If CV turns out to be less deadly than flu...

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

do you think you will still feel the restrictions were worth it?

Just asking out of curiosity really.

If the number killed by coronavirus with all these restrictions and controls is less than the number killed by seasonal flu in an average year, that doesn't mean the controls weren't needed!

And seasonal flu deaths are spread out over the winter. Covid-19 deaths are expected to be compressed into a short space of time.

if there is no immunity then the measures are literally pointless

Except they mean there are fewer people in hospital at a time, so we can treat them all.

It's not only about death either. There is the suggestion that some people who have recovered will suffer long term lung damage.

So, just out of curiosity again, are the isolation-related deaths not a problem? Do we include those in the death rate or ignore them?

OP, I don't think it's worth it even if CV is deadlier than flu.

It isn't worth it in spades if it's less so.

@TheDailyCarbuncle you do know what these measures are for dont you. Its about making sure that the health system can cope - all of this is to do with how infectious it is (which as it happens is seen as a fact). Indeed the fact it we may underestimate the asymptomatic cases so it may well be more.

At the moment both me and my DD have signs of having it (cough/sore eyes) but we are low risk and at the moment dont seem to find it worse than a cold. These restrictions are around to ensure we dont spread it

If it was no worse than the flu, our hospitals would be able to cope.... Italy and Spain aren’t coping despite a lockdown dampening the continual rise. China on managed because it built massive new hospitals in days whilst imposing near total lockdown. Do you think they did that for fun?

When the suicides, deaths from other illnesses, abuse cases, job losses and consequent lowering of living standards and all that come out fully, people will still feel ok about it all

Yes, because the large chunk we would have lost to the virus otherwise would have been worse.

If there's no immunity @MintyMabel, then once you get treated you can go away and get infected again, so treatment is pointless.

When the suicides, deaths from other illnesses, abuse cases, job losses and consequent lowering of living standards and all that come out fully, people will still feel ok about it all

OP, this is so very important. It can't be said often enough that by preventing some deaths, this lockdown is bringing about others.

So the children who suffer neglect and abuse during isolation are a worthwhile sacrifice @starlightgazers?

There’s is a balancing act. Even the U.K. govt is aware of this and have said it as a reason not to bring in isolation too early.

if there is no immunity then the measures are literally pointless

Firstly, no it’s not pointless as it means millions (literally!) don’t require hospitalisation at once, utterly sinking the NHS; and secondly, the current evidence is that it is similar to other viruses and that it does confer immunity - not 100% in 100% of people - but significant immunity.

Whether you think it's worth it may also depend on whether your job disappears, your house is repossessed etc. Shielding the most vulnerable is essential, the jury is out on the wider population, 80% of those in Italy who died were life limited already, source: BBC. There's tragic circumstances, nobody is downplaying the individual losses, it's whether a policy is right for a county that is questionable. Time will tell if they got it right

We don't know if there is immunity or not yet. Covid-19 is still a work in progress. There is some evidence of a small number of people in China re-acquiring the virus, but the evidence so far is inconclusive.

I keep having wobbles about being in lockdown but if it saves my grandparents and even myself then so be it.
I'm hoping in a few weeks or months whatever time we can look back and say well glad that's over with feel silly now for worrying and staying in.
But right now the way things are being locked down and distant it has to be done we don't know what would happen if we just went back to normal life now the nhs would just be so fucked.
Washing our hands and singing happy birthday didn't work, staying at home and just being apart might work and help people get treated if they need to be.
Maybe the final death rate will be tiny maybe it will be huge I don't know.
I hate staying in I've got three kids who are driving me nuts atm but it is what it is.
Mass testing would be nice but it's just not happening atm

What's more, a lot of deaths by suicide as a result of isolation, job loss, fear, abuse and so on will be the deaths of younger people.

I'd also like to know how many of the people who have "died of Covid 19" have actually died of this. The news reports mostly say: "X died after having tested positive for CV". That, however, doesn't mean that CV actually killed them.

If it turns out not to be as dangerous as was first thought - perhaps that will be because we have taken action to prevent people from catching it?

And maybe, in a country where the health service hadn't been cut to the bone, and there was enough trained staff and ICU equipment, it wouldn't be such a threat.

But we aren't. And it is.

And it is an unknown quantity - we don't know what will happen, if it will mutate, whether there are particular groups of people who are more susceptible etc., so we do what we think is best, and hope.

Death rate on the Princess cruise ship quarantined off Japan was 1% and the people were older than the general population.

Even if you don’t believe the -%’s can you imagine the horror of being in a 4000 bed make shift hospital with people dying around you? Even if it isn’t as deadly as stats show it still is killing people. I don’t care about %’s and whether the % meant restrictions were worth while, I care about everyone’s loved ones coming through this alive

@starlightgazers the reinfection in China has pretty much been seen now as test issues and the belief is immunity exists for a few months at least its unknown beyond thay

In context then. My DS has a congenital heart condition. He has a flu jab every year. If he's lucky and they've predicted correctly, he's protected to a degree from flu. He's not protected against Covid 19 in any way, shape or form at the moment. The only thing we can hope for is, when he finally gets it (because we know we probably all will at some stage) he's either a) in a shorter queue for help - i.e. the curve has flattened for the NHS or b) there's a vaccine available and he gets it in a less destructive way.

DH is in a job that is likely to be badly impacted by this lockdown.

Is it worth it from my point of view? Yes, because it's my son. DH's job is a worry but our son comes above everything in our view. Is it worth it from your point of view? Probably not because he's not your son. And that's fine. I wouldn't like to see anyone suffering but I'm not worried about those people - I don't know them. So it's a daft question to ask as it depends on your circumstances. You'll only get an answer based on an individual's family or health or work or the savings they have to boost them through the bad times (or not).

And comparing it to a natural disaster or nuclear disaster is like oranges to apples. We couldn't do much about something that happens and is over fast. We, as a family, have been in a earthquake. No one saw it coming. It was dealt with as best it could be on the day (and weeks to follow). Money was released by the government, medical facilities were set up as field hospitals. It was dealt with as best it could be with what was available at the time. This, on the other hand, is a disease that the medical people THINK can be controlled to a smaller or larger extent by putting things in place. Could things have been put in place earlier? Yes, definitely. It was obvious from China how this would pan out so stockpiles of equipment could have been made, companies could have put work from home in place earlier. But none of those things could be done for a natural disaster as there's no thinking time.

Are you ok OP in yourself? I mean it's been just over a week. I've written off the rest of the year for this shit.

We can't allow the population get this thing all at once. Our resources can't cope. Do you want life just to carry on as normal so people don't get depressed?

@DaisyDreaming are you aware that this virus will still be around in 6 months time? And a year's time? That you and your family could still get it, even if you follow every single rule of lockdown?

Of course it will still be worth it, for the sole fact that the measures are there to protect the NHS from becoming overwhelmed at this point in time. If we didn’t implement the measures, regardless of the actual death rate, the NHS wouldn’t be able to cope.