Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Neil Ferguson should be held accountable

155 replies

Mumlove5 · 30/03/2020 10:03

... for causing mass hysteria and panic with his grossly overestimated pessimistic model. The man that caused the 2020 global economic collapse over a death rate similar to that of a severe seasonal flu.

I don’t read the DM much but this article struck a cord.
www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

“ Crucially, those who began by claiming that we faced half a million deaths from the coronavirus in this country have now greatly lowered their estimate. Professor Neil Ferguson was one of those largely responsible for the original panic. He or others from Imperial college have twice revised his terrifying prophecy, first to fewer than 20,000 and then on Friday to 5,700.

He says intensive care units will probably cope. And he conceded a point made by critics of the panic policy – that two-thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months would most likely have died this year from other causes.

He tried to claim that the shutdown of the country had led to this violent backtrack, claiming that it was ‘social distancing strategies’ which had brought about his amazing climbdown. How could he possibly know either that this had happened, or that it would happen, or that there was any connection between the two?

It is very hard to see by what means he could know any of these things. Could he have softened his stance because of the publication early last week of a rival view, from distinguished scientists at Oxford University, led by Sunetra Gupta, Professor of theoretical epidemiology? It suggests that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment.

The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. Millions may already have had it.

This report is being unfairly sneered at by Government toadies, but we shall see. It seems unlikely that Oxford University would have bungled their work.

And it is obvious that a few days of raggedly enforced house arrest could not have made so much real difference. Even those who believe in these shutdowns think they take two weeks to have any effect.”

www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

en.globes.co.il/en/article-lockdown-lunacy-1001322696

OP posts:
Perch · 30/03/2020 10:06

Fgs go away.

MsJaneAusten · 30/03/2020 10:09

He’s revised it up again now. Says it was based on Chinese data, which would seem to be hugely inaccurate.

PertEllaTitsahoy · 30/03/2020 10:09

Nah. As long as this guy came to his conclusions honestly then I cant see why he should be scapegoated.

Mumlove5 · 30/03/2020 10:09

We need other models and arguments. The oxford model may be overly optimistic it at least its something!

OP posts:
Bufferingkisses · 30/03/2020 10:10

Grin if you are finding your position is supported be the DM you should definitely take a second or third look at what you are saying

TeddyIsaHe · 30/03/2020 10:10

They based their initial finding on China, which as we all know is probably total bollocks.

This thing changes by the hour, there’s no point getting pissed off at data from weeks ago.

esjee · 30/03/2020 10:11

This is full of baseless assumptions. And the guy who said 5700 has already backpedalled on that. Why do you believe one person's nonsense article, when we don't, and he doesn't , yet have full facts? There's absolutely no confirmation that 'millions have already had it'!

Standrewsschool · 30/03/2020 10:11

Better to over-estimate and prepare for worse case scenario, then be under prepared.

He was working with the knowledge we had at the time.

Mumlove5 · 30/03/2020 10:11

Pissed off at data from weeks ago?
He is one of the main reasons why we’re in this mess.

OP posts:
PertEllaTitsahoy · 30/03/2020 10:12

The oxford model may be overly optimistic it at least its something!

So, when thousand more people die than predicted, because they were optimistic and didnt adhere to lockdown and social distancing, will there be articles blaming them too?

Xiaoxiong · 30/03/2020 10:12

How could he possibly know either that this had happened, or that it would happen, or that there was any connection between the two?

Maybe because that is what the entire world is doing, and seeing that it's starting to work?

Mumlove5 · 30/03/2020 10:13

He made huge mistakes before with the 2001 BSE, which cost billions, and with the swine flu in 2009.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/neil-ferguson-scientist-convinced-boris-johnson-uk-coronavirus-lockdown-criticised/

People are catching on and he needs to be questioned.

OP posts:
Bluntness100 · 30/03/2020 10:13

Oh this is awful op. That modelling was not just done by him, it was done by a team of scientists based on the governments request, they wished to know reasonable worst case so they could prepare for it.

This was the right thing to do. They were faced with the unknown. They needed to prepare for how bad it could get, and they then needed to work to make sure we didn’t get there. Anything else would have been unacceptable at that time.

Really I’d ask for this to be deleted.

whatswithtodaytoday · 30/03/2020 10:14

No, a global pandemic of a very contagious virus is why we're in this mess. Have you not seen what's happened in Italy? We can at least trust their data, if not China.

ChipotleBlessing · 30/03/2020 10:14

500k is still true, if we do nothing. That has not changed. The 5700 prediction has already been disproved. If you don’t understand how modelling works, don’t try and start witch-hunts against people who do.

Duchessofblandings · 30/03/2020 10:15

I’m sure the Government would appreciate the benefit of your expertise, Mumlove5 😁

esjee · 30/03/2020 10:15

www.science20.com/robert_walker/covid19_does_not_transmit_like_simulated_flu_uks_policy_fact_checked_against_who_recommendations_and_scientific

This is a better take on the possible inaccuracies of the government's asshmptions and what they should be doing.

MigginsMrs · 30/03/2020 10:16

He does seem to change his mind quite a lot. I suppose like most other experts all he can do is his best on the information and in the current situation it may frequently change.

ChipotleBlessing · 30/03/2020 10:16

Also, it is a gross simplification to give him so much personal responsibility. There are 8 different universities with teams feeding models and analysis into government decision making. All of them know more than you or Peter Hitchens.

PertEllaTitsahoy · 30/03/2020 10:17

Seems to me like the government are trying to point the finger at a single individual to mitigate their response to this.

Given his supposed track record you have to question why they continued to use him.

Unless...

Mumlove5 · 30/03/2020 10:18

@Bluntness100

What, we can’t ask questions about his model? Is Imperial College the one and only?

I didn’t realize he’s a god. I guess no one is allowed to question him.

OP posts:
JustVisiting9 · 30/03/2020 10:19

I fear this might end up like the Y2k bug.

We take significant and drastic action, and as a result there are fewer deaths than there would have otherwise been. Because there are fewer deaths, people claim the drastic action was pointless and unnecessary, not appreciating that the drastic action was the reason that there were fewer deaths.

I spend my professional life planning for things that might not happen, or taking actions to avoid bad things happening. Sometimes, I am told these plans and actions are a waste of time because bad things rarely happen. Is that the case? How many bad things would have happened without our plans and actions (nobody knows the answer to this).

I do hope the rate of deaths is at the lower end of the estimate - but if this was likely would the government really be building massive field hospitals, bringing retired NHS staff back into the service and so on?

mindutopia · 30/03/2020 10:20

OP, you don’t really seem to understand how modelling works and how policy making around modelling works.

Mumlove5 · 30/03/2020 10:21

@Bluntness100

Sorry, but silencing others with a different opinion and view is scary territory.

OP posts:
PertEllaTitsahoy · 30/03/2020 10:22

Blaming 1 man for single handedly causing a global collapse is not asking questions about how he came to his figures initially and if his methodology was sound 🤣

Swipe left for the next trending thread