This is what has always troubled me about total lockdown

[Makeitgoaway]

I don't understand how we get out of it.

Of course, it should reduce transmission while we're all locked down but unless the whole world has it under control, as soon as we start getting back to normal, it will all start again. As they're beginning to see in China.

Is this going to become a regular way of life, with lockdown annually or every few years?

Guessing, let's hope you 'stay safe' and don't die for anybody's misunderstanding of the nature of the economy.

@DCOkeford you've lost your mind!

@Zilla1 thank you, I've seen you post before and I know you to be intelligent and knowledgeable so hopefully others will pay your posts more heed!

Guessing, kind of you to say but I'll know the world is truly in trouble if people start paying more attention to what I say (on a forum and IRL). It must be scary times but I understand for almost all ages and medical conditions, the majority of people survive an active COVID infection so hope you get to enjoy your forty years (plus the extra as medical developments over the next forty years that mean that you'd live even longer and be [economically] valuable for longer too). It would be even better if the lockdown means more people who would survive with ITU support get it by 'flattening' the curve.

I suspect the solution lies somewhere between DC and Zillas views. Yes, while it's a hurricane out there we should work to protect the vulnerable (obvious or not) in our community- but this situation is not sustainable. People will die of Covid 19, older people and younger people despite best efforts. But life has to go on, and build and grow. Things don't stop for any length of time. No one (well, apart from Trump it seems) is going to be that asshole who says 'nah, you know what? You're on your own' to the old and vulnerable in the country they are in charge of.

Once the NHS is over the hurdle in the next month or so, things will move again. Wheels of science will still turn in the background and the gov will keep an eye on it but I think the hysteria will be kept to a media controlled minimum.

nellodee I hope you're right.

Regarding age, as I understand it the most recent information shows the idea Covid-19 only kills old people is false. It's lethal to people over a wide age range.

Do you have your stats for that safari?

Of course, there are some deaths in all age ranges, even one or two in the under 10s

Even though there's been a relatively large number of deaths globally, I'd take most statistics with a pinch of salt until there's more rigour around standardisation (contrast the approaches around denoting cause of death - some countries put a death down to COVID if a patient dies and they tested positive, some don't if the patient was admitted with something else then they catch COVID and die from COVID symptoms rather than what they were admitted for) and a better understanding around testing and the 'true' prevalence of COVID in the population.

That's true, and it changes daily it seems. That's why I asked. The most recent I saw was pretty clear that it affects the old far far far more than the young, and men far more than women, and those with specified pre existing conditions far far more than others

3200 deaths in Italy.
Yeah death from covid19 "can" happen at any age.
and it "can" happen regardless of baseline health status.
But being an elderly male with 3+ conditions puts you in the highest risk group.

Look at how much lower the death rate is in women 😲

If there are people who are prepared to ‘take one for the team’ they can do so by refusing all medical treatment for any health problem they experience over the next two years.

I’m in the vulnerable group and I would rather not take one for the team. I would rather avoid catching this for as long as possible, because that gives more time for better treatments to be developed which will save lives.

The more the curve is flattened, the more chance each person has of recovering, because they have more chance of getting medical treatment and that treatment improving as time goes on. It will reduce overall deaths, not just delay them.

It will reduce overall deaths, not just delay them

No, the same number of deaths will happen regardless - 100% of people who have been born will die.

If they don't die of Coronavirus, they will just die of something else.

Well obviously.

But it will reduce people dying as a consequence of the Coronavirus.

The long term effect of major catastrophe tends to improve society in unexpected ways

The First World War led to a huge recession in the short term but then things including votes for women, ecominic growth, huge new technological developments, the raising of poor from servitude ...

The Second World War gave us an incredibly tough 10 years and also the NHS, social security

I think people feeling that life hereafter is doomed are being too black

That is one view of history - an endless upward cycle
Actual history tends to paint a different picture

But it will reduce people dying as a consequence of the Coronavirus

...only for them to die anyway of something else, and the global economy to be brought to its knees to boot?

Really?

It seems clear the old are more at risk as are those with certain co-morbities.

It will be interesting whether males are more at risk due to gender or whether because they tend to have more of the COVID risky co-morbities or because the tend to smoke more in Italy and China than women.

HCPs seem at particular risk in Italy and China. The UK are seeing this based on the number of HCPs under-60 with no risk factors already ventilated or passed already.

HCPs seem at particular risk in Italy and China. The UK are seeing this based on the number of HCPs under-60 with no risk factors already ventilated or passed already

I think this is due to the viral load issue that a pp mentioned.

The problem with the numbers from the Coronavirus it doesn’t give a percentage of the people who would’ve died from other under lying health problems so some of these people would’ve died anyway. Spanish flu because it affected the younger generation, the deaths were mostly because of Spanish flu.

We could get rid of all healthcare on the basis that we’re all going to die anyway, but most people want the opportunity to live a long life.

I am in my forties and could live another 50 healthy years. I don’t want to die of Coronavirus.

We don’t know what trajectory the economy will take. Periods of disruption are often followed by rebuilding in a new way that’s less prone to being stressed by similar events in the future.

Everyone dies sometime. That doesn't mean you wouldn't want antibiotics or chemo.

Or ventilation.

Is anyone here wanting to put a £ value on years of active life? Because that's what some people are coming very close to doing

They don't know yet how many people would have died in the next year no, but it's pretty obvious from the numbers getting ill that a lot of people now dying would have lived a good few more years

How many years are you happy to take from someone's life?

Well viral load (which doesn't affect all viral infections) and not having any/appropriate/unexpired PPE.

Though I must be viewing this the wrong way. Why should we use PPE or even give patients any medical treatment when we or they would only die of something else at another time?

The problem with the numbers from the Coronavirus it doesn’t give a percentage of the people who would’ve died from other under lying health problems so some of these people would’ve died anyway.

Yes, it's because many of these people would have died either way that they're storing bodies on an ice rink in Spain.