I think it’s impossible to say because every country has done something differently,and while people have criticised us for not following Italy, we in fact brought in stricter measures before Italy did,because when they first went into lockdown shops and restaurants and cafe’s were still open for at least a week until they too were closed.
In theory a three week lockdown should be sufficient to slow the virus, because by the end of three weeks those who will have been symptomatic will have passed through the stage of having had the virus.
What people need to remember is that they’re not looking to eradicate the virus, but to slow its progression until the health service can cope.
What we also don’t know is exactly how the virus will behave over time, everything is pure speculation even on the part of the science professionals, because the virus hasn’t yet even passed through a year of existence yet. So just because something happened one way in China doesn’t mean it will be the same the world over.
Italy is in fact a case in point. They have been on lockdown now for weeks and the numbers have risen dramatically over that period whereas in china it was actually brought under more control much quicker with the majority of new hospitals being closed by the end of February.
One thing people also need to remember is that there are quotes circulating around the internet that 5% of people will die of this virus when this is categorically not the case. At current estimate, around 20% of people infected will need hospital treatment, and of those 20% 5% will die, which is a much, much smaller figure.
We do still need the slowdown in order for the NHS to cope, but we need to separate that from the panic being spread that 5% of people will die. The figure is actually approximately 1%, which while still too high is not as high as is being claimed.