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How long are you expecting this to go on for?

372 replies

DennisReynoldsDuster · 20/03/2020 21:59

Just curious. Friends seem to think it will all be fine again by May, I kind of feel like we will be lucky if we are “back to normal” by Christmas.

And by “this” I mean businesses shut and social distancing etc

OP posts:
Hugglespuffed · 22/03/2020 18:28

I assume that before a vaccine is available, home testing kits will be available? Meaning we can minimise risk of spreading that way. Do correct me if I'm wrong!

Bearbehind · 22/03/2020 18:32

I suspect by Christmas we will all be very thin

Every cloud!

Seriously though, stop posting shite like this!

lul37 · 22/03/2020 18:37

I had a nice dream yesterday where everyone in the country got tested with their passports at the GP and the country was split into corona and corona free zones, where kids could go to school safely and people were free to walk outside and live normally, army was deployed in zones to stop the infected trying to cross over to the other side, was actually depressed when I woke up as it seemed so realConfused

ALongHardWinter · 22/03/2020 19:19

I'm guessing probably September/October. Although some predictions have said 18 months,heaven help us.

Rachel1874 · 22/03/2020 19:21

@Hugglespuffed I believe these are being looked into and if they work boris said they will buy millions.

keffie12 · 22/03/2020 19:48

We will in be lock down sooner rather than later I think. People are just ignoring the social distancing.

I am hoping by the end of May, cos it's all about me you see (I am joking) as due on vacation mid June. Think that going to be off this year though I'm not canceling yet

I think they are going to have to lockdown completely to get a handle on this

I can't work out if people are stupid naive or what with what is going on with so many acting as normal

My dear friend works on the collation of medical worldwide information for a specialist company.

This is the 5th virus in 15 to 20 years. We have had MERS, Swine flu, SARS, Ebola and none of them were found vaccinations for.

Covid19 is just another strain which is far more contagious and fast moving

They all come from the Corona umbrella group which flu and the common cold come from. This is another mutation of the group

Hugglespuffed · 22/03/2020 20:00

@Rachel1874 I truly hope so. I've had 2 huge holidays (1 to visit a family member) cancelled so far and potentially 3 cancelled weddings. However none of that matters as much as that ive found out I'm becoming an Auntie in October and in a purely selfish manner, I will be heartbroken if I can't meet the baby until next year :(
Again totally selfish and I'd rather everyone is healthy and I'm seriously panicked about the virus and all the lives being lost so facetime will do. But I would love for a home testing kit to be available.

Teddybear27 · 22/03/2020 20:03

I seriously hope this will not going on longer than 12 weeks, I can't mentally cope with thinking that this will go on longer than that and as others say it will not be good for our mental health. On the plus side I have got loads of books to read so every cloud!... i think we just have to take this day by day, be kind, only buy what you need. Hubby and I had to queue for 30 mins this morning just to get into our local Tesco as they were only letting 10 people in at a time and when we did there were quite a lot of empty shelves... take care everyone....

Meinmytree · 22/03/2020 20:04

China is starting to come out of lockdown, with reports of no new cases. Other than Wuhan it was a 50 day lockdown, so a maybe an indication of how long we'll be like that for? People have been saying that in Wuhan they acted quickly in going into lockdown... did they really? It was detected in December, the doctor was silenced, it was already escalating for Chinese New Year and people were allowed to travel which is what caused it to explode.

Whilst our measures may not seem like we've done enough, actually have we done more earlier? Other countries have done more still early on, Poland went into lockdown very early on because they knew their health care system is nowhere near good enough to cope.

People say we're two weeks behind Italy. But Italy has a very diverse demographic to ours. They have one of the oldest populations in Spain. It is common to have multiple generations living together, so the young spreading it easily to their grandparents, whereas here many of us have our grandparents safely in care homes, sheltered accommodation etc which are now on lockdown - the sheltered accommodation my granny lives in has put in restrictions several weeks ago. The smoking rate in Italy is far higher than here, and they've said that that is one of the key factors. Same for Spain, when I lived there I forever had coughs and colds because of the sheer amount of second hand smoke I was exposed to all the time. So actually, will we follow on as they have?

I went to Asda earlier (I had to do my normal shop), and it was far quieter than expected, it was quite easy to keep a distance from people. And when I went for my run this evening the streets were eerily quiet, are people finally listening?

I am trying to stay optimistic. I may go insane otherwise.

Rowan8 · 22/03/2020 20:29

Also think 12-18 months, thing like all viruses, is this now here to stay and could be recurring..?? We have no idea... 🥺

Kljnmw3459 · 22/03/2020 20:34

It might be wishful thinking but I'm hoping that we get to return to normal by end of may. Or at least will be out of the inevitable lockdown.

Hugglespuffed · 22/03/2020 20:41

@Meinmytree I have to politely disagree. We may be doing things sooner than china but not soon enough. The virus came from there and so it was new. And people were still learning about it all. We KNOW how easily it spreads and how many people it is killing off, our hospitals can't cope as it is, people are dying. Why shouldn't stricter measures be put in place sooner? Why wait until 1000s are dead. I think it is shocking. The economy is already fucked. People aren't taking social distancing seriously and therefore stricter measures need to be in place sooner.

EmpressoftheMundane · 22/03/2020 21:00

I think the economy and people's patience will buckle before the actual need for social distancing ends. News reports say this problem will last 18 months. I think the public mood will change before the actual risk does!

Retired65 · 22/03/2020 21:04

I think it will go on until they develop a vaccine, so we are talking about a year to eighteen months.

Rachel709 · 22/03/2020 21:21

Months and months.

Rachel709 · 22/03/2020 21:24

It isn't just our country. The whole world needs to lock down until this thing dies out or there is a vaccine. Otherwise it will just start up again .

rainbowbear10 · 22/03/2020 21:38

Scary to think it will last a year or more I would hope we would be over the worst of it by summer .. but i cant see the warmer weather killing the virus either when you look at the same is now happening in Australia.

A total ban on travelling abroad for 6-9 months might help stop it comming back.

rosieposie2 · 22/03/2020 21:40

If it does go on for months and months how long before gp’s and hospitals will be back to normal and appointments can go ahead?

WhentheDealGoesDown1 · 22/03/2020 21:50

I suspect by Christmas we will all be very thin and quite hungry.

I suspect the opposite and many will emerge out of this a couple of stones heavier through eating the wrong sort of food and lack of exercise

Cam2020 · 22/03/2020 21:51

The sooner knobheads keep congregating, the sooner it'll be over.

I agree it'll come back, but we should (hopefully). Have a vaccine by then a roll out a programme similar to the fly one.

Cam2020 · 22/03/2020 21:53

stop not keep!

OJZJ · 22/03/2020 22:10

On the positive side-and I realise this sounds totally flippant. The skies are wonderfully clear on a night due to less pollution as seen from both space and stood looking up at them from my doorstep....
I worry it will be pandemonium esp when the food and goods runs out and a certain element will start robbing houses/people and intimidation (yes specific to my area sadly as I am not of the natural socioeconomic demographic of MN )
I am grateful for the fact we have a benefits system but worry how the he'll we are going to pay for it and it's all going to come crashing down and I am even more grateful for the nhs and even more scared of when this also comes crashing down. I have watched too many apocalyptic programmes in my youth and seriously think those of us without our bunkers and mass food and water provisions are all going to perish miserably and yes I have burst into tears of absolute panic and worry as I am I the high risk category and a single parent/legal guardian with no family to a child that has additional needs.
Sorry if I sound crazy but been under house arrest by a child and as from tomorrow got another 12 weeks of it.
Plus like others I think it will die down then peak again, possibly wirh return of schooling then winter

spirdygirdy · 22/03/2020 22:21

@rosieposie2 we've been told to expect 3-6 months at least before we can start doing routine appointments again. Maybe longer. I'm a bit 😱 about this because if my patients can do without me for that long...there probably isn't any point to what I do.

dontgobaconmyheart · 22/03/2020 22:34

The UCL report re: modelling of the virus is quite a convincing read. It seems to ultimately suggest that IF we COMPLETELY isolate we can flatten the curve. The modelling used references measures being relaxed in September of this year for a period of time, after which cases will climb again to similar levels- obviously with the caveat that we actually bloody do isolation properly, and with the purpose of reducing death as its aim, give the hospitals the chance to treat and help the currently sick with the primary aim being to reduce the death rate, rather than with the aim of reducing the no. of cases or any pipe dreams of it just disappearing-before we relax the rules again and there are beds for the new cases come autumn 2020 when it climbs back up after social distancing is relaxed.

They predict up to 18 months for a vaccine, which will be when this presumably has any hope of actually ending in any sort of permanence. I am personally assuming this will be our landscape for some time and cannot imagine any scenario where we are relaxing this in 12 weeks, especially with the way people are carrying on. Am fully assuming it will be extended by much longer, and enforced more heavily.

Justaboy · 22/03/2020 23:10

Make no apliogies for citing this report just out ther eis a fulkl PDF on this link but the last aprt of it is here.

www.mediterranee-infection.com/hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin-as-a-treatment-of-covid-19/

Such results are promising and open the possibility of an international strategy to decisionmakers to fight this emerging viral infection in real-time even if other strategies and research including vaccine development could be also effective, but only in the future.

We therefore recommend that COVID-19 patients be treated with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to cure their infection and to limit the transmission of the virus to other people in order to curb the spread of COVID-19 in the world. Further works are also warranted to determine if these compounds could be useful as chemoprophylaxis to prevent the transmission of the virus, especially for healthcare workers. Our study has some limitations including a small sample size, limited long-term outcome follow-up, and dropout of six patients from the study,
however in the current context, we believe that our results should be shared with the scientific community.

All are early days but vaccines are around a year off unless they want to short circuit the safety in humans testing.

Remdesivir the intresting anti-viral is getting a victim of its own promised sucess!

www.statnews.com/2020/03/22/gilead-suspends-access-to-experimental-covid-19-drug-remdesivir/