3 weeks?

[PumpkinP]

I keep reading people saying it’s only 3 weeks, but surely it’s going to go on for much longer than that ?

If it was being done properly, with all non essential business closed/wfh then possibly 10 - 12 weeks lockdown.

However, all the selfish twats who think the rules don't apply to them are going to ensure it's much longer than that.

We need far more stringent rules. Rules. Not guidance or advice.

This absolutely can not go on for 18 months to 2 years. This can’t even go on for 2 months.

Right now the main goal is to slow the spread of the virus and not overwhelm the NHS. It’s also buying time to get the equipment that’s needed, testing, ecc

The ramifications of locking up the world for months are grave, extremely grave. Economists are talking about a global depression. You’re talking about people’s livelihood, life savings, income, health(mental and physical), and their future to be wiped out. A stimulus package and bail out can only do so much.

Boris knows this which is why he says 3 weeks and why he told the vulnerable and elderly to isolate for 12 weeks. He knows we need to slow the spread and this is what we have to do. But at the same time, people need to get back to work. Kids need to go to school. The world can not just stop. I’m not saying go back right after the 3 weeks but a slow ease on restrictions.

www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/business/coronavirus-economy-markets/index.html

However, all the selfish twats who think the rules don't apply to them are going to ensure it's much longer than that

Ironically, the selfish twats could actually help shorten the duration of the pandemic by building up herd immunity faster but at the cost of risking the lives of many selfless medics and essential workers. If it weren't for that, it would be a rather nice example of Darwinian selection.

I think the point is, the first wave will be 3 weeks. Then they may or may not relax restrictions. If they do, we start mingling again, it comes back, they shut it down again. I think that's how they want to flatten the peak.

They said today they have ordered 3.5 million antibody tests. Obviously front line staff are priority for those - but conceivably anyone who is shown to be immune could be allowed to come and go as normal.

Italy initially said 3-4 weeks, from 10/3 to 3/4.
That's not yet been rescinded but nobody is expecting to go back out there on 3/4. Realistically possibly the beginning of May they may begin to relax restrictions and ease people back out step by step. Schools will be the last thing to go back.

I can't see any other countries being wildly different to that.

I think more than about 4 weeks and a lot of people will be on the edge.
But I still think 18-24 months realistically by which time we will all be fat, unfit and mentally ill.

Italians are beginning to come out of their homes. There's only so long you can keep people in their homes - even in China they had to conduct mass arrests and hammer and nail people into their homes.

Long term, another solution will need to be found.

Long term, another solution will need to be found

The point is to 'allow' people to catch it in peaks and troughs, as far as I understand it. Rather than keep everyone in indefinitely (which isn't sustainable anyway) then everyone catch it when they're 'let out' the idea is to have a sort of few months on, few off scenario so the infections come in waves rather than one unmanageable high peak. That way the NHS can better cope, and people will be able to move more freely for a few weeks so they won't get bored of isolation.

Those of you saying that they hope it's not longer than 3 weeks, it will highly likely be much longer.

I'm desperate to stay at home, I can't as I'm a key worker and with health conditions.

Nobody really knows, so those saying 18 months to 2 years are erring on the extreme side of caution. I would think that that extreme is just as unlikely as it is only being 3 weeks.

I think all we can do is try to take each day as it comes, and realise that at the end of each day, we are one day closer to this being over. One day longer that we have ourselves navigated.

I put myself in self imposed isolation last Thursday. Reach 5 days, 7 days, 14 days, and take it from there.

Mini targets to help me mentally and emotionally.

Imperial college graph suggests ot wont die down til August.

I've got it as six months in my mind

Much longer. More like 13 but of they say that it causes unrest

I'm not sure how true this is but was speaking to someone and they think there just trying to control the spread so nhs don’t get over run, so now we’ve been locked down for 3 weeks so the people in hospitals ect can (I know it sounds awful) die or recover in this time, borris will fight for more beds and stuff and then after 3 weeks they’ll be more prepaired, so then rules can be slackened slightly we can go out more, and then when it starts to pick up again, we’ll be locked down again so the people in hospital can die/recover. So it’s like everyone doesn’t get it at once it comes in waves 🤔🤔🤔 interesting but again not sure how true

That is exactly right Bittersweet12 and very clear in what they have been saying. They can't stop people getting it at all (only a successful vaccine would do that) but they need to slow it down drastically while building up NHS capacity.

@Bittersweet12

Yep I think that’s exactly what they’re going to do. I believe we’ll be in this of on and off lockdown for at least another 12 months.

Bittersweet, no, that was the original projection, the scientists, and imperial/ sage, have revised that now and presented it yesterday, the presentation is available on line to view.

Thats really interesting @Bluntness100. I'd love to see it - do you have a link?

@JenaWren you can find all the Imperial research on the Imperial College website.

The government gave itself emergency powers for 2 years. Seems like a more realistic time frame. Although I'm guessing we won't be on full on lockdown that long, it'll be interrupted, reinstated etc. But overall chaos will continue.

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196477/j-ideas-neil-ferguson-tells-mps-lockdown/

You can also google and watch his interview, plus lots of media reporting on the new model.

parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/2b1c71d4-bdf4-44f1-98fe-1563e67060ee

Brilliant. Thanks @Bluntness100. That looks encouraging.

@bluntness100 what so what's the new plan they are suggesting? X