How long are you expecting this to go on for?

[DennisReynoldsDuster]

Just curious. Friends seem to think it will all be fine again by May, I kind of feel like we will be lucky if we are “back to normal” by Christmas.

And by “this” I mean businesses shut and social distancing etc

ChipotleBlessing Yes it does look good. Odeley enough theres a bit on Bloomberg saying how one of the drugs used causes a lot of problems and is very toxic yada yada..

That dosn't seem to be the case on every other website, surely not big pharma upset as they might be missing out on their new unproven very expensive profitable drugs, surely not?.

In view that vaccines may well be a year or so away we need a treatment now.

Whats needed is a very rapid test for COVID-19 that can tell you more or less rightaway that your in the early stages of infection.

Then apart from the treatment mention ealier there are a few broad specrtum anti-virals that can at that stage stop the virus multiplying get that done then and you'll stop it.

The drugs mentioned have been around sometime, all of them. A vaccine takes time to devlop but progress has bene very rapid but the main problem is that trials need to be done to make sure that no damage is done with them. There was a vaccine that IIRC was used for HIV (might be wrong on that) but one vacc for that caused cases of narcolepsy, another one didnt.

Hope that attached image shows up but heres a graph of the effectivnes of the antimalerial and antibotic. One is effective add the other its a game changer!

people are disagreeing with the 2 year thing because pp have stated this is what has been talked about in press conferences when this is not correct. It was me that said I was basing it on what has been said on press conferences. People are misunderstanding me. My fault. I was looking for a sensible discussion, a place to ponder.

I have not asserted that anyone there said "This will go on for 2 years". I got that time scale from the details they gave re timelines for antibody tests , possible (but not inevitable) vaccines and expected infection spikes.

Along with a lot of other details about possible reinfection, mutation, etc etc.

From all that has been said it is not impossible that we will be hearing about this for a couple of years. The UK is set for repeated strengthening and slackening of restrictions, as our model aims to manage the NHS capacity. So we have a few months of immediate actions - that 12 weeks BJ kept mentioning. After that, depending on the infection rates, seasonal effects, NHS capacity ect etc, we will have other measures in place, on and off, as and when.

And then there will be the responses to the re-opening of international borders... and a whole host of other issues we probably have not thought of yet!

I wasn't doom mongering, nor mis stating anything. Just extrapolating and pondering!

Again, my apologies. This was the wrong place, wrong time!

@CuriousaboutSamphire you’re absolutely right and I wish folk would understand this. The people wailing about the entire country being in full lockdown for 2 years are not reading what these reports actually say, and spreading panic to boot. The world will not shut up shop for 2 years - the economy wouldn’t survive. You’d have mass suicide. Short sharp burst at the start and on-off again restrictions, mostly lesser than in the initial phase, is what’s being proposed.

Eh it was curious about samphire that was the one who said it would last two years, he or she is now trying to justify that position. As people are getting pig sick of the scare mongering on here.

12 months at best and that's if a vaccine is made and widely distributed. Then they'll be a recession

I think we are probably talking of at least 8 weeks of stringent measures - but probably not more than 16, followed by an extended period of time (maybe more than a year) of less strict measures, with maybe the odd period of more stringent ones within that time.

The reality for me is I don’t think Boris would have given a time line if he didn’t believe it to be remotely possible.

Thing is, a couple of weeks ago (when they were still looking at herd immunity) they were saying 12-14 weeks to the peak. What Boris has said is not that different - "turn the tide" in 12 weeks really just means that in 12 weeks we will reach the peak, and then the cases will slowly start to reduce. Not that it will be all better in 12 weeks.

I have no idea what you are reading into my posts Bluntness.

I have explained, twice. I have looked at previous pandemics and it isn't out of proportion, Spanish Flu had a 2 year time span and, as I did type, has varying intensities in infection spikes. It is not inconceivable that this will follow a similar pattern.

I'll say it again: we will probably have a short, intense period of infections and measures to control it. Further measures will depend on a wide range of variables and may, depending entirely on those variables, last for many months. It is reasonable to think/ hope that later measures will be far less wide ranging than those we are seeing today.

Insisting it will be over by Christmas, or whenever, is a comforting thought, but may not be any more realistic than accepting that it may be around for much longer.

A lot depends on whether Boris says we have to go into some sort of lockdown.

I think if he does then life will have some normality maybe by June/July. If he doesn't bring in any sort of lockdown or leaves it much longer then it will take longer.

Back to how we were though could take a good couple of years. I doubt we will ever get back to things being the same. So many businesses will go bust and, obviously, unemployment is going to be sky high.

I also think, sadly, that despite the measures being brought in, lots of people are going to lose their houses whether owners or renters.

It’s not going to be a year.

If something isn’t done within the next couple of months people will stop social distancing, everything will go back to how it was, the virus will spread quicker, everybody that’s going to catch it will catch it, most will recover, many will die, but it will come to a head quicker than a year.

Sorry if I sound dim, but what happens with these viruses in the end, do they just burn themselves out, or unless a vacine becomes available do they just carry on and on and possibly become less contagious?

moondance19 Nobody really knows yet.
It's possible that people develop immunity but there are no long term studies.

i have looked at previous pandemics and it isn't out of proportion, Spanish Flu had a 2 year time span

Spanish flu was more than a hundred years ago. Medicine has come along way since then. [confused ]

Look you believe it is two years if you wish, we can only wait and see. For me I think there is a very good chance they will be able to treat this effectively in the next few weeks.

I guess we are the two sides of the one coin. I’m an optimist and I trust the scientific community, you’re a pessimist and do not, and for some reason feel a pandemic over a hundred years ago is something to base time lines on.

For all our sakes I hope I’m correct and you are not.

Medicine has come a long way in 100 years but so has worldwide travel, and, one could also argue, human stupidity.

Also not beyond the realms of science to assume that viruses have got better at transmission.

Moondance I'm guessing that we all just build up an immunity to it over the years.

Were due to reach a peak in May/June.If we do flatten the curve there will be less deaths bit it will go on for longer.
I don't think people will be self restrained enough though,we are only a few weeks in the effect of school closures on Monday has suddenly caused an inability to amuse your children for s normal weekend(which usually involves staying in because it is raining.)

Well the good news is I think today we deviated from the Italian curve.

If we follow China as an example they are just starting to venture back outside in Beijing now

I’d say we need to write off April and May with hopefully things getting back to some sort of normality during June

Kids will not return to school until September at earliest

I’m hoping it will ease off in August maybe a bit but will start again next season . I think we are in for several years of some restrictions,. I doubt we will ever go back to normal we will have a new normal .

I think the world will be a very different place in 18 months when the worst of the virus waves are finished with.

I suspect by Christmas we will all be very thin and quite hungry.

The awful weather around the globe has effectively put warning signs up for crop problems everywhere.

We should all be growing food now, even if it's only a few seeds in a border in the garden. Get hold of a fruit tree. Get hold of tomato plants off a friend who's over-sown.

The virus has already impacted on the amount of food we're buying. A billion more in the last couple of weeks is not sat in homes. And an awful lot of it will get binned I suspect as people realise the 6 loaves in their freezer was not a good idea.

We will have deaths from the virus in each of the waves and people will be sick of the staying in. I suspect at some point people who can't abide being inside either on their own or with family, will go a bit crazy.

We haven't learnt about shutting down air travel yet. There are still flights going on and bits of the EU are sending home non-nationals because they don't want them there during this crisis.

The Darwinian stupidity of humanity - look up the 'hug a Chinese person' videos in Northern Italy - is there for all to see. Along with the massive crowds on beaches in Australia and UK towns and tourist attractions, these show we are oblivious to danger.

I think this will be as huge as any of the Great Wars, and I hope that it doesn't last as long.

What is the South Korea model? I am very aware they seem to have dealt with it in an effective way keeping numbers down?

do they just carry on and on and possibly become less contagious?
generally, as the parasite adapts to it's host it becomes less harmful to the host, it may well attenuate to the level of the common cold, it's ability to infect may not reduce but pathogenicity likely will.
We all live in symbiosis with vast amounts of microbes

If people follow social distancing advice - and people aren't at the moment - we should peak at the end of April and be back to zero new cases end of July / beginning of August. That's following the patterns and timings of other countries.
In China the police & the army were dragging people off the streets. We don't operate the same way & many of our wonderful public have no common sense, so it could be later in the year.

Crikey, lots of scaremongering here. It’s not going to go on for years, it will not be a huge as one of the world wars. This is a very serious situation but come on, take it down a notch!

My initial thought was some form of normality by end of April. However we are still not in lock down and there are still idiots doing whatever they bloody want because they are invincible.