When will we know if lockdown is working?

[TheoriginalLEM]

Was there a reason they said 3 weeks? How can they tell if infection is slowing without testing? There must be epidemiological models? The death rate is rising quickly but how long after infection are people dying? So maybe this will peak

It's because it takes 14 days for symptoms to show

D'oh of course.

I read somewhere that it was generally 19 days from infection to death for those that have died.

Lots of people were out over the weekend mingling - it can take 14 days for symptoms to show and a bit longer to become critically ill