Did UK introduce restrictions too early?

[Makeitgoaway]

Hear me out!

I don't think they planned to close schools when they did. I think the Welsh and Scotish governments forced their hand and they themselves were influenced by public opinion more than the science.

When I first heard "the plan" it sounded like there were terrible things to come but it made sense to me, as a way of controlling things as much as possible.

The public didn't like it and there was outrage that we didn't "lockdown" to protect ourselves, although "the public" also didn't behave in any sort of sensible manner to protect themselves as we saw last weekend.

So, measures were in force earlier than planned. The more restrictions there are and the earlier they are in place, the longer this thing will last. The restrictions don't protect "us", they protect the NHS. Most people will need to get it before this is over. Lockdown won't make it go away, just slow the rate of infection, meaning it takes longer to play out. While the NHS is coping, was there any need for the restrictions?

In Italy, it has taken 3 weeks for signs of social unrest to emerge. If that happens here we won't be even close to the peak at that stage. What happens then?

Btw, they are asking for volunteers to test possible vaccines now.

Once people are able to work and socialise again spending in the leisure industry will soar as people do what they have not been able to do during lock down.

My mindset has changed & I will definitely save more. The high street & fashion industry didn't really recover after 2008 & people switched to spending their money on experiences like restaurants & travel. Plus this time we can't slash interest rates & the economy was not in good shape before this happened.

They are asking for volunteers but it still takes about a year.

alloutoffucks
Many people will come out of this with no job, companies will shut for good, supply & demand will fall, we will have huge debt to repay, housing which the uk bases its consumerism on, may fall in price, based on when this has happened before our economy suffers.

Higher taxes = Less to spend and it will be the same across the world.

All i am saying is that we should look at what we are doing with perhaps a longer term view to the consequences.

In regard to testing, we have tested in total what Korea will test in less than TWO days.

I feel that home working should have started a week to 10 days earlier than it did. I was put at risk travelling to work on crowded trains. I think that is a large reason for London's spike in cases.

The population in South Korea is already prepared for epi/pandemics, we are not. I think that's why they contained it so much better.
As to did lockdown come too early, not in my opinion. In retrospect though, Cheltenham and the big football match should have bern cancelled, but that in itself would have caused problems, because a lot of people would have congregated and celebrated in other places.

Walkabout, the rioting in Wuhan isn't because they were told to go into lockdown it's because they've been there too long.

I'm not suggesting anything expect that a long lockdown will bring problems of it's own and I therefore wonder (in a very none expert way) if we went too soon, especially as we did seem to have a very controlled plan that suddenly escalated.

In the same way they have done in Ireland or New Zealand?

How are those countries enforcing lockdown?

Makeitgoaway - you don’t actually know why people are rioting in Wuhan now, or what else might have made them riot. You are just speculating.

South Korea's approach basically requires a level of state surveillance that ( pre c0vid) would not have been contemplated in this country where law prevents the state from monitoring every place you go and identifying everyone you have contact with, no opt out

Exactly! weirdly I was talking about self isolating to dh & realised my Siri had decided to record.

But what is happening in Wuhan is unsustainable. They are all wearing masks, checking temperatures and over 65 are not able to travel on public transport. They are waiting for the next spike. They don’t have the population immunity they need. Group immunity isn’t a plan or a strategy - it is an inevitable outcome. The point is getting there with as few fatalities as possible.

Bool yes agree with that

alloutoffucks
Of course you can eradicate a virus. Why do you think we don't get bubonic plague sweeping the country, or whooping cough?

We vaccinate against whooping cough, and we still get outbreaks of it in the UK!

@MarshaBradyo - The swine flu vaccine was being administered to all children in the UK within about 3 months of the start of the outbreak.

Why should this be any different? The only real difference is the mass hysteria in the media this time round, and the government’s over reaction to it.

Don’t listen to alloutoffucks she makes numbers up to suit her agenda I think she is the one scaremongering

EY I haven’t heard a single expert say it would be that fast. It’s really fast at 1 year to 18 months with overlap already. Do you have any information saying otherwise?

As whooping cough is a legally notifiable disease, the government keeps statistics on it. Here's a quote from.the most recent report.

^In England, there were 1176 laboratory confirmed cases of pertussis (culture, PCR, serology
or oral fluid) reported to the Public Health England (PHE) pertussis enhanced surveillance
programme in the third quarter of 2019, from July to September (table 1). Total cases were
30% higher than those reported in the same quarter of 2018 (907 cases) and 11% lower than
the 1324 cases reported in this quarter in 2017.^

www.gov.uk/government/publications/pertussis-laboratory-confirmed-cases-reported-in-england-2019

@MarshaBradyo - I can only say what happened with the swine flu vaccination because I lived through that, owned a nursery and knew that the children were all getting vaccinated within a few months of the start of the outbreak.

All ‘experts’ will have their own opinions. That does not change what happened historically with the swine flu pandemic, where the illness was eradicated in short order by a mass vaccination programme.

So we let lots of people die so that the public can see lock down is needed?
I can imagine that being Boris strategy because he is a coward so does not want to lead and say this is what needs to happen now.

Interestingly, I remember Hesseltine about 6 months ago saying the BJ was the sort of politician who waits to see which way the crowd is running and them leaps in front and shouts "follow me!"

I think he was dead right.

My understanding regarding the situation in Wuhan - riots were caused when the neighbouring province police force objected to the lifting of travel restrictions and the two police forces clashed followed by public riots in support of their respective police forces.

I have never developed a vaccine, but I suspect it's probably quicker to develop a vaccine for a new strain of flu, than it is to develop the very first vaccine for a completely different type of virus.

@alloutoffucks

• you keep saying we don't have enough young and healthy people to achieve 70% herd immunity, but according to this, only 19% of the UK population is over 65?

www.indexmundi.com/united_kingdom/age_structure.html

Age structure:
0-14 years: 17.59% (male 5,871,268 /female 5,582,107)
15-24 years: 11.71% (male 3,895,850 /female 3,726,311)
25-54 years: 40.29% (male 13,387,119 /female 12,843,549)
55-64 years: 12.22% (male 3,936,466 /female 4,022,245)
65 years and over: 18.19% (male 5,321,392 /female 6,518,939) (2018 est.)

@Oakmaiden one of Boris's aides described him as a Darwinian, hence the herd immunity and survival of the fittest theory.

EY it may not change what happened but it is a different situation now. You can see that surely?

It’s not their own opinion all vaccine makers are saying the similar across the world. Have a look at the projected timelines.

Saying similar