This is what has always troubled me about total lockdown

[Makeitgoaway]

I don't understand how we get out of it.

Of course, it should reduce transmission while we're all locked down but unless the whole world has it under control, as soon as we start getting back to normal, it will all start again. As they're beginning to see in China.

Is this going to become a regular way of life, with lockdown annually or every few years?

What we all need to do is listen to the chief medical advisor and stay inside until the nhs can get to a stage where these hundreds and now thousands of Coronavirus cases can start to be managed by the frontline staff who are working tirelessly seven days a week for us. Why are people still gathering in parks why can’t they exercise during the day and night outside in their gardens and if they don’t have one then in the front outside their flats. We now have plenty of time to exercise since we are being paid to stay inside by the govt because we have a crisis out of control. Why are people being so selfish by having to deliberately exercise in parks to the detriment of others just egoistic and selfish. We all need to get back to work after three months the govt will not be able to continue to pay eight percent of our salary we are extremely lucky to be even getting that now from our employers. People need to wake up most of us want to earn an honest days living and not live on handouts which will soon be rationed if we carry on ignoring the medical advice to stay inside. Wake up people if this crisis worsens we will only have ourselves to blame and not the government when we can’t pay our bills or put food on the table.

The absolute tragedy is that if everyone had a reacted quickly and in unison in Jan/Feb we actually had a real chance of eradicating the disease

By that point I don't think anyone had realised people were infectious before symptoms.
The quick measures and heavy hand were by countries with high population densities.
Previous experience with similar viruses allowed relatively good containment without affecting the entire country.
The degree of asymptomatic transmission was a game changer and quite unexpected.

How are you meant to develop 'herd immunity' for different strains?

You still get immunity to different strains of similar viruses hence cowpox giving immunity to small pox and if you have flu you normally have immunity for 3 years, even though the seasonal flu changes every year.

I found this fascinating, it is mainly about Spanish flu but also the genomes of flu and how it gets into our bodies and how are antibodies work. I know Covid-19 isn't flu, it's by Michael Worobey, Professor, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Arizona

It was completely clear by end Jan that this was going to spread. It was pretty clear a week or so before then but definitely by end Jan. I know as I went back and checked my diary and that was when I realised for certain and started major prepping. (I thought it was earlier but that was the lightbulb moment). I based that on available facts. Presumably there was a short time lag before available facts were released to the public.

As you say, lweji, it was the realisation that it was transmitted up to two weeks before symptoms showed that was a 100% confirmation we were all fucked. I thought that was last day or so of January but I might be wrong on that as I can't find it in the papers. I remember that news article as a really 'oh shit we are all fucked' moment but there were plenty of moments before then. It starting at Chinese New Year was never a good sign for a virus you don't want to go worldwide.

I wish it was like that, Johal, I really do, but lockdown isn't designed to make it go away any more, that moment has passed.

As an aside, and I posted this elsewhere, what do you think young healthy people (or desperate people actually) are going to do once they realise that getting a certificate of immunity leads to being allowed back out? (See Germany and possible proposals there, although it is a torygraph source)

was the realisation that it was transmitted up to two weeks before symptoms showed

I thought the evidence was that this is pretty rare and that most.people seem to be most infectious in the couple of days before symptoms start and in the 7 days after . Obviously there will be a minority who don't some in that category but how big that minority is will be unclear for a while. It is still not clear how many people are asymptomatic carriers and won't be for a very long time.

I also don't agree we couldn't have stopped this in its tracks . We could have done if we had the will and of there had been plans in place that were ready to be implemented straight away. It would have required courage from world leaders though and a willingness to be criticised for ' overreacting_ That was an unlikely scenario I know but I genuinely believe we could have done it. No point cryong over spilt milk now though, that time has long passed.

Yes, we could have, knowing what we know now. At the time, decisions were made based on what was known then.
Hindsight is great.

More worrying are countries that already had/have the information and have delayed measures.

Like us, you mean? Italy must have wondered what was wrong with us (ok, all of Europe and the WHO were pretty appalled)

For what is worth, I think the UK did well at the start. Had cases early on, were testing cases, tracking contacts, testing and isolating. You can see that cases stayed low for weeks. Then, news came that they'd stop testing everyone, and people with symptoms were to isolate without further measures. It's the time between stopping intensive testing and closing schools, etc, that was the biggest mistake. It needs to be one, or the other or both. But not neither.

I'm worried about the Netherlands. Apart from irritating southern EU countries, including my usually diplomatic PM, they seem to want to rely on that herd immunity theory.
It started a few days before Portugal and it already has 4x the number of dead per million population and over 6x more in critical condition. I do hope their health system will be able to cope.