The next 18 months for all of us - here is the science

[EasterEggz]

If you haven't read this, now is the time. It explains exactly what the next 18 months are going to look like, why the government has switched from 'mitigation' to 'suppression', and what it means for all of us.

www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3PQSzpObyq-ULWzwsNKvDHwPhri47wEsJSDqEJYX0dTzIw1JQc6wVSGCE

To crudely summarise... Be prepared for a long term change in our lifestyles, lasting until Summer 2021. The first wave will be suppression until July 2020, including school and university closures after Easter. There will then be a brief respite over late July / August to allow people a few more freedoms before the suppress measures come back in the Autumn. The suppress measures will be implemented thereafter on a rolling basis for shorter intense periods throughout the following year, all in a bid to keep the ICU need below the maximum capacity. It is all explained here.

Just want to point out that socialisation in early childhood isn’t a frivolous thing about fun activities with friends... it has profound implications for personality development and mental health of the individual that are lifelong. This event will have deep repercussions lasting decades into the future for all that live through it.

Remdesivir, a drug developed for ebola, is also showing success in China and in Washington.

It has treated people already including several extremely ill folks who were expected to die. It's made by Gilead who are the 5th largest pharmaceutical company globally - they are already upping production.

The hope lies in drugs that can treat it in this immediate wave.

@DangerMouse17
Whether China has lied about numbers is not the key point. Whatever the numbers are, they have moved on to a new phase in the battle against this virus and learning from what they are doing is important as this will be us in two months.

Excellent post OP. Thank you

I think the chief medical officer is actually really clued up and speaks with confidence.

A few months of being locked away is definitely worth it for having a future.

@ShanghaiDiva
Somebody asked why the numbers are so startlingly different. I replied. It's quite simple.

No need for your holier than thou response. I'm fully aware of what the "key points" are.

The hope lies in drugs that can treat it in this immediate wave

Exactly and then a vaccine for the longer term to prevent. They just need people to comply with what they have said for the next three months, keep as many alive as possible , reduce the spread to enable that, give the nhs a chance, and them hopefully they can treat it, and then vaccinate against it

However they can’t say, look we might be able to cure this in a few weeks, because everyone will ignore the advice and crack on as usual and hundreds of thousands will die, the nhs crippled, it will spread like wild fire, before we hit the stage where we can treat it.

Just in: a team of Hungarian scientists successfully isolated the coronavirus. Now they can work on developing the vaccine.

I’m seriously worried about the state of my mental health if this goes on for 18 months. I barely made it through mat leave in one piece and we could go out and see people then.

I wish they would just get going with widespread testing like South Korea. I’ve had to mute so many people on Facebook who are just revelling in this, like it’s the most exciting thing that’s ever happened to them.

Take it a day at a time, Agent. And anyone else worrying about the longer term implications. It is natural to want to try and know how things will pan out - and sometimes important to try and see if we can mitigate the impact - but in terms of emotional/imagined responses, you can only do one day at a time.

Realistically, the situation is changing all the time, too.

One day at a time - one minute at a time, sometimes.

I’m sorry but it’s outrageous to call that document “science.” That is mathematical modelling and it is full of assumptions based on nothing. The assumptions are literally hypothetical, plucked out of air. Completely fine when doing modelling, suppose it’s done all the time. But not fine when you’re dealing with a pandemic and you’re refusing to test the population so the numbers fit your mathematical modelling.

These are such worrying times.

Apart from all of the threat to life and the economy, I'm also worried about my DD who is due to stay school in September. I wonder what will happen :(

@Kalifa and a Canadian team did the same 4 days ago? That is just one small step.

There’s a article that explains further why it’s significant... “The accomplishment means that researchers who are looking to test screening methods, therapies and vaccines now have Canadian sources that can provide access to the global pathogen without them having to undertake the complicating step of shipping live virus across international borders.”

So it’s significant for a Hungarian team to have done the same as they don’t need to ship a live virus.

@Kalifa
The US has started testing a vaccine on humans. So Hungary is trailing behind.

Here is link tonTelegraph article. The US started human tests of a corona virus vaccine yesterday.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/17/us-scientists-start-human-trial-coronavirus-vaccine/

The EU also announced this vaccine may be ready by this autumn if the trials go well.

How does vaccine testing on humans work? I understand the article says monitor them for a year, but firstly why so long and secondly, I get they need to have no adverse effects but surely they need to show that the vaccine is effective and they can’t actually get the virus?

@DangerMouse17
I am not being holier than thou and no need to be rude to me.
I am stating what is happening in China at the moment as the uk will face the same challenges.

Why are our predicted deaths so much more than China ???? 😣😣😣 I don't get it ! Isn't China on something like 3000+ deaths At the moment and they're past their peak, so why is our peak estimated at 12,000 deaths per day????

i don't think there will be a vaccine in time but I am hopeful that there may be a reasonably successful antiviral treatment found by the end of the summer ( well hoping anyway). That will make all the difference and with that we will be able to hold off the majority of deaths until there is a vaccine

Loppy10Even with the suppression measures the govt predict that at the peak we will have around 12,000 COVID deaths per day. It's horrific to think about

What the hell are you on about?!?!

@fogginghell China is not known for their honesty in journalism and reporting unfortunately..

We are not predicting 12000 a day? Can people not understand what the worst case of no measures taken is and that it is not a prediction.

This articale isn't that long and is worth a read on how they have got this far their hoping to do human trials in June!..

www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/cambridge-research-team-working-towards-vaccine-against-covid-19

There is already human trials under way.