Worried About Coronavirus- thread 35

[TheStarryNight]

New thread

The number of new cases in Italy is continuing to fall.

• Thursday: 6,153 new
• Friday: 5,959 new
• Saturday: 5,974 new
• Sunday: 5,217 new
• Monday: 4,050 new

I've screenshot that post to show DP, she keeps gaining weight despite eating perfectly reasonable amounts of food. Very interesting!

I've posted this on the Westminstender thread but thought you'd like it too. Made me laugh.

www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

New imperial modelling. They predict the percentage of population infected already in european countries - 2.7% for uk and upto 10% for italy. Their predictions on deaths in europe are spookily accurate.

According to the Telegraph our daily cases have gone down for 3 days in a row.

Surely that's a bit of good news out there

Flowerycurtain: but if the testing criteria changes as capacity ramps up it is not comparing like with like? Eg if previously it was those very ill in ICU and now includes frontline staff (at risk but possibly lower % would expect to be positive?).

I’m just wondering - I don’t know. I hope you are right.

2.7% so that nasty virus I had from 9th March til now was very probably not 'it'. Disappointing :(

2.7% is still ALOT of people

@How2Help true but I just thought it was a glimmer of hope!!

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/century-old-vaccine-investigated-as-a-weapon-against-coronavirus

This is very interesting.

It's widely available vaccine, safe and well tested.

Rate of hospital /ICU admissions in Italy also showing signs of improving:
mobile.twitter.com/FerdiGiugliano/status/1244668589946404877

@ofwarren thanks for checking in. I hope your breathing doesn't deteriorate as you are missed on the thread. Another one missed is @GPwife2411. Maybe I've missed recent threads as trying to juggle work and the thread but I hope all is well with you too.

pmk

That looks suspiciously like Italy has indeed peaked.

Come on Spain. You next.

Then us.

www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-30/italy-risks-losing-grip-in-south-with-fears-of-looting-and-riots?__twitter_impression=true
Italy Risks Losing Grip in South With Fear of Looting, Riots

As Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte fights to hold Italian society together through a crippling nationwide lockdown, the depressed south is turning into a powder keg.

Police have been deployed on the streets of Sicily’s capital, Palermo, amid reports gangs are using social media to plot attacks on stores. A bankrupt ferry company halted service to the island, including vital supplies of food and medicines. As the state creaks under the strain of the coronavirus pandemic, officials worry the mafia may be preparing to step in.

And

Police have been stationed outside supermarkets in Palermo after at least one group of angry residents refused to pay for their purchases. The private Facebook group National Revolution, which has about 2,600 members, is urging others to stage such raids, according to newspaper la Repubblica. Other social media outlets, including WhatsApp chats, are being monitored, the newspaper said

The UK death toll from coronavirus is likely to be far larger than that shown by official figures, experts have said.

Until now, daily figures – which reveal 1,415 UK deaths so far – have only counted those in hospital, and show a growing time lag approaching three weeks in some cases.

On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics will release data for England and Wales which should include any death linked by doctors to coronavirus, regardless of where the person died.

Officials are braced for an increase in deaths, but expect a far sharper rise in the coming weeks because even Tuesday's figures have a time lag of 11 days from the point a death is officially registered...

... Every day, NHS England releases figures showing the number of new deaths and the total number of confirmed deaths reported. But a growing time lag reporting such cases means the new data from the NHS included deaths that date back to March 13.”

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/britains-coronavirus-death-toll-bigger-official-figures-show/

"Social distancing measures are working". He meant people are keeping their distance. I wouldn't get too excited yet, because he didn't say they are having an effect on infection and death rates.

Who's good at number crunching?

Imperial suspects that 2.7% population have it in the UK with 1400 deaths so at 80% of population that's 41,000 deaths which seems too low?

Maybe because a lot of those 2.7% are still mild and might not recover?

Also if we are doubling every 3-4 days and 22,000 have tested positive ( mainly because of hospital admissions) then that's possibly 3 million needing hospital in three weeks of 3 day doubling.

Is that right?

Prof Witty said around a week or two ago that 80% of the population will be infected and 1% of that 80% would likely die. So that's 550,000 deaths.

So all I can think is that is that is just the first peak? And we peak again as we come out of lockdown? I know it's a skewed belief curve to the right post peak but I can tally up these figures.

If Italy is near 10% of population infected and it is peaking now, that is going to be one very slow and prolonged decline unless it peaks again to reach that magic 60-80% herd immunity.

Re: the numbers, I can't speak for other areas but in my region the labs are behind on testing as they do not have sufficient testing kit/reagents to test all of the hospital suspected cases. Even if a proportion of these came back positive the numbers would jump. We are also seeing a backlog in postmortem testing as the skilled mortuary capacity is insufficient for the numbers of tests required.

@BeyondMymymymyCorona I've screenshot that post to show DP, she keeps gaining weight despite eating perfectly reasonable amounts of food. Very interesting!

Your DP may have hypothyroidism, which is very common, especially amongst women. It very often leads to weight gain no matter how little someone eats. It's a slowly-developing disease so easy to miss.

That's the same story from Sky over the weekend and tbf, there are often armed guards outside shops/supermarkets in dodgy areas.
We've heard nothing about any of this on national news beyond the couple of items (which normally wouldn't make the news) of people stealing stuff.
I'd hesitantly say that whether we like to admit it or not, that's how some people live in Sicily, Naples area etc. It's got very little to do with Corona virus in the same way the looters pinching the TVs in 2011 had very little to do with the man who was shot.

My ex is nursing on covid wards and says that in one morning on one ward they had 5 deaths, and that most wards in the hospital have been designated as covid wards, and the hospital is running short on body bags. But officially one new death was reported for that day in that town. My theory is that now the NHS is ready plus Hospital Nightingale etc is up and ready, the government is massaging the figures down to indicate that the lockdown is working, so that the lockdown can be removed and the economy be restarted. They will let the virus rip.

Italy nationally is due to peak next week (in terms of total infections) total deaths peak will come a week or so after.
It does look like DAILY peak infections have peaked, which is what should be happening if you think national lockdown was 3 weeks ago today.