Lockdown is not the answer

[NellyGrace]

We have a vulnerable family member and have been isolating for 9 days. This is unsustainable. It will drive us mad.

Whilst it was just the vulnerable we could cope as we could still go out to walk. We have no garden.

If the crazy want to carry on mixing. Let them. The vulnerable can hide if they choose.

Test like South Korea and isolate the pockets of disease.

We should not be allowing governments to use this as a way to take away our freedom.

You are absolutely not being unreasonable. I think there’s a real danger that we remain in this panic state.

I see what you’re saying now Mimi and totally agree that a stronger lockdown is necessary. Thank you for explaining

I'm so worried. Noone is bloody listening to the advice. There are huge crowds along the sea front today even.

why wont they listen?

Lockdown is vital until widespread targeting testing is available. And social distancing is then still vital either until there is herd immunity or a vaccine.

'We are warned of supposedly devastating death rates. But at least one expert, John Ioannidis, is not so sure. He is Professor of Medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University in California. He says the data are utterly unreliable because so many cases are going unrecorded
He warns: ‘This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4 per cent rate from the World Health Organisation, cause horror and are meaningless.’ In only one place – aboard the cruise ship Diamond Princess – has an entire closed community been available for study. And the death rate there – just one per cent – is distorted because so many of those aboard were elderly. The real rate, adjusted for a wide age range, could be as low as 0.05 per cent and as high as one per cent
As Prof Ioannidis says: ‘That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05 per cent is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational'

UY hospitals are becoming overwhelmed. Can’t you see that the consequence of that is mass death from many causes? If hospitals can’t treat people, millions die. The death rate is not solely people who die from the virus.

Surely that misses the point that the health service can't cope with the demand if nothng is done. Small percentages of very large numbers are still very large numbers when compared to ICU beds.

UYScuti - It’s a bit irrational talking about being irrational when we already know that Italy’s healthcare system is not coping with the number of cases. However low the percentage of people who die, it is entirely rational to try to control the number of cases likely to need hospital care all at the same time - unless you want to be responsible for a huge increase in deaths from cancer, accidents and every other bloody illness people need hospital care for.

We’re not really in lockdown. It’s like summer holidays in my local park. I went out to walk the dog for 30 minutes and expected to see a few other people walking, getting air, keeping distance. Instead it was all picnics and volleyball, football matches, kids running around in huge groups! People mixing in huge groups. In high summer, I’ve not seen my local park so packed.
I have a family of five and we don’t go out together on a walk with the dog. It’s me alone or with one other family member. I’m beginning to think I’m part of the problem. There’s a very isolated are where I walk the dog and I think I’ll just do that bit in the evening.
And if you’re a dog walker, PLEASE ffs, DON’T come up and chat to me about your fucking dog on HRT (like one otherwise nice lady did yesterday, but I was like ‘fuck off! I’m recovering from a heart attack and I don’t want covid-19 right now).
Oh and my neighbours are ALL up for a chat on the pavement. It really pisses me off. I don’t go out other than to give the dog his evening jaunt.

We should not be allowing governments to use this as a way to take away our freedom

What about those who are having their lives taken away by the virus? Some people cannot completely self isolate, such as those needing medical care, people who live in care homes, key workers etc. Surely, Governments take away lots of freedoms all the time. For example, I am not allowed to murder my annoying neighbour. Few people want anarchy.

I do agree that it is rational to try and slow down the rate of death and not overwhelm the health system, we are all navigating uncharted waters

S.Korea hasn't had a lock-down... but mass testing, technology to warn of hotspots and then more testing.
Positive cases are isolated and treated.

They think within 14 days they'll be back to normal.

Meanwhile we ve a Govt who says we can all go out and walk, so we all do and we all met up... and if you fly in from Italy or Iran then its "please pretty please can you stay at home for a few days....." its a fuckin joke.

YANBU. I’m far more worried about the medium and long term impact on the economy and the lives lost with more austerity than I am about this virus. There is also no obvious way out of all this isolation and distancing. No guarantee the virus won’t surge again. The first approach (isolating the vulnerable) was the correct one but the government couldn’t muster up the courage to mandate its elderly voters into staying at home.

We’re not really in lockdown The UK isn't in lockdown at all, nothing like it. They've closed the schools, but only partially (there's no school ofr anyone in Spain or Italy, "key worker" or not) and closed bars and so on, but with the take away option as a get out.
Half arsed measures.

It's not unsustainable. People with chronic illnesses or disabilities live like this all the time. I personally know someone who hasn't seen the sky except through a window for over 30 years.

It's not just the stupid who are at risk of infection. Some people have no choice but to mix with others. So those of us who do have that choice should exercise it to protect them.

Lock down is the answer.

I agree lockdown needs to happen. Too many are carrying on as usual putting others at risk especially key workers. Less children are needed in schools as well, too many are still sending them in because they can.

There are two questions here - the first is should there be lockdown (answer is yes) the second is what can we do to alleviate the problems which are going to be faced by vulnerable families.

Re lockdown, WHO think that in addition to lockdown we need to be looking at doing the testing, tracking analysis done by Asian countries.

There is no way to escape an airborne infection which has already travelled all the way around the world, many people who are exposed to this virus will have little or no symptoms, most who become ill Will recover, some will not recover despite medical intervention
over time the virus will likely attenuate and become less pathogenic
Our best option is to try and slow down the rate at which the people most vulnerable are exposed to the virus, but the measures necessary to do this are also destructive to our infrastructure and economy.
It is a difficult balancing act.

@jasjas1973 south korea did have lockdown, or social distancing, i believe.

I hope they lock down today.

How will lockdown work with care workers doing their calls?

It is unsustainable

Yes, a few people live like that all the time

Who grows their food? Packages it? Ships it? Buys it? Delivers it?

In a global economy our population is nowhere near self sufficient

Lockdown is not sustainable and when we eventually come to terms with that, the virus will still be there, possibly milder possibly stronger possibly affecting the young by that stage.

DongDingDong, your link doesn't work! I attached a link that also didn't work. No one actually cares about your facts on flu. Flu is totally different and dealt with year in and year out. Whether you want to believe it or not, there's averagly 477 deaths in the UK each year from flu according to death certificates where flu killed them. Your figures are where flu has contributed to the death but it was not the cause of death as in the person had flu when they died but they found something else that helped to cause the death so it wasn't just flu.

Coronavirus will be the actual cause of death for many people, probably more than 477 people by the time it's done. Either coronavirus or pneumonia. My grandad had flu when he died but his cause of death was recorded as cancer because he had cancer and died from that with the flu not helping matters but they believe he died from cancer

This post is beyond irrittating.

We have a vulnerable family member and have been isolating for 9 days. This is unsustainable. It will drive us mad

I don't think you have to completely self isolate solely because you have a vulnerable family member, though obviously it's kind of a good idea. It's not in the guidance.

Surely it's better this than your family member dying and knowing that you didn't do all you could to prevent it? It'll be annoying- you won't literally go mad, and if you really have to and it's an emergency, you can get help for your mental health

Whilst it was just the vulnerable we could cope as we could still go out to walk

You can still go out for a walk, just try and keep 2m between yourself and other people outside the family.

If the crazy want to carry on mixing. Let them.

Nope, then it'll spread the virus further and vulnerable people will still be at further risk than they would otherwise have been. Some may have carers coming in, have to get a bit of shopping, or go to medical appointments by some transport, all putting them at more risk the more people who have the virus and touch surfaces they have to touch etc.

We should not be allowing governments to use this as a way to take away our freedom.

That is largely irrelevant in these times. They're not temporarily limiting the stuff we do for the sake of it, but to try and save as many as they can of hundreds of thousands of lives that are going to be lost. After it's no longer necessary to try and avoid people dying (a bit more important than us having more fun) they will remove the measures.

No lockdown. Really?

Tell that to the West Yorkshire police, who were being "spat on" and "coughed on" by "large crowds" yesterday.

Reported in the Yorkshire Evening Post today