This is what has always troubled me about total lockdown

[Makeitgoaway]

I don't understand how we get out of it.

Of course, it should reduce transmission while we're all locked down but unless the whole world has it under control, as soon as we start getting back to normal, it will all start again. As they're beginning to see in China.

Is this going to become a regular way of life, with lockdown annually or every few years?

How does it go away - slowly and in a managed way - so we will be released to go out a bit more slowly the elderly will also be allowed out, travel in UK will be Ok eventually travel elsewhere etc. What will allow this - many will have had it and a level of herd immunity will exist, vaccinations will be available, testing will be better, we will have a better understanding how to clean against it and avoid transmission etc. It will come

The real worry is can you get it twice or is once enough to secure immunity?
From what I've read the signs are good, quite strong antibodies detected.

When lockdown is loosened they will pretend it's the end of restrictions. They won't say 'but it's all going to happen again in a few weeks' because the panic buying would happen all over again, only off the scale as everyone empties the shelves of EVERYTHING.

This is why Trump and his tribute act BoJo need to STOP with this “we will defeat the virus” bullshit like it’s some kind of tangible enemy you can win a war against. Like “war on drugs”, “war on terror” it’s bullshit macho political posturing and NOT helpful. There is no quick fix. Life will be changed now for a good while yet.

We cannot “defeat” this, it is in almost every country around the world, there is no “winning”. It will be with us for decades, if not centuries. We’ll manage it, we‘ll come up with treatments, vaccinations. Over time it won’t affect us as much and will join the roster of all the other thousands of infectious diseases we deal with.

In the whole of human history, we have only ever eradicated ONE human disease (smallpox), and one animal disease (rinderpest). That’s it. There’s a handful more on the brink but let’s not pretend that Covid19 is going to be joining that list any time soon, or even in most of our lifetimes, the suggestion is ridiculous.

The best glimmer of hope is being able to test people for antibodies, they will start with the NHS which will be such a good start. I do wonder how India will cope with this, 1.2 billion people and 100,000 ITU’s in the whole country, it will be an interesting county to watch, whether the death rate is very high but I doubt they will test everyone that dies from it so we might never know.

@makeitgoaway - thanks for posting your thread, because I wondered this also.

I’ve been in social isolation for two weeks, and still not fully recovered, but know in the next few days, I’m have to venture out. I’m not normally a germophobe, but am nervous in case I pick it up again. Part of me tries to rationalise that the chances are I have come into contact with it numerous times, and the bug I’ve had is covid19, but I’m still nervous about being let loose with all those germs.

@Eireni Well said
This is why Trump and his tribute act BoJo need to STOP with this “we will defeat the virus” bullshit like it’s some kind of tangible enemy you can win a war against.
It is ironic that a tiny microscopic virus can outplay these big macho men. Also the largest nations on the planet are being dictated to by Covid-19.
Whether we like it or not, this is the new normal. All the bluster and misinformation in the world will not beat this virus into submission.

The 'Lockdown' cannot last too long because a) no country can afford it, and b) a lot of people are already flouting the rules, so will just abandon it, especially as summer arrives (UK).
I agree with an earlier poster, I suspect it will be lifted gradually; ie shops open, schools open, WFH if possible, no large big events.
As no one has immunity to it, then I presume most people will eventually get it, until around 60 percent of population have had it, where the scientists believe that 'herd immunity' will protect the rest.

I found this article really interesting - she talks about immunity & the risk of relapse etc

www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/cambridge-virologist-explains-what-we-know-and-dont-know-about-covid-19-9104220/?fbclid=IwAR0WaeWVkw6Ak-mmk4mNf0LJ3g-xMRZNLvtZqv3hDnPSsXQgRBSXpf1ZQBM

I am worried that an awful lot of people seem to believe 'lockdown' will 'cure' the virus. People will continue to be infected & the longer we are in 'lockdown' the longer the period will be over which people are infected. Lets hope it has the desired effect on reducing & spreading the peak & that is be demonstrated to reduce CV & other deaths because there are massive societal & health costs for all this.

where does that leave the vulnerable people who really can't get it without a very high risk of becoming very ill and dying?

Will they have to stay in isolation for the full 18 months?

They will have to stay in isolation until the NHS has the capacity to help them if they get sick. At the moment, they don't.

So as I understand it, it's a case of waiting inside until it's 'safer', not in terms of not catching the virus, but in terms of adequate healthcare being available to give vulnerable people a fighting chance.

Anyone got any better ideas than lockdown?!?!?!

Summer is also likely to mute it but we'll have another phase in winter when nhs is at it's busiest anyway. Also, as with 1918, it's likely the virus will mutate. That time it mutated to be more severe.. which actually helped eradicate it. It started killing people within hours. This thing has no effect on the majority of people so it helps propagate it further and means it's unlikely to be eradicated. It'll just become seasonal and stay with us forever like the normal flu.. probably.

The lockdown is giving the NHS time to increase capacity so any future peaks should be easier to deal with.

Anyone got any better ideas than lockdown?!?!?!

Boris? Is that you?

Lockdown also 'buys time' for antibody testing to be devised, vaccination / cure to be developed etc.

once enough people become immune it will be much less present in the general population

That link is excellent, Laniakea, thank you!

Anyone got any better ideas than lockdown?!?!?! - Doing the testing and contact tracing that WHO recommended and that South Korea and Singapore managed to do to an earlier timetable. Some will think the excess deaths and huge economic cost that will fall to the UK arise from active choices made by the UK government earlier in the year.

I'm glad my belief that lockdown is to slow spread and not cure was correct.

Well I'm not because we'd all like it to just be beat like Trump and his side kick BoJo (that made me laugh!) think we can.

But I think we will have greater problems in some ways once this is over and life returns to more normality.

Currently with lockdown there (probably!) isn't gangs on streets.
But areas will need to be claimed or reclaimed once over. It may even be that it's worse because it'll all be boiling over via text and Sm right now and people have time to plan.

And there will be so many unemployed, it will take a while for the economy to pick up again

YADNBU, OP.

If you look at all the 'flattening the curve' diagrams, note the areas under the curves.

The curves show the same area, but one is flattened.

The same number of people get infected, but in a controlled way that the health services can cope with.

Vaccine hopefully ready in a year and hopefully some herd immunity, if you can only get it once. And also once under control, if you then test outbreaks and quarantine close contacts, then don’t need widespread lockdowns or so they are hoping.

Of course all the anti-vaxxers and their kids will be fine while the rest of us suck it up and get the vaccines to give them the privilege of herd immunity on which to then predicate their decision not to get vaccinated - ‘we are so healthy’ er, no I think you’ll find you have stopped being threatened by nasty childhood diseases as a mass vaccination programme was adhered to and they stopped being common/were almost eradicated. Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see what the response is.

There isn't some magic wand that we can wave to make it go away, so we have to manage the infection rates. If we don't, more people get infected and more people die. The aim is for the NHS not to get overwhelmed and until we have a mass treatment/vaccine available.

How we do it is open to conjecture. It will depend on what different cultures find acceptable, which will vary from country to country. What works well in China may not work in, say, Italy. The horrible truth is that ALL countries are experimenting with what they think will work best for their own populations.

The only thing that IS certain, is that preventing people from meeting with each other slows down the rate of infection. Beyond that, no-one knows for sure which approach to achieve this is the best .

What I don't understand is that before lockdown, people with certain conditions were to socially isolate stringently. I immediately started wfh as a teacher.

After 12 weeks if I haven't had it I will still be at risk going back to school. As many others will be. Or is the idea to then let us get it?