How long are you expecting this to go on for?

[DennisReynoldsDuster]

Just curious. Friends seem to think it will all be fine again by May, I kind of feel like we will be lucky if we are “back to normal” by Christmas.

And by “this” I mean businesses shut and social distancing etc

I don’t understand why people will think a war will come out of it?

I think there is a sort of competitive oneupmanship emerging in these estimates where people scoff at.others wishful thinking if they say 3 months or something. Or posting a month then a couple of blank lines then 2021. If the situation as it currently stands were to last more than 6 months I genuinely think there would come a point where isolation-induced suicides would start to rival the death rate of COVID 19. I don't know when we will be able to socialise again but if I is more than 6 months I probably would be weighing up a path forward.

Sorry @PicsInRed missed your post
I hope you’re wrong we are in enough shit as it is

Like others I think this could go on for 1-2 years, with times of relaxed rules followed by lockdown.

If it does go on for a longer time I'm not sure we'll ever go back to the way things were.

War?!!! Yeah good luck with that - no country will have the money or resources to spend on starting a war. Everyone will be in deep debt

Depends on;

Antiviral treatment one is showing promise, but it only works if administed early on. Several others are being tried and trialled.

Vaccine. Around 40 are in devlopment and some have already have started human trials. I expect they well work BUT and it is the real BUT you need time to test them to make sure your not damaging anything else in the body that can take time to show up. However depeneds on how desperate we may get;!!

Situation in China, is very much improved but there sociey is run differnlty to ours, they do as their told, we don't.

Good opening to anyone who can make a more efficitve face mask., One that does work better treated filters with an anti viral coating may take a bit of time to make and develop. It might not stop all transmission but if it stops some ot a percentage then that may make life a bit more normal.

Wouldn't like to predict times, perhaps later this year it might be that some things do work out and we can control it or manage it better not a 100% cure, but maybe enought to see a lot of things return to more or less normal:!

I suspect that there will be a balance of how many lives need to be lost vs the risk of a break down of the economy. 6 months I should think before the tide will turn and society will have had enough.

World wars aren’t feasible anymore, nuclear weapons mean they’d be no winners.

If the situation as it currently stands were to last more than 6 months I genuinely think there would come a point where isolation-induced suicides would start to rival the death rate of COVID 19

Exactly. It would be completely counter productive and they know that because they already acknowledged lockdown can’t start too early as people will tire of it. It would be stupid to drag it on as you’d risk rioting/looting etc

The only way you’d be able to do it is by releasing the restrictions long enough in between for people to breathe/ recover a bit

Sorry but Africa is really hot all year round and it's now rife there. This is not a virus we have seen before. No one can definatly say this will die out in hot temperatures. No one knows for sure yet!

@wonderstuff

By the beginning of June we'll possibly be just getting over the peak.

In theory, if we go into proper lockdown then everyone who will have it, would have had it and recovered or not, maybe passed it on to family members etc it could be dealt with in about 12 weeks or so?
We’d probably still have to keep borders closed for a while and check at exit and entry when they open.

Until a proven vaccine comes ( at least a year) the world will be holding it's breathe. As Boris Johnson ( idiot) said is this the human 'last gasp?' ( he said this referring to trying to get respirators)

They've just this on the BBC news, there will on/off relaxing of measures so there are small peaks of the virus rather than one hige spike. I think from June / end of June there will be some relaxing. Especially as hot temps may well lower the virus intensity as with many other viruses.

*huge

Really ironic after polluting and choking the Earth for hundreds of years along comes a virus that chokes us!

they did say the hot temp thing is yet an unknown factor, but even without that there will be on'off relaxing of measures - to keep capacity in hospitals and not least, try to keep people from mental breakdown.

I also work at a university. Nothing definitive yet but the academic calendar is going to take a huge hit.
Last autumn Ibooked and paid for a holiday in August. A friend asked me if I had travel insurance (I didn’t) and bought some today just in case anyone else might have forgotten/put it off

To get back to 'normal' will IMO take 10-15 years. I don't mean we will be self-isolating during that time - but for the economy and confidence to pick up.

Sosten absolutely, sort of nature's revenge.

It’s all very bleak. 12 weeks seems unbearable so months on end will be absolutely miserable.

I have friends/family that suffer from depression and/or anxiety and this is already taking a huge toll. I just hope they limit the amount of coverage and speculation they watch and read.

I’m also feeling increasingly cross with China and their bloody wet markets.

@EustaciaPieface what have you heard about university workers - can you expand?

OP you will never get a proper answer to a question like this. For some bizarre reason there are people on this forum who take a perverse pleasure in predicting an apocalypse, so they will say things like “June........2021” without any explanation. Just because they want to.

The answer is that no one knows.

I agree that no one knows. There are two aspects here- the virus and the economy. It’s clear the economy will take longer to recover- years. The virus?- watch what happens in China. That will tell us a lot.

18 months