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Neil Ferguson should be held accountable

155 replies

Mumlove5 · 30/03/2020 10:03

... for causing mass hysteria and panic with his grossly overestimated pessimistic model. The man that caused the 2020 global economic collapse over a death rate similar to that of a severe seasonal flu.

I don’t read the DM much but this article struck a cord.
www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

“ Crucially, those who began by claiming that we faced half a million deaths from the coronavirus in this country have now greatly lowered their estimate. Professor Neil Ferguson was one of those largely responsible for the original panic. He or others from Imperial college have twice revised his terrifying prophecy, first to fewer than 20,000 and then on Friday to 5,700.

He says intensive care units will probably cope. And he conceded a point made by critics of the panic policy – that two-thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months would most likely have died this year from other causes.

He tried to claim that the shutdown of the country had led to this violent backtrack, claiming that it was ‘social distancing strategies’ which had brought about his amazing climbdown. How could he possibly know either that this had happened, or that it would happen, or that there was any connection between the two?

It is very hard to see by what means he could know any of these things. Could he have softened his stance because of the publication early last week of a rival view, from distinguished scientists at Oxford University, led by Sunetra Gupta, Professor of theoretical epidemiology? It suggests that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment.

The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. Millions may already have had it.

This report is being unfairly sneered at by Government toadies, but we shall see. It seems unlikely that Oxford University would have bungled their work.

And it is obvious that a few days of raggedly enforced house arrest could not have made so much real difference. Even those who believe in these shutdowns think they take two weeks to have any effect.”

www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

en.globes.co.il/en/article-lockdown-lunacy-1001322696

OP posts:
SorrelBlackbeak · 30/03/2020 11:24

Whether or not the modelling is correct, if we end up like Italy with 10000 people dying in a month and thousands more in intensive care, difficult questions will be asked of the government as to why people, especially elderly, conservative voting people who are more likely to read the Daily Mail, are dying untreated in hospital corridors by the 1000 in a short space of time.

The political fallout would be catastrophic. Their government's only option for self preservation is to limit the spread. We'll know in a month whether they were right to do so.

AutumnRose1 · 30/03/2020 11:24

Well, the government didn’t have to listen to him.

I can’t believe this is happening under Tories

buttermilkwaffles · 30/03/2020 11:25

This tweet clearly shows that Hitchens doesn't know what he is talking about as it a false claim:

Neil Ferguson should be held accountable
Tonyaster · 30/03/2020 11:25

OP you are spreading disinformation

saying something the mumsnet stasi don't agree with

buttermilkwaffles · 30/03/2020 11:25

Also worth reading the whole thread here :
mobile.twitter.com/sundersays/status/1244196933729759233

EasterElf · 30/03/2020 11:27

It’s easy to say he was wrong with hindsight but you have to move forwards through life, not backwards! He didn’t know then what we know now, and even now we don’t know for sure that what we think is right. This is a changing situation and everybody is just doing what they can with the information available to them.

SorrelBlackbeak · 30/03/2020 11:28

If you don't believe in it @Tonyaster because it's just like flu, you could volunteer in a hospital. After all, it's so mild, you wouldn't mind going around without PPE.

pointythings · 30/03/2020 11:29

Not questioning the information you read = thick. You could word it more kindly, but in these times critical thinking skills are incredibly important.

I don't think OP has an agenda, I don't do conspiracy theories. I do accept that there are a lot of dodgy sites out there though.

Demanding to see evidence isn't bullying. Again, a firm but polite tone would be preferable.

It still isn't bullying to call out disinformation.

NoMorePoliticsPlease · 30/03/2020 11:29

Why is all this bothering you? We have to prepare for the worst, we ar nowhere near knowing exactly how bad it will be. I am weary of calls to make people accountable. Has anyone ever done it to you? Everyone, or most are doing their best with poor support from those who sitting on the sidelines

GCAcademic · 30/03/2020 11:30

aggressively demanding to see her "methodology" is bullying.

There was nothing aggressive about it. I don’t give weight to opinions simply on the basis of someone having one. Opinions are only worth taking seriously if based on fact and logic. Otherwise they are just feelings or instincts. Which have their place, of course, but not in matters of scientific import.

Longwhiskers14 · 30/03/2020 11:30

On Neil Ferguson personally: the one thing I do find troubling is his reluctance to release his thousands of lines of undocumented 13+ year old C code (as he put it). I don't have a problem with Microsoft 'refactoring' it to make the model more useable. But in basic interests of openness and transparency, doesn't the original code (which produced the model which led to the government policy) need to be released too? I'm in a different academic field and was surprised that releasing code for peer review ALONGSIDE the papers it informs isn't common practice!

Scapegoating NF as in individual is wrong because so many other factors are at play in this crisis and so many other experts are involved in the decision making at Govt level. But I too was surprised when I read over the weekend in his Sunday Times interview that his code has never been peer-tested and he's never even written it down, it just exists in his head! I mean, how can that be good practice?!

Tonyaster · 30/03/2020 11:31

SorrelBlackbeak pretty sure I've had it actually, just waiting for the antibody tests!

BoreOfWhabylon · 30/03/2020 11:31

"We need people to follow expert medical advice and stay at home, protect the NHS and save lives.
"It is vital that this message hits home and that misinformation and disinformation which undermines it is knocked down quickly."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52086284

Longwhiskers14 · 30/03/2020 11:31

I think in the light of the above, it's no wonder people are starting to question whether he's got it wrong.

Tonyaster · 30/03/2020 11:32

I don’t give weight to opinions simply on the basis of someone having one

That makes you sound incredibly hard work 😂

titchy · 30/03/2020 11:33

I don’t know who Hitchens is

Your OP linked to his article Hmm

Random18 · 30/03/2020 11:35

Whilst I wouldn't normally link the daily Mail since it's a vile paper..........

But one hand we have a comment peoiecenfrom Hitchens saying it's all unnecessary and then another article like this.

It is a paper which uses its platform to control and manipulate people.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8165717/Locals-Wuhan-believe-42-000-people-died-coronavirus.html

Embracelife · 30/03/2020 11:37

rationalwiki.org/wiki/Peter_Hitchens

Here you go op
Peter Hitchens is known for outspoken views and ranting
He is not an expert.

TheReelSlimShady · 30/03/2020 11:38

Accountable for what? Doing his job?

It's not his fault if you don't have the ability to understand the modelling details and caveats.

timeisnotaline · 30/03/2020 11:44

Of course you can ask questions about the model. But if it becomes clear you really can’t tell the difference between the model and an odd sock, you can’t expect people to spend much time on them.

Embracelife · 30/03/2020 11:44

Everyone will be happy if nhs nightingale is never used. Let s see in 10 days time.....then see what PH says.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/03/2020 11:45

"I can’t believe this is happening under Tories "

In the end, even a Tory government care more about saving tens / hundreds of thousands of lives than money

It shocks some people - but what is maybe more shocking is that includes many who voted for them, assuming otherwise

Oakmaiden · 30/03/2020 11:45

Well, I reckon we will be at 5700 in a week's time - so I guess we will see...

BilboBercow · 30/03/2020 11:58

OP for you to start a thread quoting a source in your op which backs up your opinion, then to freely admit you have no idea who the writer of that source is , shows a massive lack of critical thinking.

Eyewhisker · 30/03/2020 11:58

The OP is being given an unnecessarily hard time here.

Neil Ferguson predicted that 150,000 would die from BSE. Less than 200 actually did.

www.newscientist.com/article/dn1772-vcjd-deaths-will-rise-if-uk-sheep-have-bse/

It is right that he is questioned. Not releasing his model is troubling. I work with forecasting models and any model is peer reviewed a few times and then published. This is essential for accountability. ‘All in my head’ is simply bad practice.

I would be willing to bet that Sweden will have similar per capita deaths to the UK and that this lockdown and destruction of people’s jobs and livelihoods was unnecessary, at least for anything more than a 2 week period to slow the spread and give healthcare a chance to cope.