I also think that the exercise cut will be the main thing that will happen as that does not affect the economy and is fairly easy to do.
I agree, but will it actually do much to cut infection rates? If people are adhering to the 2 metre rule when doing their exercise, then outdoor exercising has negligible risk. Coronavirus is not airborne, it can only be caught from droplet (so breathing in someone's just expelled sneeeze) or surface contamination. So keep 2 metres away and dont touch anything and it is virtually impossible to catch it.
It is public transport, people working and shopping where the risk is at (due to a greater likelihood of breaching the 2 metres, and inavoidable spread through surface contamination). Whilst exercise might be the easy option, if govt continue to "follow the science" I dont think it will be the one.
One adult, maximum once every 3 days for shopping and cutting out all non key worker employment that involves people leaving house would be far more effective.