The next 18 months for all of us - here is the science

[EasterEggz]

If you haven't read this, now is the time. It explains exactly what the next 18 months are going to look like, why the government has switched from 'mitigation' to 'suppression', and what it means for all of us.

www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3PQSzpObyq-ULWzwsNKvDHwPhri47wEsJSDqEJYX0dTzIw1JQc6wVSGCE

To crudely summarise... Be prepared for a long term change in our lifestyles, lasting until Summer 2021. The first wave will be suppression until July 2020, including school and university closures after Easter. There will then be a brief respite over late July / August to allow people a few more freedoms before the suppress measures come back in the Autumn. The suppress measures will be implemented thereafter on a rolling basis for shorter intense periods throughout the following year, all in a bid to keep the ICU need below the maximum capacity. It is all explained here.

I got linked today this document. And it filled me with dread.

They are trialling the use of Tocilizumab in Poland (maybe elsewhere as well). It is used for acute rheumatoid arthritis usually. Intravenous and only for hospital use. Very expensive. May be working.

@cansu everyone's concerns are valid. Just because people are sad about "frivolous" things like their child's social development or the cancellation of a gig they were looking forward to, doesn't mean that they're not concerned about serious illness and death.

This is going to hugely impact on all of us in ways we probably haven't even thought of. We're allowed to be disappointed.

China which is now getting back to normal after 4 months

Do you really believe everything that China tells you is actually correct? 🤦‍♀️ Take the news from here (China) with a huge scoop of salt! I very much doubt China is anywhere near “back to normal” .

I posted upthread re what is happening in my area of China.
Not normal, but some hopeful signs for independent restaurants that are now allowed to open and not just offer takeaway.

Actually Blusteryshowers. Of course they can be disappointed and worried. I am too but I am focusing on the bigger picture and whether we can go to a gig or a playgroup seems so ridiculous in this context.

I know it sounds ridiculously selfish but young children are only young for so long. And I know I’m just tired and anxious but it breaks my heart to think that this may well be life until he goes to school. So many of the things we did together no longer possible.

Of course I am a lot more concerned about keeping people alive but I’m not sorry that I feel sad that this is what his pre school years may look like.

The internet while not ideal is great for kids socialising. Do you have kids living next door? Maybe they can play together (but separately) by guessing where each other is in their garden?

The bit that is continuing to puzzle me- why no mass testing? If a vaccine is months away, surely testing is the next best thing? What about the regular colds and flu that will still be in society- if you could eliminate whether it was covid strain you had by testing when a new cough appears or temp, life could continue for the walking well to keep industries and society ticking over. If you develop symptoms, could a test be arranged via your GP, but not in person at surgery obviously or officially distributed like vaccines. Why is this not happening already other than in hospital when symptoms are severe. Surely we’d accrue data on possible immune communities? It just feels never ending otherwise and as pp noted, most people’s mental health will be in tatters 18months on from this point.

@Loppy10

Where do you get that statistic from? By 'we' do you mean the whole global population, or just the UK?

Just make me aware plx. So if we self isolate and stop corona spreading gr8 but when we return to normal it spreads again ? So why isolate and shut pubs

The press conference is on going now. Chief medical officer has specifically alluded to the fact there may be drugs already that can treat this.

Clearly the vaccine is the end goal, prevention always being better than cure, but that could be a year or more.

Basically he is saying they want to suppress it for three months, then slowly release it back into the community in a controlled manner and see what happens. Basically want China is doing now, and then either lock down again, or clearly if we have a cure (, a way to treat it) it becomes easier to manage it, with the end goal the vaccine to prevent it.

Let's hope one of the existing drugs helps.

AgentCooper
I completely agree with you. My DS loves playing with other children at nursery, playgroups and play dates. The thought of stopping all that for months and months on end breaks my heart.
It's hard enough as an adult to stop social contact, I am going to really miss interacting with clients and colleagues at work, as well as seeing family and friends.
But young children won't even understand why.

@Healthyandhappy

If we slow down the spread so that everybody gets it, but over a longer period of time, then many lives will be saved, compared to if we do not slow down the spread and everybody gets it at the same time.

The lives that will be saved are the lives of people who can survive, but only if they get hospital care.

That will be mostly older people, or people who already have an illness, but it will also include very large numbers of young, fit and healthy people.

It appears as though most people of all ages who get this will have mild disease and will get well on their own, and it seems that some people die regardless of how well cared for they are. However, there are potentially millions of people in that middle ground who can survive if, and only if, we can slow down the spread and reduce the "peak" number of people who get this any one time, so that each of them can get the best possible care.

This can only be accomplished through dramatic social distancing measures that we have never seen before. The good news, though, is that perhaps for the first time in history, we can use those measures, so we have a chance to reduce the death rate, if we all do our part.

See www.flattenthecurve.com/ for more details. Disclaimer: it's not my website, but I'm convinced that if we do what's on it, then we can save lives.

@Timefor45 I don't know why there is not more testing in the UK, but I would guess that there just is not enough testing capacity to test everybody who has the relevant symptoms, and that they prioritised testing people in hospital because an unidentified COVID19 infection in a hospital is more deadly, to multiple people, compared to an unidentified COVID19 infection for an individual at home who should be self isolating anyway.

Bluntness100 "Right now there is rhe suggestion that two drugs in existence, already approved by the fda for human use, may cure it, malaria and hiv drugs,"

Not just by the FDA. Kaletra (Lopinavir / Ritonavir) for HIV and Chloroquine for Malaria are also approved for use by / in the EU. There are clinical trials going on in China with very limited clinical evidence that they help against Coronavirus. I see Elon Musk is tweeting about them as a possible breakthrough. The jury is still out about that.

@Happyandhealthy because the main, number 1 goal is to keep the number of ICU patients below the NHS's peak ICU capacity at any one time. You can only achieve this if you drastically reduce the number of people with the disease at any one time, by social distancing, isolation and so on.

Meant to say the evidence from some of the earlier clinical trials in China. There are newer trials globally as it has spread.

Yes there are clearly a whole bunch of drug trails and testing going on across the world and they are racing to find a solution. Of course we are all hoping something can be done more quickly. But I'm afraid we can't rely on this working within 18 months, as advised by the WHO.

www.theweek.co.uk/coronavirus/106187/why-do-vaccines-take-so-long-to-produce

@Loppy10 that's what I don't get... 12000 deaths per day??? China has had ~8000 deaths, with a much much larger population, why does our government think our deaths are going to be so much greater?

China has lied about the number!

The chief scientific officer, as said stated, they think there are drugs to treat this, clearly the holy grail is a vaccine to prevent but if they can cure it or treat it, it’s the second best.

Basically from what I can see they are shutting us down for three months. Protect the population. Reduce demand on the NHS, reduce deaths.

Then they remove slowly the restrictions for two months as China is now. We will soon find out if it bounces back or if it is pretty much eliminated in China.

This gives them three to five months from now to be able to treat it and cure it and prevent deaths, this is not implausible. Obviously they don’t want to treat it, they want to prevent it, but if they can treat it and prevent deaths if it comes back. Then this gives them the time to develop the vaccine, and start vaccinating those most at risk.

Obviously they might not be able to treat it, or it might bounce back worse than ever, but right now we have everything to play for.

It’s not twelve thousand a day they think if we all comply they can keep deaths to below twenty thousand in total. Which is huge but considering 8000 die a year from flu it puts it into context.

Perfect!! A nice, succinct summary! I'll read it when I've got 2 hours, in 2028