3 weeks?

[PumpkinP]

I keep reading people saying it’s only 3 weeks, but surely it’s going to go on for much longer than that ?

I reckon its going to Be longer as well

Other countries that have gone into lockdown have tightened and extended theirs so it's likely to be much longer than 3 weeks yes...

It will be longer if people don’t follow the rules. As an example today my husband has seen someone in a car wash washing his car . Enough said really. If we still have people like that. It will be longer and we will have to do it harder.

Bollocks will it be three weeks. There are still too many people out and about, probably because their job cannot be done from home and they cannot lose the pay.

How long are people expecting it to go on? The lockdown I mean.

I'm thinking 3 weeks to get me through.

I honestly don't think I can stand longer than 3 weeks, surely peoples mental health will start to suffer.

Of course it'll be longer - and stricter too, if people don't stop being arses. The parks in London today are still full of idiots, no doubt all taking their 'daily exercise'.

I think he has initially said three weeks as this covers the bank holiday weekend, so was a timing thing as well.

That’s what I keep saying all over fb “it’s only 3 weeks, surely you can stay inside for just 3 weeks” erm it’s going to be much longer than that! I think people are taking the review in 3 weeks to mean it will only last 3 weeks. I think this is going to effect a lot of people’s MH I’m just lucky I have a garden I would seriously struggle if I didn’t.

The people asked to self isolate because they are vulnerable is asked to do it for 12 weeks. The paper Neil Ferguson who advised the government wrote is for up to September. So I think best case is 12 weeks, worst case is at least 12 weeks depending on changes in modelling. He also reckon there will subsequent periods of lockdown again, on and off for 18 months, which is when they think we'll get a vaccine.

So basically worst case is 18 months or a bit more.

Its going to be longer than 3wks i reckon especially with so many people thinking the lockdown doesnt count them

All he said is they will 'review' in 3 weeks, all likelihood it will be 3 months and stronger lockdown measures introduced in that time. It's a calculated approach.

I also don’t think it can be three weeks, but it’s not going to be eighteen months in my view either,

I think the scientists will find a successful treatment well before then, as in they will do so in the coming weeks, they are nearly there now and trialling over twenty treatments on humans globally and sharing the info, scientists and pharmaceutical companies are also tweaking the “recipe” of some of these existing drugs, as well as mixing them, to make them more effective against it, and trialling those tweaked and mixed drugs, based on their success findings.

For me I think this really is all about the scientists and what they can achieve and how quickly. And we stay locked down till they do achieve it. They are nearly there, and definitely having some success.

A vaccine is much further off.

I think with one of the many successful trials they will start using these drugs to widely treat people very very soon, but continue to evolve and improve those drugs as they are doing so.

One of the strategies outlined and modelled in the Imperial report is adaptive triggering of suppression techniques (ie lockdown) so when there are more than 100 ICU cases in a week, we go into lockdown. If there are less than 50 ICU cases in a week, social distancing measures are lifted and schools/universities could be opened. When ICU cases rise to 100 cases in a week again, we go into lockdown again.

It could be that the government is considering this option depending on what effect lockdown has.

3 weeks is when they expect to be at the peak or just over the other side, so by no means out of the woods or at the finish line; but things, in theory, should be getting better numbers wise. What actually happens though remains to be seen, it will be ongoing for a fair while I think- but things might relax and then restrict on and off.

I think it will be 18 months to 2 years.

I mean the lock down btw, that can’t be for 18months-2 years surely

Not a chance lockdown will be 18-24 months

I think the lockdown will be 18-24 months, yes.

So kids out of school for 2 years??

Lockdown I think will be at least 8-12 weeks. We need to get to the point where rate of change is negative (each consecutive day has fewer cases than the day before) before restrictions can be lifted. Thereafter, we will see the alternating approach of loosening/tightening of restrictions to support the NHS's capacity until such a time that a vaccine can be found.

Effective antiviral treatment, may help in reducing the severity of future restrictions , as in theory, it will reduce the number of patients requiring admission and critical care and the length of hospital stay - putting less pressure on the system

The whole period of loosening/tightening could well last 18 months

What EastCoastDamsel said ... it’s not about eradicating the virus it’s about controlling the pressure in the NHS.

My city in China has had lockdown measures for two months. There has been some relaxing of restrictions over this time and the focus now is preventing the virus coming back in as people return. There have been cases because of this, but these can be managed and there is no longer a massive strain on the medical service.

I think it'll be longer. It's like the old thing that shops make things 99p as it seems cheaper than £1. 3 weeks is less than a month and more palatable atm. They're easing us into something longer.