughts of “it’s needed to reduce deaths” and “bloody hell I hate this” - the two are not mutually exclusive.

I’ll keep going as long as is required - even though I’m hating it and it’s decimating my mental health - I’m on survival and basic function mode versus quality of life mode. I pray the weather stays shit though because the combination of lockdown with my arsehole neighbour being antisocial till the small hours in his garden every day and night will absolutely break me completely.

I’m focusing on the initial three weeks for now. By then my student loan will be heading on coming through and I’m considering a new laptop that doesn’t weigh a tonne to use the money I’m saving on not campus commuting. That’s keeping me going at the moment - I can kill a good few weeks researching laptop reviews as a distraction.

If no lockdown had happened, if everyone had just carried on as normal, the chances are pretty high that it wouldn't have been any better. The rate of people falling ill and businesses closing and collapsing because they, their workers, their clients were ill, kids were ill, they were caring for people who were ill or dealing with deaths, it all would have caused massive financial issues. Hospitals would be completely overwhelmed, few people would be getting treatment, many would be dying at home. Services would be interrupted because the massive spread of sickness would take out those workers too.

Staying at home isn't just to protect people you personally don't perceive as important, it's to slow the speed of the spread. So that services continue, so that we don't end up living potentially in a plague disaster society (which Italy are seeing some of) where families have their dead in their houses waiting for collection, where the food delivery chain breaks down, where everyone's sick at once with lots of people dying who might have survived with access to treatment, and society grinds to a halt altogether.

The options of trying that aren't any more inviting than the options of international governments throwing billions at their populace to try and get the world through this without utter devastation, and trying to control the spread. It sucks to have no control, no time limit but nobody knows how long this will take . Nobody knows. Personal inconvenience isn't at the moment the biggest issue.

if we are to have a functioning society then it has to be done. Yes, it varies from 'no fun' to 'seriously shit' depending on your personal circumstances but there is no choice.

as we've seen (ref person who can't go to the park due to people who didn't listen) asking for common sense didn't work. It has to be enforced.

Michelleoftheresistance I agree that given what we do know lockdown is what needs happen, but don't dismiss peoples concerns as personal inconvenience. Loosing your livelihood, home etc are more than personal inconvenience especially as we are expecting a massive worldwide recession so finding a new job after all this is likely to be very hard.

@BuffaloCauliflower I wonder why it is being recorded this way?

Personal inconvenience
Having no money to buy food or pay the electric bill is rather more than inconvenient
When the bank account is empty it stays that way.

@TheCountessatHotelCortez

I found this article reasonably illuminating on the data, but ultimately each country is making its own different choices on what to record, who to test etc. Makes it very hard to extrapolate in practice.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

It is lives v. lives. If the lockdown lasts 6 months, I’m pretty sure my 80 year old father would rather have taken his chances with a 90% chance of survival and going to grandchild’s wedding, continued to see friends and family rather than losing six months of healthy lifespan living alone, with a deterioration in physical and mental health and seeing no one other than by Skype.

The science behind the lockdown is also highly uncertain. I just read the latest Imperial paper and they have made clear that they are making up the R0 number and that lockdown may not reduce it below 1. That is nuts to me as everyone I know is seeing no one other than who they live with, so it should collapse to close to zero very quickly, which would mean negligible new deaths in a month’s time. We can then lift the lockdown, but keep some restrictions and vigilance

@BuffaloCauliflower that was a very interesting read and pretty much along the lines of what I was saying? It really makes you question if we really have all the facts

@Eyewhisker I reckon the same is true of my MIL, who is in her mid 70s. She had lots of grandchildren and normally looks after SIL’s a lot as she lives nearby. She’s always out and about, doing craft fairs and stuff like that. Right now her only company is FIL who we think is in the early stages of dementia as he keeps accusing her of stealing money from him (she obviously isn’t). It breaks my heart, she’s got no respite or freedom.

It cannot go on for too long, quite frankly there would be no business left to open up if it went on for much longer than 2 months.

The gleeful dire predictions of lockdown until September or later are obvious bollocks to anyone with a brain in their head.

There's some scarily ignorant views on here. Where I work we are not routinely putting people with significant co-morbidity down as COVID-19, unless their death was accelerated due to the virus. Also, several London Trusts have noticed official figures released by the government are sometimes only a third of the numbers given to them by the hospitals (they explain this as a time lag). The figures are NOT reducing, it is rampant in most local hospitals and not just in the originally designated COVID-19 wards.

Yes, the figures are skewed, but look at the figures coming out today off the deaths that occurred outside hospital - showing up to 25% on top of the existing figures. And these are just the figures from before lockdown began, so people who would have contracted the virus in early March.

We are seeing young people and co-morbidity is being used as a real umbrella term eg, 30/40 years old but a smoker/ obese/ slightly high blood pressure - listed under those with a co-morbidity, despite the fact they could easily have lived another 45 plus years if they hadn't caught the virus.

Dr's and nurses are working under awful conditions and they are dying due to a lack of PPE. Anyone who decides to put them under even more pressure and risk by flouting the rules, no matter what their circumstances, is fucking selfish in the extreme.

The gleeful dire predictions of lockdown until September or later are obvious bollocks to anyone with a brain in their head

So why are NHS workers and schools being briefed for this scenario/ October then? You're the one with the brain so you tell me...

I admit I'm struggling now , but I'm m trying to stay positive now it's week 2 but I honestly can't go on for weeks or months .
I personally don't think the government can afford to pay 80% of everyone's wages for more than 3 months . The economy is loosing billions already so no I don't think the lockdown will last too long , social distancing yes and it will be some time before schools will be open and it will be many months before any kind of mass gatherings will be allowed.
My son has Sen and he's used to routine, he's non verbal so can't ask what's going on or understand me . He keeps going upstairs looking for his school uniform to show me that he wants to go to school , it makes me sad and sad for him too .

I’m ok ish but I worry far more about teens and kids who need space and some freedom. Not wveryone has a garden or tech or parents they get on with. I think 3-4 weeks will be awful for many kids sadly.

@starlightgazers the lack of PPE for NHS staff is a scandal I completely agree. But as a healthcare professional surely you can see that putting people under house arrest with potentially no money and no company for 6 months is going to cause serious issues?

I know for a fact my grandma would have rather died of coronavirus at home than be locked up in the house alone for 6 months. We're not talking about "flouting the rules" we're talking about the lesser of two evils.

One question - all those saying how unbearable life is after 10 days of lockdown - how the fuck would you have coped if you or your OH/DC's had been called up for active service during one of the world wars? I'm not saying this is easy and without sacrifice but a bit of perspective and resilience is needed...

I'm not sure which NHS Worker has been briefed to expect pretty much all business to be closed until September, but they either misunderstood, are lying, or need a day off.

But as a healthcare professional surely you can see that putting people under house arrest with potentially no money and no company for 6 months is going to cause serious issues?

Yes - but I am also seeing the alternative and it's not pretty...I doubt the people saying they would 'take their chances' would not if they had seen some of the things we have seen. Or some of the age groups we are seeing.

starlight
If forces are called up to serve that does not stop the rest of the family working and going out doors.

The lack of PPE in the NHS and the fact that there are 80,000 staff vacancies in the NHS and no social care beds for the elderly without COVID
is entirely down to Tory Austerity
so do not blame us for being frustrated when we are unable to earn.

And as PP's have said - mass illness and death would also tank the economy and small businesses. It would also exacerbate MH issues and abuse, possibly for generations.

If there was an 'easy option' here it would have been to contain it. That ship sailed long ago so here we are. No government would be taking all these risks for the fun of it.