This is what has always troubled me about total lockdown

[Makeitgoaway]

I don't understand how we get out of it.

Of course, it should reduce transmission while we're all locked down but unless the whole world has it under control, as soon as we start getting back to normal, it will all start again. As they're beginning to see in China.

Is this going to become a regular way of life, with lockdown annually or every few years?

I think the idea has to be that restrictions are lifted intermittently, and then put in place again. So, most of us will catch it eventually, but in a controlled way that health services can handle. Once you get herd immunity then it is less able to spread to those who haven't had it. Bit like vaccinations.

they are aiming for 'waves' of supression measures (closures and lockdown etc) until a vaccine is completed and fully tested I think. About 18 months

So every 3 months or so we're 'let out' and then it happens again. Sad reality, yes.

The ainbisnt to stop people getting it. It's to control the rate of infection.

Health care systems just cant function if everybody got it with a couple if weeks of each other.

So schools opening and closing for 18 months? Businesses doing the same?

I'd like to say how is that possible but a few weeks ago I'd have said what we're seeing now was impossible too.

Wtf?

Sorry, that was awful.

The lockdown isnt to stop people getting it. It's to control the rate of infection

Instead of having all the cases in one massive peak, the goal is to have a series of gentle waves that don’t overwhelm the capacity of the health service. That will mean an alternating loosening and tightening of restrictions for some time.

I think we will move from complete lockdown to partial lockdowns when the peak is over. A partial lockdown could be

• wfh if possible
• no big events, sporting fixtures
• keep your distance as much as possible
• wear masks in public

but with schools and shops open. Plus widespread testing and infected people to stay at home.

There would still be a higher number of cases than in total lockdown but with the peak over, there would be capacity to treat in hospitals.

I think the shut down will have to stop fairly soon or the country will fall apart. Treatment for medical problem unless emergencies seems to be on hold. The country will have to stop borrowing at some stage.

Yes I understand about the peak and the NHS, I've seen Chris Whitty! I'm just not clear how we make it go away! How we get the heard immunity if we don't "let" people get it.

Plus isn't it only a matter of time before the next one?

The public demand for compete lockdown is definitely based the belief that it will prevent people from getting it. No one's thinking I dont want it now but I'll have it later!

A lot of the new cases in China are imported from abroad now with Chinese nationals returning with the disease. I agree with others though I think there will be periods of lighter and stricter restrictions. Plus as more people catch it and recover the waves of cases will get smaller.

Oh and I think a lot of people know they will get it. I just don’t want to get it when there is a shortage of ventilators!

Yes, that was my point Ciwirocks, to be successful the whole world has to have it under control, although they have seen "home grown" cases again now as well.

I agree OP. All the MNetters hoping that living in a sealed bubble for three weeks will solve the problem haven’t thought through the exit plan.

Once we reach a situation where most people have either had the virus, or there is mass vaccination of those who haven’t it will become like measles or TB, still there but under control. Only small numbers of people infected at any time. The problem with CV is not that it is particularly deadly or even very infectious (measles spreads much more quickly) but that none of us has immunity. What the NHS can’t cope with is all of us getting it at the same time. PPs are right, we will see periodic reductions in restrictions to allow spread, followed by tighter restrictions.

People are stupid, that's all

I do wonder if the idea is to get us so bored of lockdown we move to the next stage of business as usual and shrug when vulnerable people who won't self isolate get it. So back to Boris' original plan but with blame shifted to victims for dying, not him/his government.

How are you meant to develop 'herd immunity' for different strains? I might be immune to the current one but once they lift restrictions and people start travelling all over the world I'd have to be in fear of killing my husband with the next one.
This really sucks.

I do wonder if the idea is to get us so bored of lockdown we move to the next stage of business as usual and shrug when vulnerable people who won't self isolate get it. So back to Boris' original plan but with blame shifted to victims for dying, not him/his government.

And this is why there’s no tin foil left in ASDA...

It's all a gamble anyway. Second subsequent waves might be more or less deadly, might also affect children etc but might be more like a cold. Who knows? I am now hoping for early infection for my kids on the grounds that they are only going to get older (me too) and right now they are pretty much guaranteed to sail through it. But if there's a vaccine along soon that would make my decision less sensible. Who knows.

I didn't make up the government strategy of, what, two weeks ago you know Cendrillon. Remember Boris' heartwarming speech about how a whole loadof us were going to die, so get used to the idea (i paraphrase). What's really changed in Dominic Cummings mind since then? Psychopaths don't care about individual deaths the way you might, but they are good at pretending when it suits them.

It's to stop hospitals being overwhelmed. Lockdown now to minimise it spreading so everyone who currently has it or is incubating can be treated. Lift restrictions so people start going out again- it starts spreading once more and lockdown if needed once it looks like hospitals are reaching breaking point. And so on, until most people have been exposed to it or a vaccine becomes available. That's my understanding anyway.

How we get the heard immunity if we don't "let" people get it.

But people will still get it. Just not in high numbers. Lock down wont magically mean no one new cases in 3 weeks time.

Stircrazed, as I understand it we're still on the same strategy, just moved to the next phase more quickly than they hoped. I thought schools would stay open until next week. Whether that's because of public pressure or because things moved more quickly than expected, I dont know. I suspect the former and I hope it hasn't ruined the plan.

The thing is, hospitals are coping okay so far and yet we are still seeing young people dying quickly like that 21 year old girl. I appreciate they are a minority but if we let this disease run through the population we’re going to see thousands like her.

How are you meant to develop 'herd immunity' for different strains?
You don't always, but you develop a partial immunity so when you meet another strain you get a milder illness.
That's what happens with colds and seasonal flu. They are similar to viruses you have had before so your immune system knows how to fight them off.
The problem with new viruses like Covid-19 or pandemic flu (swine flu, Spanish flu) is you haven't encountered anything like that before so your immune system finds it harder to fight it and is more likely to become overwhelmed so you die.