Did UK introduce restrictions too early?

[Makeitgoaway]

Hear me out!

I don't think they planned to close schools when they did. I think the Welsh and Scotish governments forced their hand and they themselves were influenced by public opinion more than the science.

When I first heard "the plan" it sounded like there were terrible things to come but it made sense to me, as a way of controlling things as much as possible.

The public didn't like it and there was outrage that we didn't "lockdown" to protect ourselves, although "the public" also didn't behave in any sort of sensible manner to protect themselves as we saw last weekend.

So, measures were in force earlier than planned. The more restrictions there are and the earlier they are in place, the longer this thing will last. The restrictions don't protect "us", they protect the NHS. Most people will need to get it before this is over. Lockdown won't make it go away, just slow the rate of infection, meaning it takes longer to play out. While the NHS is coping, was there any need for the restrictions?

In Italy, it has taken 3 weeks for signs of social unrest to emerge. If that happens here we won't be even close to the peak at that stage. What happens then?

The other factor is the antibody test, no updates as yet?, but you could get people working again to keep economy going whilst rest stay at home.

Sorry 1000 dying means 1m have got it with a 0.1% death rate. Sorry am getting tired

But even if lots have mild symptoms, you would expect the % of people with symptoms testing positive to be much higher, surely?

@Lweji number of infected will stay low if we all self isolate. I am. Are you?

@SabineSchmetterling we are not testing people with symptoms here

No, as has been explained multiple times, you have to multiply by 10 again to account for the fact that you will have around 2-3 weeks worth of early-stage infections that have not got to the stage where they either die or get better. I don’t know how many more times it needs to be said.

Looks like Imperial (and thus the Government) are still using the 1% figure.

www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

We are testing people hospitalised with symptoms. If this were really as widespread as you are suggesting then a higher % of them would be testing positive.

Ok @SabineSchmetterling I hope you are wrong. I really do. I am tired. Has been a shit few days of DH nearly dying with this. I love you all. I hope my prediction is true (I think it is as I know a lot of people who had had this and not tested). Good luck and stay safe x

number of infected will stay low if we all self isolate. I am. Are you?
That's a pointless question. I could be a key worker.
But I'm not. I'm worried about the 1% death rate and acutely aware of the dangers of this pandemic in case you haven't noticed. So, obviously, I'm having house parties with my friends.

The other factor is the antibody test, no updates as yet?

I read that Germany is about to implement them, particularly in health workers.

They are coming, but production is a bit more complex than the RNA test used for virus detection.

They also estimate that 2.7% of the UK population have been infected as of 28th March.

Which is about 1.6 million people. Most of those would still be incubating/in early stages I believe.

I hope you’re right too. I’d be delighted to be wrong on this. Take care.

@Oakmaiden so at a 1% death rate that is an incremental 16,000 dead in the nest two week. Let’s see

*next

@SabineSchmetterling

I cannot decipher from that report what percentage they expect will have it before a vaccine. But it is late too tired. Better to discuss though, take it easy Bool hope things improve for your dh.

@MarshaBradyo this is an historic event. Thanks for being another positive voice. He is turning a corner so more relaxed.

To anyone looking for positivity, I know a lot of people exposed who have mild or zero symptoms. Some are very bad let’s be honest. But the majority are mild and minor. I am positive the death rate historically will be lower and we should relax. I am not relaxed about my parents who are locked away. Also my brother in law who has asthma and is a key worker making food and another who is making valve for ventilators. My DH has the wise time ever and thought he would die. But he (hopefully) has got through it. This is a total nightmare. I wish you all luck and safety and protect yourselves if vulnerable.

*worst not wise. I should preview

1000 people having it means 1m have got it with a 0.1% death rate

@Bool

Your statement only makes sense if everyone who is currently infected does not die... I understand that it takes 3-4 weeks from infection to death.

If, say, 1 million people have been infected, and 1.000 have died, the rapid increase in serious cases in the past few weeks indicates clearly that the number of those infected has increased rapidly.... In other words, most of those infected have been infected within the past 3-4 weeks and, on average, most of those who will die haven’t yet died.

And that is why they have built they into the number. Anyway. Think the worst. Isolation won’t make the number lower. It will just make it slower to reach. We will be there by the time there is a vaccine anyway. Let’s just take it slowly. But it will be 40,000 or around that figure. Love x

I am positive the death rate historically will be lower and we should relax.

Relax?! Tell that to my sister who’s a doctor... I suppose the footage out of Italy and Spain is faked, and actually the hospitals there are just going about their daily business. You’re as insulting as you are ridiculous.

*that not they.

@Derbygerbil errrr sorry. I have family in Italy. I have a DH who nearly died this weekend. I was the first person in January watching Wuhan and panicking. I am not relaxed. I am just trying I get perspective and balance.